Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles
Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles
2. Know the league The state of the rest of the league, the competition, will be a major determining factor in choosing the right time to transition to being a contender. How strong, or weak, the competition is will determine how quickly it is possible to become a contender and the price to become a contender. To this end it is necessary to be knowledgeable of the entire league, not just the top end teams. The following league factors are important: A. How good are the top teams? - If there’s a large gap between the transitioning team and the top teams in the league it may not be reasonable to assume that becoming an immediate contender is an option. In that case it may not be the best time to make a major jump, a smaller interim step up may be appropriate. The transition does not have to happen in one fell swoop. TIMING! B. How many teams are rebuilding? - The more rebuilding teams there are in the league the easier it is to trade prospects for established players. Simple supply and demand. - The more rebuilding teams there are the less legitimate competition there will be when becoming a contender. C. How many other teams are transitioning? - If there are a lot of teams also trying to make the transition it may be harder to successfully transition and become a contender. The state of the other transitioning teams and whether they are ahead or behind in their rebuild should inform when to make a move. - A large number of transitioning teams may also mean that it makes more sense to wait a year to transition. Teams that have not accurately assessed their situation may be more willing to pay a very high cost to make the jump. If those teams end up like the NHL Thrashers the assets they move will only increase in value. In this sense consider the value proposition of taking advantage of teams over-anxious to get out of the rebuild. TIMING! 3. Know the Cost This summer in the NHL we saw the Minnesota Wild make two major transitional moves in signing Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. While the Wild may not be an immediate contender before prospects like Granlund, Coyle, Phillips and Brodin become legitimate NHLers these acquisitions will make becoming a contender easier. Acquiring Parise and Suter cost the Wild nothing, except cap space, something that is often not an option in fantasy hockey. Thus it is all the more important to ensure that a plan is in place, an accurate idea exists of the pieces needed and the assets that can be moved to add those pieces. 27
To that end an important principle of negotiating is to know your fallback position, also known as the principle of the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA). This principle translates to the idea of transitioning to contending in the sense that it is important to understand that if the price of becoming a contender is too high another year of rebuilding and developing must be considered an option. It may also be possible to take small steps and bring the team closer without actually making the major jump. Remember the transition does not have to happen all in one season/off-season. The smaller steps will only make it easier to make the jump the following year. The price needed to become a contender will come from the answers to the questions asked about the state of the team and the league. Knowing the team and the league will help to accurately assess what the team/organization needs and what everyone else needs. It will dictate the supply and demand for players that will help in the transition and the players that can be moved to acquire more immediate assets. Furthermore, knowing the transitioning team will help make sure the pieces acquired will help now and make sense long-term. In closing, the transition from rebuilding to contending does not have to happen in one offseason or one season. Constantly re-assessing the state of any rebuilding team/organization will inform the decision of when to transition. A rebuilding team that is a ways from the transition stage may be catapulted forward because of a trade, an NHL development or league developments. Keeping an open mind will allow the smart fantasy hockey manager to take advantage of any number of these factors to transition at the right time. 4. My Personal Example For me, last year was supposed to be another year in the bottom 10 of a 30 team salary cap dynasty league. During the year I focused on consolidating some of my prospect depth and some veteran talent for more elite NHL-ready prospects. In doing so I acquired Mikael Granlund and Brayden Schenn. During the year the emergence of Mike Smith vaulted me into the middle of the league, he was a gamble that paid off much more than I had dared to hope. When I realized the price I desired for Smith was not forthcoming I realized I had a decision on my hands. Two teams deciding to go into rebuilding mode helped make my decision for me. I was able to acquire Dustin Byfuglien late last season and then this off-season I upgraded my forwards to Martin Erat, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron and Erik Cole from David Jones, Devin Setoguchi, Matt Cullen and Paul Gaustad as I needed to build on my core of Tavares, Seguin, Jack Johnson, Hedman, Gardiner and Mike Smith. These acquisitions also mean that I do not need Tarasenko, B Schenn, Mikeal Granlund, Leblanc, Tyson Barrie and Brendan Smith to make major contributions. While this cost some of my prospect depth, along with some added depth, I now believe myself to be on the verge of the top 10 in my league. I have also made sure that I still have a number of top prospects on the way, such as Markstrom, Dumba and Joe Colborne. ~ Doran Libin 28
- Page 1 and 2: GMG’sMARKETBUZZ September2012 Vol
- Page 3 and 4: GMG’s Introduction - September 20
- Page 5 and 6: 11. David Backes, C/RW - STL B+ M H
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- Page 77 and 78: y Keith Veronese In this roundup of
2. Know the league<br />
The state of the rest of the league, the competition, will be a major determining factor in choosing the<br />
right time to transition to being a contender. How strong, or weak, the competition is will determine<br />
how quickly it is possible to become a contender <strong>and</strong> the price to become a contender. To this end it is<br />
necessary to be knowledgeable of the entire league, not just the top end teams. The following league<br />
factors are important:<br />
A. How good are the top teams?<br />
- If there’s a large gap between the transitioning team <strong>and</strong> the top teams in the league it<br />
may not be reasonable to assume that becoming an immediate contender is an option.<br />
In that case it may not be the best time to make a major jump, a smaller interim step up<br />
may be appropriate. The transition does not have to happen in one fell swoop. TIMING!<br />
B. How many teams are rebuilding?<br />
- The more rebuilding teams there are in the league the easier it is to trade prospects for<br />
established players. Simple supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>.<br />
- The more rebuilding teams there are the less legitimate competition there will be when<br />
becoming a contender.<br />
C. How many other teams are transitioning?<br />
- If there are a lot of teams also trying to make the transition it may be harder to<br />
successfully transition <strong>and</strong> become a contender. The state of the other transitioning<br />
teams <strong>and</strong> whether they are ahead or behind in their rebuild should inform when to<br />
make a move.<br />
- A large number of transitioning teams may also mean that it makes more sense to wait<br />
a year to transition. Teams that have not accurately assessed their situation may be<br />
more willing to pay a very high cost to make the jump. If those teams end up like the<br />
NHL Thrashers the assets they move will only increase in value. In this sense consider<br />
the value proposition of taking advantage of teams over-anxious to get out of the<br />
rebuild. TIMING!<br />
3. Know the Cost<br />
This summer in the NHL we saw the Minnesota Wild make two major transitional moves in<br />
signing Zach Parise <strong>and</strong> Ryan Suter. While the Wild may not be an immediate contender before<br />
prospects like Granlund, Coyle, Phillips <strong>and</strong> Brodin become legitimate NHLers these acquisitions will<br />
make becoming a contender easier. Acquiring Parise <strong>and</strong> Suter cost the Wild nothing, except cap space,<br />
something that is often not an option in fantasy hockey. Thus it is all the more important to ensure that<br />
a plan is in place, an accurate idea exists of the pieces needed <strong>and</strong> the assets that can be moved to add<br />
those pieces.<br />
27
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