Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

Imports Perspective
.
There are certain countries which do not seem to currently display a very high level of
complementarity. These includes Moldova’s exports and Turkey’s imports (though Turkey’s
exports match closely Moldova’s imports), Armenian exports and Turkey imports, Albania
exports and Ukraine’s imports.
Table 6. Trade Complementarity in BSEC (2005)
Exports Perspective
ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MDA ROM RUS SEM TUR UKR
Albania 37% 31% 38% 56% 37% 65% 36% 61% 52% 64% 49% 47%
Armenia 22% 32% 33% 42% 30% 55% 32% 50% 50% 62% 50% 49%
Azerbaijan 23% 30% 17% 44% 35% 45% 30% 39% 38% 58% 57% 56%
Bulgaria 40% 23% 33% 61% 39% 70% 29% 65% 56% 62% 56% 55%
Georgia 23% 28% 46% 44% 28% 56% 32% 60% 61% 61% 45% 46%
Greece 30% 20% 65% 44% 29% 48% 23% 62% 83% 44% 31% 36%
Moldova 30% 27% 47% 50% 26% 60% 32% 65% 62% 58% 48% 47%
Romania 24% 21% 63% 44% 29% 54% 24% 64% 79% 48% 47% 41%
Russia 30% 30% 18% 49% 42% 46% 38% 45% 39% 62% 57% 75%
S&M 29% 29% 34% 53% 33% 62% 31% 56% 51% 65% 56% 56%
Turkey 25% 13% 41% 42% 39% 38% 12% 74% 57% 37% 20% 49%
Ukraine 21% 24% 64% 40% 26% 49% 22% 60% 85% 46% 40% 44%
Source: UNSD Comtrade Statistics, 2006
II.1.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage between BSEC Member States
The assessment of a country’s export potential is strongly influenced by the degree of its
revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Countries with similar RCA profiles are less likely to
have high bilateral trade intensities unless intra-industry trade is involved. This is because
both are specialised in similar product segments. RCA measures, if estimated at high levels
of product disaggregation, can highlight non-traditional products that could be successfully
exploited. The RCA index of country i for product j is measured by the product’s share in the
country’s exports in relation to its share in BSEC trade:
RCA
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x
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