Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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% of GDP . The dynamism of the private sector is a major determinant as to the competitiveness of the economy and its long term growth potential. The number of patent applications from residents provides an insight into the dynamism of the private sector within the country to be innovative, while the number of patent applications from non-residents provides an insight into the interest of foreign companies operating within BSEC. Ukraine has an exceptionally high number of patent applications from residents (4,086 patent applications) in comparison with the other countries of the region. Serbia and Montenegro has the highest number of patent applications from non-residents (658 patent applications) (see Table 2). Figure 2 Foreign direct investment flows in BSEC (2004) 45 FDI, net inflows 40 35 30 25 20 FDI, net outflows 15 10 5 0 -5 Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Georgia Greece Moldova Romania Russia Serbia Montenegro Turkey Ukraine Source: World Bank World Development Indicators database, 2007 In terms of the contribution of each economic sector to growth, each country exhibits remarkably different properties. The trends change considerably from one country to the other, but the services sector tends to show robust growth across the region, except for Ukraine where it stagnated in the last five years. Industrial growth in Armenia and Azerbaijan has been significant, at 19 and 13 percent respectively (see Table 2). 16/135
Trade is very significant for most countries in BSEC, in particular Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine, whose trade exceeds one hundred percent of its GDP 4 . The least open economies are Greece and Russia, where trade accounts for only around half of GDP (though this is double the relative size of trade for the USA). Although the economies of the region are open, they are not necessarily self sufficient and with the exception of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, all register deficits in the balance of trade in goods and services. Interestingly Greece, Turkey and Ukraine have positive balances for trade in goods, with transportation and tourism services accounting for the largest surplus for Greece. Table 2. Indicators of performance of BSEC (2005) Investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRE MOL ROM RUS SEM TUR UKR FDI, net inflows (% of GDP) 6 6 41 8 10 1 3 7 2 4 1 3 FDI, net outflows (% of GDP) 0 0 14 -1 0 0 0 0 2 .. 0 0 GFCF (Billion US$) 2.1 1.5 5* 7.5 1.7 52* 0.6 23.6 159.5 4.5 90.0 15.9 GFCF (% of GDP) 25 30 53* 28 27 26* 20 24 21 17 25 19 GFCF (% growth p.a.) 10 25 16* 23 13 5* 2 5 11 8 10 9 Patents Patent applications, non-residents n.a. 2* n.a. 5* 10* 27* n.a. 37* 2* 658** 42** 269* Patent applications, residents n.a. 151** n.a. 263* 248* 487* 297* 937* 23* 381** 465** 4086* Composition of Growth Industry, value added (% growth p.a.) 4* 19 13* 7 15 1* 5 4 4 4 9 2 Manufacturing, value added (% growth p.a.) n.a. 7 11* 10 11 3** 4* 4 n.a. n.a. 6 15* Agriculture, value added (% growth p.a.) 3* 11 5* -9 12 10* 3 4 1 2 6 2 Services, etc., value added (% growth p.a.) 8* 11 9* 7 7 5* 6 4 8 3 7 0 External Sector Trade (% of GDP) 70 67 121* 138 87 50* 135 84 57 78 61 115* Trade in services (% of GDP) 30 15 27 29 21 23 30 10* 8 n.a. 12* 21 Exports of goods & services (% growth p.a.) 19.0 16.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 10.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 30.0 9.0 3.0 Imports of goods & services (% growth p.a.) 22 12 23* 15 5 8* 8 4 16 8 12 14 Merchandise trade (% of GDP) 39 55 68 112 53 33 117 69 48 62 52 86 Net trade in goods (Billion US$) -1.8 -0.6 3.3 -5.4 -1.2 -34.3 -1.2 -6,7* 118.3 n.a. -23,9* -1.1 Net trade in services (Billion US$) -0.2 -0.1 -2.0 0.8 0.1 19.4 0.0 -0,2* -14.7 n.a. 12,7* 1.8 Net trade in goods & services (Billion US$) -2.0 -0.6 1.3 -4.6 -1.1 -14.8 -1.2 -6,9* 103.6 n.a. -11,2* 0.7 Note: *: 2004 statistics; **: 2003 statistics; Growth over a five year period Source: World Bank World Development Indicators database, 2007 4 Trade is defined as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services. 17/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5: . Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 22 and 23: . II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
Page 24 and 25: . As mentioned earlier, the major e
Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 30 and 31: j j . x is the value of total expo
Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
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Page 54 and 55: . Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
Page 56 and 57: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 58 and 59: . Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
Page 60 and 61: . Other commercial services (which
Page 62 and 63: . Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
Page 64 and 65: . In terms of existence of a legal
Page 66 and 67: . III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
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. service sector (retail, business
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. Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
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. Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
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. Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
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. 74/135
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. of trade in services performance,
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. Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
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. World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
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. Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
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. Table A2. Major Import Partners f
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. Table A4. Major Import by Product
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Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. country I and country j’s capit
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. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
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. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
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. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
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. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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