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3 Factors
1. Know the team
Knowing the team is the single most important factor when deciding whether to move from rebuilding
to contending. This evaluation requires asking a number of questions ranging from how true a reflection
of the team’s current potential last season of the team’s true ability to the ability to sustain a dynasty. It
is important to ask questions about both the present and the future because unless the plan is to
become the Florida Marlins of your league, occasional one shot wonders, the goal of a rebuild should be
to stay on top of the league for a prolonged period of time. Thus while the questions about the team
now will determine whether the base to compete immediately exists, the questions of the future will
determine whether the organization can pay the price to compete now and still be competitive down
the road. Being objective and realistic during this analysis will be the toughest because it is always tough
not to believe that we have built the best team. This process involves answering the following questions:
A. Was last season an anomaly?
- An abnormally large number of players having all had career years on the same team
means it is likely they will not all reach those levels again the next season. Be aware that
younger players don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion (see Matt Duchene last
year). Some metrics can help ascertain the extent to which those career highs were
anomalies or a sign of future highs to come.
- Did one player have an abnormally good year? Be sure to get a good grasp of how likely
it is that said player will return to form. Make sure the factors that helped that player
succeed are still in play. In Mike Smith’s case the fact that Tippett and Burke remain in
Phoenix and the return of Zbynek Michalek make another strong year more likely (note:
I may be biased as I have Mike Smith)
- Is that Ray Sheppard after the 1993/94 season or Martin St Louis after 2003/04?
Catching the signs of a sell-high candidate can help avoid the crash of a regression to the
norm.
B. What development or regression is expected?
- Which prospects can be counted on to make the jump which ones are a risk. This can be
as much about the depth of the prospect’s NHL team in question as it is about the
prospect’s skill level and potential (see Brendan Smith in Detroit last year).
- It is less likely that a rebuilding team will be leaning heavily on older players nearing the
end of their careers but it may have been a couple of older players who helped push the
team toward contention but may not be around when actually making the jump.
C. How is the team set up for the long term?
- When coming off a rebuilding phase it is likely the core of the team is filled with younger
players. This should not however consist of just a couple young studs as successful
contenders have depth. The middle can be reached based on a couple young studs but
not the top.
- In leagues with prospect rosters, make sure that all the prospect depth is not already
tied up in the team. Will paying the cost to make the jump to contending completely
wipe out the prospect roster? Successful NHL dynasties like Detroit are in that situation
because they have a pipeline of talent to replenish the NHL roster. Make sure that the
potential for this exists in the organization in question as well.
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