UBI Banca Group

The macroeconomic framework
The recovery at world level progressively weakened during 2011 9 , due to the strong
slowdown that is occurring in industrialised countries, particularly in the euro area and in
Japan, and also to the moderate deceleration in emerging economies, while the United States
benefited from fiscal stimulus measures implemented in recent years. The economic situation
was characterised by high levels of unemployment, while the inflationary pressures that
emerged over the summer weakened as a result of a fall in commodity prices.
After rising in the first quarter, the prices of the main non energy resources fell generally,
pricing in lower expectations of growth. On the other hand, having risen to over 125 dollars
per barrel when the war in Libya broke out, Brent oil then stabilised at between 100 dollars
and 120 dollars – held up by geopolitical tensions in North Africa and the Middle East – only to
rise again above 125 dollars in February 2012, following the worsening of the Iranian nuclear
experiments crisis.
Having recorded almost zero first quarter growth, the United States economy then showed
signs of recovery. The last quarter ended with an annualised increase in output over three
months of 3% (+1.8% in the third quarter and +1.3% in the second), driven by household
consumption and the reconstitution of inventories, while fixed investments weakened. On the
other hand, the balance of trade made a zero contribution to growth, affected, amongst other
things, by the slowdown in
progress in the euro area.
Overall United States GDP
improved by 1.7% during the
year compared to +3% in
2010.
The labour market showed
encouraging signals towards
the end of the year with the
unemployment rate down
from 8.9% in October to 8.5%
in December, after remaining
stable at around 9% in the
months before. A further fall
to 8.3% in January 2012
brought this statistic to the
same levels as in February
2009. While remaining high
historically (8.9%), the
average for 2011 appears to
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Brent oil prices (2009-2011) Graph No. 3
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
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G F M A M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N D
2009 2010 2011
have decreased compared to the previous year (9.6%).
After increasing progressively until it peaked in September (3.9%), inflation rapidly fell in the
months that followed to end the year at 3% (1.5% at the end of 2010). Core inflation (net of
food and energy products) seems on the other hand, to have stabilised at 2.2% in November
and December (0.8% in December 2010), the highest level since the autumn of 2008.
The balance of trade deficit grew over twelve months to 558 billion dollars (+11.6%), due
mainly to trade with OPEC countries, China and the euro area.
Having now established itself as the second largest economic power, China maintained strong
growth, although this slowed progressively with GDP increasing by 9.2% (10.4% in 2010). All
components of domestic demand made significant contributions to growth. Fixed investments
were up by 23.9% with particularly high peaks in the manufacturing sector (+44.6% for
electrical machinery and equipment), retail sales of consumer goods were up 17.1% and
industrial production was up 13.9%, driven again by heavy industry with increases of over
15% in some manufacturing sectors. Despite a further reduction in the balance of trade
surplus to 155.1 billion dollars (-15.3% compared to 2010) – the result of stronger growth in
9 According to the most recent IMF updates (World Economic Outlook update, January 2012), world GDP grew by 3.8% in the year
that has just ended (5.2% in 2010).
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