Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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Table 13. Performance of trade in services in BSEC (2003-05)
Description
ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRE ROM RUS TUR UKR
M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X
Transportation - + - - + - + + + - - - + - + + + + + -
Travel + + - + + + - - - - - - + + + + - + + +
Construction - - - - + + - - - + - + + + + + - - - +
Insurance + + + + + + - + + - + + - - + + + + - +
Financial + - - + + + + - + + - - + + + + - + + +
Computer & information + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + +
Royalties and license fees - - + + - + + - - + - + + + + - + + + +
Other business + + + + - + + + - - + - + + - + - - - +
Personal, cultural & recreational + + - + - + - - + + - - - - + + - - + +
Other + + + + + + - - + + - - - - + + - - + +
Note: M denotes import performance vis-à-vis world import growth, while X denotes export performance vis-à-vis
world export growth. + denotes a performance which outstrips world growth, while “–“ denotes a performance
which is worse than world growth.
Source: Calculation by the author based on statistics from ITC, WTO and IMF
Using the same methodology employed for the trade flow analysis of goods, namely
comparing the export of services for one country with the import of services of another
country, one can compute an approximate indicative trade potential between two countries. A
major limitation of this approach is that the level of aggregation of services is relatively high,
leading to an overestimation bias. Moreover, services are far more differentiated than goods,
and thus this methodology needs to be further corroborated with qualitative information in the
respective countries. Finally, the statistics for trade in services are far less reliable than is the
case for goods (see box 3).
Box 3. Source of statistics on trade in services and data availability
The data on Services used in our analysis are based on WTO, IMF, OECD and Eurostat
data, at different levels of detail and aggregation. No data are available for Moldova and
Serbia & Montenegro, while all the other BSEC countries reported data on trade flow and
growth in all key sectors in Services for the last 5 years. Eurostat sources for 2005 for the
sector “Other Services” corresponds to 2004 figures, and WTO sources for 2005 are not
updated for Armenia and Georgia in three sectors (Transportation, Travel and Other
commercial services). For these three sectors, 2004 estimates are used.
The result for the BSEC region as a whole is that there is a major overlap of trade flows and
that the current export capacity in services could be absorbed by BSEC member states which
import those same services. The breakdown of services suggests that the highest intra-
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