UBI Banca Group

imports (+24.9%) than in exports (+20.3%) – currency reserves had risen in December to 3,181
billion dollars (2,847 billion dollars at the end of 2010). Over one third of the total currency
reserves, which have remained basically stable since June, continues to be invested in United
States treasuries.
After peaking in July (6.5%) inflation fell to 4.1% in December (5.4% on average over the year)
– the result of repeated action taken to tighten monetary policy by the Chinese central bank in
the first seven months of the year – only to climb back to 4.5% in January 2012.
Actual and forecast data: the principal emerging countries
Gross domestic product
Consumer prices
(average annual rate)
Unemployment
(average annual rate)
Reference interest
rates
Percentages 2010 2011 2012 (1) 2010 2011 2012 (1) 2010 2011 2012 (1) Dec 10 Dec 11
China 10.4 9.2 8.1 3.3 5.4 3.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.81 6.56
India 10.3 7.3 6.8 12.0 10.6 8.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.25 8.50
Brazil 7.5 2.7 3.0 5.0 6.6 5.2 6.7 6.7 7.5 10.75 11.00
Russia 4.0 4.1 3.3 6.9 8.9 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.75 8.00
(1) Forecasts Source: Prometeia, IMF and official statistics
Growth also tended to ease off in the other major emerging countries. GDP grew by 6.9% year-on-year in
India in the third quarter, affected by a fall in investment – caused by weak foreign demand and tighter
monetary policies – while exports again performed very strongly. Consumption slowed marginally due to
continuing high levels of inflation (9.1% in November).
Economic activity in Brazil was slowed by the combined effect of several factors: a particularly tight
monetary policy was pursued, foreign demand decelerated and the prices of raw materials, which the
country exports, fell.
The Russian economy on the other hand appeared to grow further (4.8% growth in GDP year-on-year in
the third quarter) – although not as fast as in the pre-crisis years – due to good performance by
consumption and investments, while inflation – 6.1% in December – had decreased compared to the high at
the beginning of 2011 (9.6% in January) partly the result of the relaxation of pressures on food prices.
Economic activity weakened again in Japan in the fourth quarter, after the recovery seen over
the summer. The quarterly fall in GDP of 0.2% (-1.8%, -0.3% and +1.7% respectively in the
three previous periods) reflected a negative contribution made by the balance of trade –
affected by a slowdown in world demand and the appreciation of the yen – and weaker
domestic demand for consumer goods, offset by a sharp increase in non residential
investments. Industrial output contracted in the last quarter by 0.4% compared to the
previous quarter, despite greater than expected performance in December (+3.8% compared to
November), which confirmed the uncertainty of the situation recorded in the Tankan report.
On the labour market the unemployment rate, which had fallen to 4.2% in September, climbed
back to 4.5% in December (4.9% at the end of 2010). On the prices front, the Japanese
economy remains in a condition of basic deflation which has now lasted since 2009 (-0.1% in
December 2011).
Actual and forecast data: industrialised countries
Percentages
Gross domestic product
Consumer prices
(average annual rate)
Unemployment
(average annual rate)
Public Sector Deficit
(% of GDP)
Reference interest
rates
2010 2011 2012 (1) 2010 2011 2012 (1) 2010 2011 2012 (1) 2010 2011 (1) 2012 (1) Dec-10 Dec-11
United States 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.6 3.2 2.1 9.6 8.9 8.4 10.7 8.3 7.6 0-0,25 0-0,25
Japan 4.4 -0.7 1.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 8.4 11.1 9.4 0-0,10 0-0,10
Euro Area 1.9 1.4 -0.3 1.6 2.7 2.2 10.1 10.1 10.7 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.00 1.00
Italy 1.8 0.4 -1.3 1.6 2.9 2.6 8.4 8.2 8.4 4.6 3.9 2.5 - -
Germany 3.7 3.0 0.6 1.2 2.5 2.0 7.1 5.9 6.0 4.3 1.3 0.1 - -
France 1.5 1.7 0.4 1.7 2.3 2.1 9.8 9.8 10.0 7.1 5.7 4.3 - -
Portugal 1.4 -1.6 -3.3 1.4 3.6 2.4 12.0 12.7 13.5 9.8 5.7 5.9 - -
Ireland -0.4 0.9 0.5 -1.6 1.2 1.4 13.7 14.5 14.5 31.3 9.9 8.5 - -
Greece -3.5 -6.8 -4.4 4.7 3.1 2.0 12.5 16.5 21.0 10.6 9.6 7.1 - -
Spain -0.1 0.7 -1.0 2.0 3.1 1.7 20.1 21.7 23.1 9.3 8.0 5.0 - -
United Kingdom 2.1 0.8 0.6 3.3 4.5 2.1 7.9 7.8 8.2 10.3 9.6 7.7 0.50 0.50
(1) Forecasts Source: Prometeia and official statistics
Economic activity slowed progressively in the euro area during 2011 with a fall in GDP in the
fourth quarter of 0.3% in quarterly terms (+0.8%, +0.1% and +0.1% respectively in the
preceding periods), due mainly to a sharp slowdown by Germany and Italy going into
recession. The result reflects a weakening in all components and in net foreign demand in
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