Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
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Box 2. Note on the quality of trade data used in this study<br />
<strong>Trade</strong> data in general can never provide a complete <strong>and</strong> accurate picture of traded values <strong>and</strong> quantities.<br />
This is particularly the case for BSEC where a number of countries do not report data or where data is<br />
wrongly reported, omitted or misclassified. <strong>Trade</strong> statistics can also be affected by informal trade, cross<br />
border smuggling, the re-exportation or re-importation of products, etc. However, trade flows <strong>and</strong> the<br />
indicators presented in this chapter provide a useful order of magnitude of actual trade flows <strong>and</strong> represent<br />
a valid point of departure for research. According to quality determinants, one may decide that trade data<br />
are reliable or not.<br />
While transactions are recorded in both the exporting <strong>and</strong> the importing country by the customs offices, it is<br />
then instructive to analyse the discrepancies between the export statistics of a country <strong>and</strong> the import<br />
statistics of its partners (mirror statistics). A good sign of data reliability is a relative match of these trade<br />
<strong>and</strong> mirror statistics. Imports figures are generally slightly higher than the exports figures, as they include<br />
freight <strong>and</strong> insurance costs. A difference of around 10% is generally observed as the norm. Discrepancy<br />
measures are defined as (M-T)/(T+M) where T is reported trade <strong>and</strong> M is for mirror estimate. These are<br />
presented in the tables below. For example, when Georgia reports its imports from BSEC Member States, it<br />
systematically over reports except for its trade with Armenia (under reports by 23% on average) <strong>and</strong> Russia<br />
(approximately accurate reporting based on both declarations).<br />
Table on Data Discrepancy in imports of BSEC countries<br />
REPORTER TOTAL ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MOL ROM RUS TUR<br />
ALBANIA 5.2 n.a. n.a. 15.6 n.a. 2.1 n.a. 1.9 18.4 3.4<br />
ARMENIA 13.1 n.a. n.a. 47.5 -19 10.6 1.4 89.5 26.9 100<br />
AZERBAIJAN -7.1 n.a. n.a. -20 -23.7 -20.2 n.a. 3.5 -3.2 -23.3<br />
BULGARIA 3.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -8.8 n.a. -11.2 -7.4 3.6<br />
GEORGIA -13.5 n.a. 23.2 -8.7 -40.1 -13.9 n.a. -70.8 0.8 -15.6<br />
GREECE 6.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.3 91.3 n.a. 1.8 61.6 -2.1<br />
MOLDOVA -3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.4 n.a. 7.6 -17 1.2 1.3<br />
RUSSIA -19.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.6 n.a. -19.1<br />
TURKEY 7.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 n.a. -10.9 n.a. 0.6 7.9<br />
Note: Bilateral discrepancy defined as 100*(T-M)/(T+M), T reported trade, M mirror estimate for 2003. Varies between -100% <strong>and</strong> +100%;<br />
n.a. refers to data not available; no data reported for Romania, Serbia <strong>and</strong> Montenegro <strong>and</strong> Ukraine<br />
Source : International <strong>Trade</strong> Center, based on COMTRADE Data of the UNSD<br />
Table on Data Discrepancy for exports of BSEC countries<br />
REPORTER TOTAL ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MOL ROM RUS TUR<br />
ALBANIA 3.2 n.a. n.a. 17.7 n.a. -49.9 n.a. -100 46.4 10.5<br />
ARMENIA 5.7 n.a. n.a. 80.5 23.2 -63.7 -2.6 n.a. -6.2 n.a.<br />
AZERBAIJAN -13.5 n.a. n.a. -99.7 -8.7 -29.6 n.a. -7.2 -23.3 6.8<br />
BULGARIA 3.7 15.6 n.a. n.a. -40.1 -27.3 18.4 0.8 21.4 5.1<br />
GEORGIA 40.2 n.a. -19 -23.7 n.a. 91.3 -9.4 37.9 - 53.8<br />
GREECE -3 2.1 n.a. n.a. -8.8 n.a. n.a. -3.8 -41.5 -10.9<br />
MOLDOVA 15.9 n.a. 1.4 6.4 8.1 -3.9 62.4 -2.2 13.6 19.7<br />
RUSSIA 16.1 n.a. n.a. -3.2 -7.4 n.a. 61.6 n.a. 50.3 7.9<br />
TURKEY 4.5 n.a. n.a. -23.3 3.6 -15.6 -2.1 n.a. 3.3 -19.1<br />
Note: Bilateral discrepancy defined as 100*(T-M)/(T+M), T reported trade, M mirror estimate for 2003. Varies between -100% <strong>and</strong> +100%;<br />
n.a. refers to data not available; no data reported for Romania, Serbia <strong>and</strong> Montenegro <strong>and</strong> Ukraine<br />
Source : International <strong>Trade</strong> Center, based on COMTRADE Data of the UNSD<br />
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