Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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j j . x is the value of total exports of BSEC (i); x ij wj is the value of total world exports. An index of more (less) than one indicates a bilateral trade flow that is larger (smaller) than expected, given the partner country’s importance in world trade. Thus, the trade intensity index for each individual BSEC Member State gives an interesting insight into the value of trade of the country within the region in comparison with what should be expected on the basis of its importance in the region. Table 8 below displays the results from Trade Intensity index in the BSEC region at the regional level, and demonstrates a high level of intra-regional trade flow in many sectors (sectors are identified at HS2 level). There is a particularly high concentration of trade in BSEC in fabrics and plastic products. Table A7 in annex 1 gives the trade intensity index values at the level of each individual country. The highest level of trade intensity is recorded for vegetable and fruit for Azerbaijan, beverages in Georgia and Moldova, and animal and vegetable fats in Azerbaijan. Table 8. Trade intensity for Selected Industries in BSEC (2005) HS2 Trade Intensity 27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 4.0 72 Iron and steel 3.5 85 Electrical or electronic machinery and equipment 5.3 87 Vehicles other than Railway, Parts and Accessories 4.2 84 Machinery and Mechanical Appliances, including parts 6.5 44 Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal 3.4 73 Articles of Iron and Steel 5.2 48 Paper & paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 6.8 39 Plastics and articles thereof 8.1 60 Knitted or crocheted fabric 10.8 Source: Authors calculation based on UNSD Comtrade Statistics, 2006 28/135
II.2. Actual and potential intra-BSEC trade in goods A gravity equation is used to identify bilateral untapped trade potential based on the size of the respective economies, their geographical proximity and other factors such as language, historical ties, bilateral applied tariff rates, etc. Annex 2 provides an overview of the model and its uses and limitations. Using a gravity equation we find that there are many key sectors which exhibit an untapped export potential. Ranked by order of the highest untapped export potential, the top sectors are: 1. Textiles, clothing and leather 2. Food and beverage 3. Metal and metal products 4. Agriculture and hunting 5. Machinery and equipment 6. Non-metallic mineral products 7. Vehicles The country which has the highest untapped opportunities by far is Romania. In other words, Romania seems to be very much under trading with other BSEC member countries. A number of other countries also exhibit under performance in terms of the trade flows which would theoretically be expected. The ranking of countries are given in Table 9. Table 9. Bilateral untapped trade potential for in BSEC (2005) Very High untapped trade potential in many markets High untapped trade potential in many markets Opportunities mainly in niche or limited markets Romania Ukraine Armenia Greece Serbia and Montenegro Russia Turkey Moldova Albania Georgia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Source: ITC TradeSim, 2006 29/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5: . Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 18 and 19: % of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 22 and 23: . II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
Page 24 and 25: . As mentioned earlier, the major e
Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
Page 52 and 53: . divided by each mode of supply, f
Page 54 and 55: . Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
Page 56 and 57: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 58 and 59: . Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
Page 60 and 61: . Other commercial services (which
Page 62 and 63: . Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
Page 64 and 65: . In terms of existence of a legal
Page 66 and 67: . III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
Page 68 and 69: . service sector (retail, business
Page 70 and 71: . Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
Page 72 and 73: . Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
Page 74 and 75: . Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
Page 76 and 77: . 74/135
Page 78 and 79: . of trade in services performance,
Page 80 and 81:
. Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
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. World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
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. Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
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. Table A2. Major Import Partners f
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. Table A4. Major Import by Product
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Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. country I and country j’s capit
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. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
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. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
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. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
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. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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107/135
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109/135
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111/135
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113/135
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Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. 118/135
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. 120/135
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. 122/135
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. 124/135
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. 126/135
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. 128/135
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. 130/135
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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