Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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. Table of Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 7 I. BSEC Economic Performance and Trade Cooperation .................................................................. 13 I.1. Trade and Investment Context .................................................................................. 13 I.2. Background to Trade and Investment Cooperation in the BSEC region .................. 18 II. Trade Potential and Opportunities for Growth ................................................................................. 20 II.1. Salient features of intra-BSEC trade in goods ......................................................... 20 II.2. Actual and potential intra-BSEC trade in goods ....................................................... 29 II.3. Trade preferences in BSEC ..................................................................................... 37 II.4. Services .................................................................................................................... 40 III. Investment Potential ......................................................................................................................... 59 III.1. Investment in the BSEC .......................................................................................... 59 III.2. Climate for investment ............................................................................................. 61 III.3. Sectoral opportunities .............................................................................................. 64 IV. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 75 References ............................................................................................................................................. 77 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................. 81 Annex 1. Trade Indicators ......................................................................................................... 82 Annex 2. Methodology for calculating trade potential and results ............................................. 95 Annex 2.1. Methodological aspects of Gravity Equations ......................................................... 95 Annex 2.2. Methodological aspects of Trade Flow Analysis ..................................................... 97 Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equation Trade Simulations ....................................................... 98 Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow Analysis for top 300 products ............................................ 104 Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow Analysis for top 500 products ............................................ 115 Annex 3. Transition Indicators computed by the EBRD .......................................................... 133 2/135
List of Tables Table 1. Basic structural indicators of transition BSEC economies, 2005 ................................ 15 Table 2. Indicators of performance of BSEC (2005) ................................................................. 17 Table 3. Selection of 10 key sectors for intra-regional trade flows (2005) ................................ 20 Table 4. Major exporters in BSEC for key sectors (2005) ......................................................... 22 Table 5. Major importers in BSEC for key sectors (2005) ......................................................... 22 Table 6. Trade Complementarity in BSEC (2005)..................................................................... 24 Table 7. Revealed Comparative Advantage for Selected Industries in BSEC (2005) .............. 25 Table 8. Trade intensity for Selected Industries in BSEC (2005).............................................. 28 Table 9. Bilateral untapped trade potential for in BSEC (2005) ................................................ 29 Table 10. Summary of intra-regional trade potential by sectors using gravity equation ........... 30 Table 11. Twenty five products with the highest indicative intra-regional trade potential ......... 32 Table 12. Selected Peaks, Maxima and Minima Tariffs in BSEC, 2006 ................................... 39 Table 13. Performance of trade in services in BSEC (2003-05) ............................................... 42 Table 14a. Indicative Service Export Potential for Albania to the BSEC region (2005) ............ 44 Table 14b. Indicative Service Export Potential for Armenia to the BSEC region (2005)........... 44 Table 14c. Indicative Service Export Potential for Azerbaijan to the BSEC region (2005) ....... 45 Table 14d. Indicative Service Export Potential for Bulgaria to the BSEC region (2005)........... 45 Table 14e. Indicative Service Export Potential for Georgia to the BSEC region (2005) ........... 46 Table 14f. Indicative Service Export Potential for Greece to the BSEC region (2005) ............. 46 Table 14g. Indicative Service Export Potential for Romania to the BSEC region (2005).......... 47 Table 14h. Indicative Service Export Potential for Russia to the BSEC region (2005) ............. 47 Table 14i. Indicative Service Export Potential for Turkey to the BSEC region (2005) .............. 48 Table 14j. Indicative Service Export Potential for Ukraine to the BSEC region (2005)............. 48 Table 15a. Albania’s Commitments in trade in services at the WTO ........................................ 51 Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitments in trade in services at the WTO ....................................... 52 Table 15c. Georgia’s Commitments in trade in services at the WTO ....................................... 53 3/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 18 and 19: % of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 22 and 23: . II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
Page 24 and 25: . As mentioned earlier, the major e
Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 30 and 31: j j . x is the value of total expo
Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
Page 52 and 53: . divided by each mode of supply, f
Page 54 and 55:
. Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
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. Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
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. Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
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. Other commercial services (which
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. Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
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. In terms of existence of a legal
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. III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
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. service sector (retail, business
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. Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
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. Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
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. Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
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. 74/135
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. of trade in services performance,
Page 80 and 81:
. Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
Page 82 and 83:
. World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
Page 84 and 85:
. Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
Page 86 and 87:
. Table A2. Major Import Partners f
Page 88 and 89:
. Table A4. Major Import by Product
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Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. country I and country j’s capit
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. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
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. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
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. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
Page 106:
. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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107/135
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109/135
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111/135
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113/135
Page 117:
Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. 118/135
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. 120/135
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. 122/135
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. 124/135
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. 126/135
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. 128/135
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. 130/135
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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