Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

. Table 10 provides a summary of the results of the gravity equation, detailed by principal exporting sectors and for each individual country in BSEC. The results suggest that a large number of countries in the region are not exporting as much as would theoretically be expected. For example, Serbia and Montenegro are very much under exporting food and beverage products to the BSEC, while Ukraine has the potential to export far more agricultural products to BSEC. Reasons for which countries in the region may be under exporting in these sectors might include a lack of trade information, supply side constraints, non-tariff barriers and transportation issues. Nevertheless, these are sectors which should be further investigated and promoted for intra-regional trade since if trade facilitation measures were to be adopted, one would expect a large increase in trade in these sectors. Table 10. Summary of intra-regional trade potential by sectors using gravity equation Exporting countries Sectors ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MDA ROM RUS SEM TUR UKR Agriculture and hunting Forestry and Fishing Food and beverages Machinery and equipment Electrical and electronic equipment Precision instruments Motor vehicles & other trans equip. Other manufacturing Recycling Textiles, clothing and leather Wood and wood products Publishing, print. & recorded media Chemicals and chemical products Rubber and plastic products Non-metallic mineral products Metal and metal products Note: Untapped export potential to: : Up to 2 countries : Up to 4 countries : Up to 6 countries : Above 6 countries Source: ITC TradeSim, 2006 30/135
A more detailed analysis of the indicative intra-regional trade potential can be undertaken using a trade flow analysis. The trade flow analysis computes the sub-regional exports to the world and imports from the world for each country in the region at the most detailed level of classification available 7 . Thus for over 5,000 product groups, the indicative trade potential has been calculated when one country is an exporter of the product group, while another country is an importer of that same product group. Since the level of disaggregation is relatively high, the complementarity for trading between partner countries is considered to be relatively high. Obviously, even at this detailed level, products may not be perfect substitutes, but are considered to be closely approximate substitutes (see Annex 2.2 for details on the methodology for trade flow analyses). The indicative trade potential has been computed for the 5,000 product group and ranked from the highest to the lowest. The twenty five products which display the highest intraregional trade potential are given in Table 11. The comparison is also made between what is currently traded between member states of BSEC and what the intra-regional trade potential actually is (indicated as relative indicative trade potential). In the case of motor vehicles (HS87421) for example, the intra-regional trade potential is calculated as US$2.2 billion. However, the region only trades around 5% of this amount so that the relative indicative trade potential is 95%. In the case of Copper, the intra-regional trade potential is calculated as $1.1 billion, which is mainly exported by Russia and Bulgaria. The region’s principal importers of this product group are Turkey and Greece (see Annex 2.3 and 2.4 for detailed tables of results for the 300 highest ranking products). The highest indicative trade potential is primarily in the heavy and high technology manufacturing sectors owing to the large size of trade flows in this area. Russia and Turkey dominate intra-regional export potential while Romania and Ukraine primarily dominate intraregional import potential. However, other smaller countries such as Serbia and Montenegro and Bulgaria have a high indicative export potential. Based on the results of both the gravity equation and the trade flow analysis, there appear to be an enormous untapped intra-regional trade potential which should be the focus of efforts by trade promotion organisations in the BSEC region. 7 The six digit level of the harmonised system of trade classification has been used (referred to as HS6). This is the most detailed level possible for cross country comparison 31/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5: . Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 18 and 19: % of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 22 and 23: . II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
Page 24 and 25: . As mentioned earlier, the major e
Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 30 and 31: j j . x is the value of total expo
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
Page 52 and 53: . divided by each mode of supply, f
Page 54 and 55: . Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
Page 56 and 57: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 58 and 59: . Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
Page 60 and 61: . Other commercial services (which
Page 62 and 63: . Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
Page 64 and 65: . In terms of existence of a legal
Page 66 and 67: . III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
Page 68 and 69: . service sector (retail, business
Page 70 and 71: . Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
Page 72 and 73: . Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
Page 74 and 75: . Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
Page 76 and 77: . 74/135
Page 78 and 79: . of trade in services performance,
Page 80 and 81: . Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
Page 82 and 83:
. World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
Page 84 and 85:
. Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
Page 86 and 87:
. Table A2. Major Import Partners f
Page 88 and 89:
. Table A4. Major Import by Product
Page 90 and 91:
Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
Page 92 and 93:
. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
Page 94 and 95:
. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
Page 96 and 97:
. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
Page 98 and 99:
. country I and country j’s capit
Page 100 and 101:
. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
Page 102 and 103:
. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
Page 104 and 105:
. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
Page 106:
. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
Page 109 and 110:
107/135
Page 111 and 112:
109/135
Page 113 and 114:
111/135
Page 115 and 116:
113/135
Page 117:
Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
Page 120 and 121:
. 118/135
Page 122 and 123:
. 120/135
Page 124 and 125:
. 122/135
Page 126 and 127:
. 124/135
Page 128 and 129:
. 126/135
Page 130 and 131:
. 128/135
Page 132 and 133:
. 130/135
Page 134 and 135:
. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
show all

Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?