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FALLERS
Danny Briere
He had his lowest point total since 2001, other than his career low
29 game season in 2009. The success of a few younger guys could
start to nipp at Briere’s ice time, but don’t think he will be
demoted to anything less than the second line. The 35 year old
might not fall that many points from last year, but when a guy has
averaged .915 points per game since the lockout, you tend to
expect a bit more than 49 points. Draft him like a 45-50 point guy
and you shouldn’t be disappointed. If your league counts playoffs
then disregard this paragraph as Briere has shown time and time
again he is a beast in the post season.
Matt Read
Read was an undrafted player that had a really impressive rookie season. He led all rookies in goals and
was top four in points. Before the season started, a lot of poolies didn’t even know who he was. While
he will probably be penciled in on the third line with guys like Couturier and Fedotenko, the emergence
of some of the young guys will hurt his chances of moving up. He scored 18 points in 28 games when
Schenn wasn’t in the lineup and then slowed to 29 points in his other 51 games. This could easily be
coincidence, but it seems to me that Schenn will be moving ahead faster than Read. Read was a 25 year
old rookie as he was older when he took the college route to the NHL, so he really was a man competing
against boys in the rookie race. He should have been much more NHL ready than a young kid, but that
doesn’t mean he has the upside as some of the 18 and 19 year olds he was competing with. He had a
15.5 shooting percentage which was the highest of any rookie in the top 10. That also seems a bit high
to me. I’d guess a real decline in points this year as other prospects steel more of his opportunities.
Bottom line, I would put him at 35 to 40 points.
Scott Hartnell
Hartnell had a career season with 37 goals and 30 assists for 67
points which was second on his team. In 2008-09 he had 30 and
30 for 60 points, so he is capable of putting up good numbers,
but his 15.9 shooting percentage may not be sustainable. His
career average is 11.3. A lot of that might have to do with
playing alongside Giroux and an underrated passer in Jaromir
Jagr. He again will ride shotgun with Giroux, but I doubt he
replicate that 15 percent shooting percentage. Hartnell may
not drop too many points but his goals total will go down. Don’t
expect 67 points again, I’d shoot for 55-60 points where he has
averaged in his last four campaigns.
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