Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles
Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles
Roto Exclusive : Guest Contributions and Featured Articles
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GMG’sMARKETBUZZ<br />
September2012<br />
Volume3/Edition1
Table of Contents – September 2012 Edition<br />
GMG’s Introduction Gates Imbeau 2<br />
Top 100 <strong>Roto</strong> Keepers – Extended Categories Gates Imbeau 3<br />
Market Buzz : Combo Ranks & Player Profiles Gates Imbeau 8<br />
<strong>Featured</strong> guest contributions :<br />
How to win a Hits & Blocked Shots League Pengwin7 12<br />
Lockout Ready : Players Edition Tim Lucarelli 20<br />
The Benefits to a Lockout Austin Wallace 22<br />
Making the Transition : Rebuilding to Contending Doran Libin 25<br />
Vets -r-us Br<strong>and</strong>on Cheung 29<br />
2012-13 Odds <strong>and</strong> Ends Anthony Lancione 31<br />
Quick Hits – 30 Teams Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry 35<br />
30 team breakdown by the Black Aces’ team coverage crew <strong>and</strong> DobberHockey forums :<br />
Anaheim Ducks Eric Daoust 40<br />
Boston Bruins Tim Graveline 41<br />
Buffalo Sabres “Bomm Bastic” Will 42<br />
Calgary Flames Chad Pottruff 45<br />
Carolina Hurricanes Derek Reese 47<br />
Chicago Blackhawks Steve Laidlaw 49<br />
Colorado Avalanche Marty Kwiaton 51<br />
Columbus Blue Jackets Trevor Finlay 53<br />
Dallas Stars NoWayOut 54<br />
Detroit Redwings Eric Daoust 56<br />
Edmonton Oilers Axeman33 57<br />
Florida Panthers Steve Laidlaw 60<br />
Los Angeles Kings uofmehockey 62<br />
Minnesota Wild Ross Palmer 63<br />
Montreal Canadiens Eric Daoust 65<br />
Nashville Predators uofmehockey 66<br />
New Jersey Devils Gainerama 67<br />
New York Isl<strong>and</strong>ers Gainerama 69<br />
New York Rangers Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry 71<br />
Ottawa Senators Evan Hotham 72<br />
Philadelphia Flyers Kevin Schulmeister 74<br />
Phoenix Coyotes Keith Veronese 76<br />
Pittsburgh Penguins Derek Reese 78<br />
San Jose Sharks Tim Graveline 80<br />
St. Louis Blues Keith Veronese 81<br />
Tampa Bay Lightning “sixh<strong>and</strong>s” David 83<br />
Toronto Maple Leafs Tyler Kerdman 85<br />
Vancouver Canucks Ryan Goddard 87<br />
Washington Capitals Eric Daoust 91<br />
Winnipeg Jets Anthony Capocci 92<br />
Final Words…<br />
Closing Remarks – A Game within the Game Gates Imbeau 95<br />
Who Are the Black Aces? Gates Imbeau 96
GMG’s Introduction – September 2012 Edition<br />
The highly anticipated PDF has finally arrived – welcome to Volume 3.0! What better way to kick it off by<br />
including work from 28 well respected members of the DobberHockey community for a combined tally<br />
of 35-plus articles. This is by far the biggest collaboration to be featured in the <strong>Roto</strong> PDF <strong>Exclusive</strong>.<br />
Bottom line, if there is to be a lockout, might as well go out in style.<br />
As noted in the updated roto legend <strong>and</strong> Top 100 disclaimer, the goal of this list is to push poolies to<br />
realize the current Trade Value (TV) <strong>and</strong> Potential <strong>Roto</strong> Value (PRV) of the Top <strong>Roto</strong> Keepers in leagues<br />
that feature your st<strong>and</strong>ard six categories (goals, assists, power play points, plus/minus, shots on goal,<br />
penalty minutes) as well as the extended categories of hits <strong>and</strong> blocked shots. To accomplish that goal,<br />
the following changes have been made to the Top 100:<br />
Removed: colored tiers under roto focus, current roto score <strong>and</strong> potential roto score tabs (CRS / PRS).<br />
Added: numbered system under roto focus, trade value <strong>and</strong> potential roto value grading tabs (TV / PRV).<br />
Updated: legend <strong>and</strong> disclaimer / additional information. Second month column & the Black Aces’ page.<br />
Also added are two additional Top 25 combo ranks (this month: G/SOG <strong>and</strong> Hits/Blocked Shots) along<br />
with player breakdowns for highlighted performers <strong>and</strong> do not forget to check out the closing remarks.<br />
Big congratulations to the newest batch of graduates from the Black Aces program. Joining the<br />
DobberHockey crew for the 2012-13 season are Eric Daoust (Capped), Mac Vincent (Frozen Forensics)<br />
<strong>and</strong> Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry (IR report). All the while, Michael Amato slides into his new Wild West role, Russ<br />
Miller returns to his Eastern Edge roots, <strong>and</strong> Brad Wilson begins his journey as the new Dobber Nation<br />
podcast host. With that news, Ryan Ma will be returning to his bi-weekly Maaaasquito Bites feature <strong>and</strong><br />
we wish the best to Tim Lucarelli, our first forum graduate, in his future hockey writing endeavours.<br />
Are you interested in joining the NHL Team Coverage crew? Phoenix, Tampa Bay <strong>and</strong> Los Angeles are<br />
currently available. Positions are also open for the DobberHockey Frozen Newsfeed as well as Studs &<br />
Duds for the 2012-13 season. Check out other Dobber Sports job opportunities here. We are always<br />
looking for new content. Do not hesitate to send me an email at the contact information below.<br />
If you would like a high quality printable version of this document, do not hesitate to ask.<br />
Gates Imbeau<br />
Assistant Manager - DobberSports.com<br />
Writer - Fantrax.com<br />
Email: gates@dobbersports.com<br />
Twitter: @gm_gates<br />
2
GMG’s Top 100 <strong>Roto</strong> Keepers<br />
<strong>Roto</strong> Legend<br />
Categories – G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits & Blkd shots<br />
<strong>Roto</strong> Focus: (Top three strongest categories per player)<br />
No symbol allocation = Average // Hash tag (#) = Monster<br />
4 – Consistently puts up massive numbers in this stat.<br />
3 – Consistently puts up great numbers in this stat.<br />
2 – Consistently put up above average numbers in this stat.<br />
MOV – Movement // LM & 2M – Previous monthly rank.<br />
TV & PRV: (current worth vs. should & could be worth)<br />
Trade Value – Grade influenced by perceived value.<br />
Potential <strong>Roto</strong> Value – Two season peak performance.<br />
M = Monster trade value / Monster roto potential. (Top 10)<br />
A = Very High trade value / Massive roto potential. (Top 25)<br />
B = High trade value / Great roto potential. (Top 50)<br />
C = Decent trade value / Good roto potential. (Top 75)<br />
(Top) = Potential finish in the stated rank in a two season span.<br />
(R) = Youth/Rebuild – room for growth<br />
Disclaimer / Additional Information<br />
This is not a player to player draft guide, simply because<br />
the flow of draft, positions required <strong>and</strong> many other needs<br />
come into play. The goal of this list is to push poolies to<br />
realize the proper trade value <strong>and</strong> potential value of the<br />
Top <strong>Roto</strong> Keepers, using the <strong>Roto</strong> Rank as the foundation.<br />
The Trade Value (TV) grade reflects what the player’s<br />
perceived worth could be currently at the trade table.<br />
This can help determine overrated vs. underrated players.<br />
The Potential <strong>Roto</strong> Value (PRV) highlights a two year peak<br />
performance. The higher the player is ranked on the roto<br />
list, the more likely they are to reach their PRV. If used<br />
correctly, this could enhance your return on investment.<br />
** If you are looking for a calculated <strong>and</strong> true numbers<br />
game, Frozen Pool <strong>and</strong> Fantasy Hockey Geek (FHP) of the<br />
Dobber Sports Network are two very valuable resources.<br />
Salary <strong>and</strong> positional requirements do not affect rankings.<br />
<strong>Roto</strong><br />
Rank<br />
Skaters<br />
Name / Position / Team<br />
TV PRV <strong>Roto</strong> Focus<br />
(Strongest Categories)<br />
MOV LM 2M<br />
1. Alex Ovechkin, LW – WSH M M SOG : # G : 3 Hits : 3 Even 1 1<br />
2. Sidney Crosby, C – PIT M M G : 3 A : 3 PPP : 3 Even 2 2<br />
3. Evgeny Malkin, C – PIT M M A : 3 G : 3 SOG : 3 Even 3 3<br />
4. Steven Stamkos, C – TBL M M G : # PPP : 3 SOG : 3 Even 4 4<br />
5. Zdeno Chara, D – BOS B+ M +/- : # Hits : 2 A : 2 Up 10 5<br />
6. Corey Perry, RW – ANA A+ M G : 3 PIM : 3 SOG : 2.5 Up 9 9<br />
7. Claude Giroux, C/RW – PHI A+ M A : 3 PPP : 3 G : 2 Dn 5 5<br />
8. Nicklas Backstrom, C – WSH A+ M A : 3 PPP : 3 +/- : 2.5 Even 8 8<br />
9. Scott Hartnell, LW – PHI A- M PIM : 3 Hits : 2.5 G : 2 Up 12 13<br />
10. Dustin Brown, RW – LAK B+ M Hits : # +/- : 2.5 SOG : 2 Up 17 20<br />
3
11. David Backes, C/RW - STL B+ M Hits : 3 PIM : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 Up 16 12<br />
12. Shea Weber, D – NSH A+ M Hits : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 G : 2 Up 13 12<br />
13. (R) Gabriel L<strong>and</strong>eskog, LW – COL A M Hits : 3 SOG : 2.5 G : 2 Up 24 33<br />
14. Zach Parise, LW – MIN A+ A+ SOG : 3 G : 2.5 A : 2 Dn 6 6<br />
15. Daniel Sedin, LW – VAN A A+ G : 2.5 PPP : 3 +/- : 3 Dn 7 7<br />
16. Henrik Sedin, C – VAN A A+ A : # PPP : 3 +/- : 3 Dn 11 11<br />
17. Kris Letang, D – PIT A- A+ A : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Up 23 40<br />
18. James Neal, LW – PIT B+ A+ G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Dn 13 16<br />
19. Dion Phaneuf, D – TOR B+ A+ Hits : 3 PIM : 2.5 BS : 2 Up 31 35<br />
20. Patrick Sharp, C/RW – CHI B+ A+ SOG : 3 G : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 Up 22 15<br />
21. Milan Lucic, LW – BOS A- A+ PIM : 3 Hits : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 Dn 20 31<br />
22. Anze Kopitar, C – LAK A- A+ A : 3 PPP : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 Up 29 39<br />
23. Ryan Callahan, C/LW – NYR B+ A+ Hits : # SOG : 2 G : 2 Dn 19 22<br />
24. Ryan Kesler, C – VAN - IR B M G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Up 40 25<br />
25. Jamie Benn, LW – DAL A- A A : 2.5 G : 2 SOG : 2 Up 26 17<br />
26. P.K. Subban, D – MTL A- A PIM : 3 SOG : 2 BS : 2 Up 34 27<br />
27. Alex Pietrangelo, D – STL A- A A : 2.5 PPP : 2 BS : 2 Up 32 44<br />
28. Dustin Byfuglien, D – WPG B+ A SOG : 3 PIM : 2 G : 2 Dn 20 32<br />
29. Erik Karlsson, D – OTT A+ A A : 3 PPP : 3 G : 2 Dn 21 29<br />
30. Steve Ott, RW – BUF B- A PIM : # Hits : # A : 1.5 Dn 25 42<br />
31. Ryan Getzlaf, C – ANA A- A A : 3 PPP : 2.5 Hits : 2 Dn 15 24<br />
32. Jonathan Toews, C – CHI A- A +/- : 3 A : 2 G : 2 Up 37 29<br />
33. Eric Staal, C – CAR A- A- SOG : 3 G : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Dn 27 19<br />
34. John Tavares, C – NYI A A- G PPP SOG Dn 28 37<br />
35. Drew Doughty, D – LAK A- A- A : 2 Hits : 2 PPP : 2 Up 47 46<br />
4
36. Alex<strong>and</strong>er Edler, D – VAN B A- A : 2.5 BS : 2 +/- : 2 Up 49 48<br />
37. Jeff Carter, C/RW – LAK B A- SOG : 3 G : 2.5 PPP : 2 Up 35 23<br />
38. Alex Burrows, LW/RW – VAN B A- +/- : 3.5 G : 2 PIM : 2 Up 41 34<br />
39. Ev<strong>and</strong>er Kane, LW – WPG A- A- SOG : 2.5 Hits : 2 G : 2 Dn 36 28<br />
40. Pavel Datsyuk, C/LW – DET A- B+ A : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Dn 30 18<br />
41. Phil Kessel, RW – TOR A- B+ SOG : 3 G : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Up 50 56<br />
42. (R) Logan Couture, C – SJS B+ B+ SOG : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 G : 2.5 Up 57 67<br />
43. Dany Heatley, RW – MIN B- B+ PPP : 2.5 G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 Up 44 43<br />
44. Mike Richards, C – LAK B+ B+ A : 2 PPP : 2 PIM : 2 Dn 42 36<br />
45. Bobby Ryan, LW – ANA B+ B+ G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 A : 2 Dn 33 26<br />
46. Ryane Clowe, LW – SJS B- A- PIM : 2.5 Hits : 2 A : 2 Up 59 62<br />
47. Dan Girardi, D – NYR C+ A- BS : # Hits : 3 +/- : 2 Up 86 82<br />
48. Dan Boyle, D – SJS B A- A : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 BS : 2 Up 79 74<br />
49. Joe Thornton, C – SJS B+ B+ A : 3 PPP : 3 +/- : 2.5 Up 75 83<br />
50. (R) Marcus Foligno, LW – BUF C+ B+ Hits : 2.5 PIM : 2 A : 2 Up 91 New<br />
51. Henrik Zetterberg, C/LW – DET A- B+ SOG : 3 A : 2.5 G : 2 Dn 38 30<br />
52. Joe Pavelski, C – SJS B+ B+ SOG : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 A : 2 Dn 45 49<br />
53. Ryan Suter, D – MIN B+ B+ +/- : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 A : 2 Up 67 65<br />
54. Rick Nash, RW – CBJ B+ B+ SOG : 3 G : 2.5 A : 2 Up 56 55<br />
55. Max Pacioretty, LW – MTL B B+ SOG : 2.5 G : 2 A : 2 Up 60 80<br />
56. Mike Green, D – WSH B B+ PPP : 2 G : 2 +/- : 2 Up 62 57<br />
57. Ilya Kovalchuk, LW/RW – NJD A- B SOG : 3 G : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 Dn 39 41<br />
58. Alex Semin, LW – CAR B- B G : 2 +/- : 2 A : 2 Even 58 58<br />
59. Marian Gaborik, RW – NYR - IR B- B G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 A : 2 Up 71 69<br />
60. Marian Hossa, RW – CHI B- B G : 2 A : 2 SOG : 2 Dn 51 50<br />
5
61. Brad Richards, C – NYR B- B A : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 Up 63 84<br />
62. Keith Y<strong>and</strong>le, D – PHX B B A : 2 PPP : 2 SOG : 2 Dn 48 47<br />
63. (R) Kevin Shattenkirk, D – STL B B A : 2 PPP : 2.5 BS : 2 Up 78 73<br />
64. (R) Nail Yakupov, RW – EDM A B Hits : 2 SOG : 2 G : 2 Up 89 88<br />
65. Brent Seabrook, D – CHI C B- Hits : 3 BS : 2.5 +/- : 2 New<br />
66. Michael Del Zotto, D – NYR C B- Hits : 2 BS : 2 A : 2 Up 99 97<br />
67. Dennis Seidenberg, D – BOS C- B- BS : 3 Hits : 2 +/- : 2 New<br />
68. Jarome Iginla, RW – CGY B B- G : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 Dn 54 53<br />
69. Patrick Marleau, LW – SJS B- B- SOG : 2.5 G : 2 A : 2 Up 61 59<br />
70. Johan Franzen, RW – DET C+ B- +/- : 2.5 G : 2 SOG : 2 Up 76 71<br />
71. Jason Spezza, C – OTT B+ B- A : 2.5 G : 2 PPP : 2 Dn 55 54<br />
72. Mikko Koivu, C – MIN B B- A : 2.5 PPP : 2 +/- : 2 Dn 70 68<br />
73. Kevin Bieksa, D – VAN C B- +/- : 3 PIM : 2 Hits : 1.75 Up 80 75<br />
74. Patrice Bergeron, C – BOS C+ B- +/- : 3 A : 2 SOG : 2 Up 77 72<br />
75. (R) Taylor Hall, LW – EDM A B- G : 2.5 A : 2 PPP : 2.5 Dn 43 38<br />
76. Jeff Skinner, C/RW – CAR B+ B- G : 2 A : 2 SOG : 2 Dn 64 60<br />
77. Patrick Kane, C/RW - CHI A- B- A : 2.5 SOG : 2 G : 2 Dn 46 45<br />
78. Duncan Keith, D – CHI B B- A : 2 PPP : 2 BS : 2 Dn 68 66<br />
79. Tyler Seguin, C – BOS A B- +/- : 3 A : 2 G : 2 Dn 52 51<br />
80. (R) Ryan N-H., C – EDM A B- A : 2.5 PPP : 2.5 G : 2 Dn 69 64<br />
81. Joffrey Lupul, LW/RW - TOR B- B- PPP : 2.5 A : 2 SOG : 2 Dn 72 70<br />
82. Br<strong>and</strong>on Dubinsky, C – NYR B- B- Hits : 2 PIM : 2 A : 2 Up 85 81<br />
83. Martin St. Louis, RW – TBL C+ B- A : 3 PPP : 2.5 G : 2 Up 97 95<br />
84. Jordan Staal, C – CAR B C+ A : 2 +/- : 2 G : 2 Dn 73 86<br />
85. Daniel Briere, C/RW – PHI C C+ A : 2 SOG : 2 PIM : 2 Up 96 94<br />
6
86. Blake Wheeler, RW – WPG B- C+ A : 2.5 SOG : 2 Hits : 1.5 Up 87 99<br />
87. Mike Ribeiro, C – WSH C C+ A : 2.5 PPP : 2 SOG : 1.5 Up 90 89<br />
88. Chris Kunitz, LW – PIT C C+ Hits : 2 +/- : 2 A : 1.75 Up 74 87<br />
89. Brad March<strong>and</strong>, C/LW – BOS B- C+ +/- : 3 PIM : 2.5 G : 1.5 Up 81 76<br />
90. Mark Giordano, D – CGY C- C BS : 2.5 PIM : 2 A : 2 New<br />
91. Niklas Kronwall, D – DET B C BS : 3 A : 2 PPP : 2 New<br />
92. David Clarkson, RW – NJD C C PIM : 3 Hits : 2 G : 2 Dn 65 63<br />
93. Brent Burns, D – SJS B C A : 2 BS : 2 SOG : 2 New<br />
94. Ryan McDonagh, D – NYR C- C BS : 3 +/- : 3 Hits : 2 New<br />
95. T.J. Oshie, C/RW – STL B C- +/- : 2.5 A : 2 Hits : 1.75 Dn 82 77<br />
96. Travis Hamonic, D – NYI C- C- BS : 2.5 Hits : 2 PIM : 2 New<br />
97. Wayne Simmonds, RW – PHI C- C- PIM : 2.5 Hits : 2 G : 1.5 Dn 93 91<br />
98. Tomas Plekanec, C – MTL C C- A : 2 SOG : 2 PPP : 2 Dn 92 90<br />
99. Thomas Vanek, LW – BUF B C- G : 2 SOG : 2 PPP : 2 Dn 83 78<br />
100. Loui Eriksson, RW - DAL B C- A : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 SOG : 2 New<br />
A GMG MARKET BUZZ PRODUCTION – 2012<br />
Gates Imbeau serves as the assistant manager of the Dobber Sports<br />
Network (dobbersports.com). On the 15 th of every month, he releases the Top<br />
100 <strong>Roto</strong> Players PDF <strong>and</strong> he runs the Black Aces, otherwise known as the<br />
DobberHockey farm team. Gates also pens a weekly Studs <strong>and</strong> Duds report at<br />
Fantrax.com <strong>and</strong> appears as a guest on The York Report via nextsportstar.com.<br />
Born <strong>and</strong> raised in Sudbury, ON, now resides in Hamilton, ON. Gates holds a B.A<br />
in Communications specialized in Advertising <strong>and</strong> can be found on twitter<br />
(@GM_Gates) or in his “Office” via the Dobber Sports forums. He can also be<br />
reached by email at gates@dobbersports.com.<br />
7
Combo Ranks : G / SOG<br />
Combo Ranks : Hits / Blocked Shots<br />
Rk Player G SOG RK Player Hits Blk S<br />
1 Steven Stamkos 55 285 1 Daniel Girardi 205 210<br />
2 Alex<strong>and</strong>er Ovechkin 50 330 2 Luke Schenn 260 145<br />
3 Evgeni Malkin 50 300 3 Matthew Martin (F) 345 40<br />
4 Phil Kessel 40 300 4 Josh Gorges 135 245<br />
5 Corey Perry 40 285 5 Brooks Orpik 235 135<br />
6 Rick Nash 35 300 6 Greg Zanon 165 200<br />
7 Zach Parise 35 290 7 Brent Seabrook 205 155<br />
8 Eric Staal 35 280 8 Matt Greene 240 115<br />
9 Ilya Kovalchuk 35 280 9 Mark Fistric 225 130<br />
10 Patrick Sharp 35 280 10 Ryan Callahan (F) 265 80<br />
11 James Neal 35 270 11 Dion Phaneuf 220 120<br />
12 Jarome Iginla 35 270 12 Ladislav Smid 175 165<br />
13 Sidney Crosby 40 225 13 Travis Hamonic 175 160<br />
14 Daniel Sedin 35 245 14 Alexei Emelin 240 95<br />
15 Bobby Ryan 35 240 15 Dustin Brown (F) 295 35<br />
16 Jeff Carter 30 280 16 Dennis Seidenberg 160 170<br />
17 Matt Moulson 35 230 17 Francois Beauchemin 145 B5<br />
18 Max Pacioretty 30 270 18 Cal Clutterbuck (F) 295 32<br />
19 John Tavares 30 265 19 Eric Brewer 165 160<br />
20 Ev<strong>and</strong>er Kane 30 260 20 Brian Boyle (F) 235 85<br />
21 Patrick Marleau 30 260 21 Mark Stuart 170 150<br />
22 Logan Couture 30 250 22 Shea Weber 195 125<br />
23 Gabriel L<strong>and</strong>eskog 30 265 23 Ryan O'Byrne B0 140<br />
24 Patric Hornqvist 30 245 24 Jared Cowen 215 100<br />
25 Henrik Zetterberg 25 280 25 Stephane Robidas 195 120<br />
2012-13 projections based on blended results from FantasyHockeyGeek, DobberHockey <strong>and</strong> GMG’s Market Buzz.<br />
8
Player Profiles<br />
Moving up : Zdeno Chara, Dion Phaneuf <strong>and</strong> Gabriel L<strong>and</strong>eskog<br />
Moving down (& out) : Jordan Eberle, Matt Duchene, Shane Doan<br />
Zdeno Chara, D – BOS<br />
Seems strange to profile Chara as if he needs it, but this is simply a<br />
reminder to keep things in check. Sexy names like Karlsson, Subban,<br />
Pietrangelo <strong>and</strong> Weber may sway draft selections away from Chara.<br />
Let them. Know that Chara remains the blue line king when it comes<br />
to rotisserie leagues. In addition to his back-to-back plus-33 markers,<br />
“Z” will reach into all categories <strong>and</strong> put up respectable production.<br />
If you want to win, Chara is a major asset to own.<br />
Last month – 10 th This month – 6 th Z-best D, period.<br />
Dion Phaneuf, D – TOR<br />
List your top five roto defensemen. Does it include Dion Phaneuf?<br />
It should. Fact is, any player that puts up 200 hits, 200 SOG, 120<br />
blocked shots <strong>and</strong> 90 PIMs, deserves to be recognized. Phaneuf<br />
easily fits that bill <strong>and</strong> his point production is an added bonus. Draft<br />
appropriately, <strong>and</strong> Dion could be a big part to your team’s success.<br />
Last month – 31 st This month – 19th Fully loaded <strong>and</strong> engaged.<br />
Gabriel L<strong>and</strong>eskog, LW – COL<br />
In case you were sleeping last season, the Calder Cup winner has<br />
quickly emerged as a fully loaded weapon in extended roto leagues.<br />
After smashing home 219 hits, 270 SOG <strong>and</strong> a plus-20, his 52 points<br />
<strong>and</strong> 51 PIM complete the full serving. Colorado’s newest captain is a<br />
fantastic rotisserie recipe, <strong>and</strong> poolies should definitely want to dip<br />
into a second helping. This kid is a stud <strong>and</strong> will end up sitting among<br />
roto’s best heart <strong>and</strong> soul players ala Backes, Callahan, Lucic <strong>and</strong><br />
Brown. If he can keep his plus/minus high, slap on the monster label.<br />
Last month – 24th This month – 14th <strong>Roto</strong>-stud family welcomes you.<br />
9
Jordan Eberle, RW – EDM<br />
This is a big drop for Eberle, who was sitting just shy of the top 50<br />
last month. A big reason for that change is due to the fact that<br />
Volume 2.0 of the <strong>Roto</strong> Guide blended the trade value of a player<br />
into the roto score. This allowed for players like Eberle <strong>and</strong><br />
Duchene (below) to have a boost in roto rank. This time around,<br />
these well-liked players have tumbled.<br />
If this was a points-only league, Eberle would be a sexy pick, heck, even st<strong>and</strong>ard roto he would be ok.<br />
Though in extended roto, beyond goals (tier 2), assists (2), PPP (2), <strong>and</strong> SOG (1.75), Eberle provides<br />
nothing else. He lacks in PIM, plus/minus <strong>and</strong> doesn’t hit or blocks shots. Note that even though he<br />
doesn’t score well in the overall roto department, which this list is based on, if you can build around his<br />
strengths, Eberle can <strong>and</strong> will be a valuable piece to any team’s puzzle. Especially if there are positional<br />
requirements.<br />
His trade value is still very high (tier A), but will never be among rotisseries best unless he manages to<br />
put up consistent plus-10 (or more) player <strong>and</strong> throw his body around more. He has the potential to<br />
crack the list (C), but has some work to do, as mentioned above.<br />
Last month – 53 rd This month – N/A Valuable if built around strengths.<br />
Matt Duchene, C – COL<br />
Copy <strong>and</strong> paste the same reasoning as Jordan Eberle’s above.<br />
Duchene, like Eberle, is another sexy pick that had good value last<br />
edition because of his high trade value (A). But when placed in<br />
separate columns, his roto weaknesses arise. Unfortunately points<br />
<strong>and</strong> power play points just don’t cut it. Experienced roto poolies will<br />
be able to build around Duchene without hesitation, but to the new<br />
guys signing up in rotisserie leagues – buyer beware.<br />
Last month – 66 th This month – N/A Buyer beware. Play on strengths.<br />
Shane Doan, RW – PHX (UFA)<br />
Here is a name that has been thrown around in rotisserie leagues<br />
over the years. But with a decade of dominance comes an inevitable<br />
decrease in production. While Doan is no longer a roto stallion, he<br />
can still be a serviceable winger that will produce moderate numbers<br />
across the board. Hits (tier 2) are his highlight, along with PIM (1.5)<br />
SOG (1.5) <strong>and</strong> points (G : 1.5, A : 2). So if you temper those<br />
expectations <strong>and</strong> draft wisely, you will not be disappointed.<br />
Last month – 95 th This month – N/A Moderate roto numbers across the board.<br />
10
<strong>Roto</strong> <strong>Exclusive</strong> :<br />
<strong>Guest</strong> <strong>Contributions</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Featured</strong> <strong>Articles</strong><br />
How to win a Hits & Blocked Shots League Pengwin7 12<br />
Lockout Ready : Players Edition Tim Lucarelli 20<br />
The Benefits to a Lockout Austin Wallace 22<br />
Making the Transition : Rebuilding to Contending Doran Libin 25<br />
Vets -r-us Br<strong>and</strong>on Cheung 29<br />
2012-13 Odds <strong>and</strong> Ends Anthony Lancione 31<br />
Quick Hits – 30 Teams Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry 35<br />
11
Mastering a Hits & Blocked Shots League<br />
by Pengwin7<br />
You can win a fantasy hockey league that includes hits & blocked shots.<br />
You can do it by 1) making defensemen your key strategy 2) by thinking backwards.<br />
Dan Girardi isn’t a sexy name. Neither is Mark Stuart or Ladislav Smid.<br />
Neither is François Beauchemin. (well… maybe… that’s pretty sexy).<br />
But these are the guys that will win you your pool.<br />
François Beauchemin… sexy?<br />
Salary cap leagues are all about getting more value out of your players than what you pay them.<br />
In the NHL, Stanley Cups are won by getting more value out of your players than what you pay them.<br />
~ When Detroit won their last Cup, Datsyuk & Zetterberg were still on final years of cheap contracts.<br />
~ When Pittsburgh won their Cup, Crosby & Malkin were still on entry-level contracts.<br />
~ When Chicago won their Cup, Toews, Kane & Keith were all on final years of entry-level contracts.<br />
Even in one-year leagues, you have a « salary cap ».<br />
Every team has a 1 st round pick, a 2 nd round pick, a 3 rd round pick… <strong>and</strong> a last round pick.<br />
Winning the league is getting more value out of your picks than any other team.<br />
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Knowing this, I typically tend to invest in the safer guys in the first 2-3 rounds. If I have #1 pick, I am<br />
taking Steven Stamkos. Second round, I am perfectly happy with Martin St.Louis or a consistent guy like<br />
Eric Staal. This said, let’s shift to the part of the draft where you are most likely to win a Hits & Blocked<br />
Shots league :<br />
i) The Middle Rounds<br />
ii) The Last 5 Picks<br />
Let’s start by considering a st<strong>and</strong>ard 12 team league :<br />
*3C/3LW/3RW/4D/2G (Bench: 5, likely as 1C/1LW/1RW/1D/1G)<br />
*Skater categories: G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG… Hits, BkS<br />
We are going to compare two strategies:<br />
1) Team A : The typical “slow-balance” strategy<br />
vs.<br />
2) Team B : The “Defensemen-last” strategy<br />
With the “slow-balance” strategy, teams are consistently monitoring their positions.<br />
If they have 1C & 1LW & 0 RW, they are thinking about getting 1RW.<br />
If they have 2C & 2RW & 0 LW, they are thinking about getting 1LW, maybe 2 in back-to-back rounds.<br />
Once a team has 2 at any position… they start to focus on any position with 0.<br />
They don’t want to get too far behind in collecting at any one position.<br />
*This manager is also more focused on getting offensively-skilled defensemen.*<br />
With the “D-last” strategy, you will prepare yourself to take almost all of your defensemen in the last<br />
rounds. It is a good consideration to take one “rock” to anchor your D-group. I’d grab a solid all-around<br />
defenseman somewhere in rounds 6-9. No earlier. Whenever the opportunity presents itself, go for it.<br />
And then… you aren’t drafting another defenseman for a long, long time. In this example, we’ll use Dan<br />
Boyle as the team “rock”.<br />
*This manager is focused on drafting those late defensemen for PIM/Hits/BkS.*<br />
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To visualize the two teams, let’s start by making the first 9 draft picks, for both teams, identical:<br />
Team A : Balanced<br />
1. Perry, Corey (RW)<br />
2. Nash, Rick (LW)<br />
3. Bryzgalov, Ilya (G)<br />
4. Backstrom, Nicklas (C)<br />
5. Miller, Ryan (G)<br />
6. Boyle, Dan (D)<br />
7. Moulson, Matt (LW)<br />
8. Bergeron, Patrice (C )<br />
9. Lupul, Joffrey (RW)<br />
Team B : D-Last<br />
1. Perry, Corey (RW)<br />
2. Nash, Rick (LW)<br />
3. Bryzgalov, Ilya (G)<br />
4. Backstrom, Nicklas (C)<br />
5. Miller, Ryan (G)<br />
6. Boyle, Dan (D)<br />
7. Moulson, Matt (LW)<br />
8. Bergeron, Patrice (C )<br />
9. Lupul, Joffrey (RW)<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G<br />
We are also going to consider that some other picks are exactly the same:<br />
Team A : Balanced<br />
13. Theodore, Jose (G)<br />
14. Stewart, Chris (RW)<br />
15. Dupuis, Pascal (LW)<br />
Team B : D-Last<br />
13. Theodore, Jose (G)<br />
14. Stewart, Chris (RW)<br />
15. Dupuis, Pascal (LW)<br />
20. Boyle, Brian (C)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW/0D/1G<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G (First 9 rounds)<br />
20. Boyle, Brian (C)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW/0D/1G<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G (First 9 rounds)<br />
Going into round #10, both teams will be looking at empty starting as: 1C/1LW/1RW/3D/0G<br />
Team A balances his starting slots constantly <strong>and</strong> will look to draft 1F/2D in the next 3 rounds.<br />
Team B has resolved to get his defensemen late <strong>and</strong> will draft 3F in the next 3 rounds.<br />
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So, here’s where things get different in the middle rounds (10-12):<br />
Team A : Balanced<br />
10. Del Zotto, Michael (D)<br />
11. Koivu, Mikko (C)<br />
12. Johnson, Jack (D)<br />
1C/2D<br />
Team B : D-Last<br />
10. Semin, Alex (LW)<br />
11. Koivu, Mikko (C)<br />
12. Carter, Jeff (RW)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW<br />
Going into round #16, Team A has empty starting spots: 1D (+4 bench players, 1C,1LW,1RW,1D)<br />
Going into round #16, Team B has empty starting spots: 3D (+2 bench players, 1C/1D)<br />
And here’s the other change of drafting, in late rounds (16-19):<br />
Team A : Balanced<br />
16. Zidlicky, Marek (D)<br />
17. Dubinsky, Br<strong>and</strong>on (LW)<br />
18. Erat, Martin (RW)<br />
19. Liles, JM (D)<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G (First 9 rounds)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW/0D/1G (Rounds<br />
10,11,12,20)<br />
1C/2D<br />
1LW/1RW/2D<br />
Team B : D-Last<br />
16. Seabrook, Brent (D)<br />
17. Seidenberg, Dennis (D)<br />
18. Girardi, Dan (D)<br />
19. Stuart, Mark (D)<br />
2C/2LW/2RW/1D/2G (First 9 rounds)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW/0D/1G (Rounds<br />
10,11,12,20)<br />
1C/1LW/1RW<br />
4D<br />
Team A & Team B have completed their drafts.<br />
Of the 20 drafted players, Team A & Team B have 14 players the same.<br />
Team A & Team B have 6 players drafted differently: 1LW/1RW/4D.<br />
15
Comparing the statistics of these players will identify the difference in value :<br />
Team A’s Draft Picks (Rounds 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19) - Balanced<br />
Player G A +/- PIM SOG PPP Hits BkS<br />
Del Zotto (D) 10 35 +15 40 125 18 150 100<br />
J.Johnson (D) 15 30 -15 40 200 20 110 130<br />
Zidlicky (D) 5 30 +5 35 100 15 75 75<br />
Dubinsky (LW) 15 30 -10 110 150 10 200 50<br />
Erat (RW) 20 40 +10 30 150 17 55 45<br />
Liles (D) 8 22 -10 20 115 15 70 120<br />
TOTAL = 73 187 -5 275 840 95 660 520<br />
*All values above are rough projection/estimates for the sake of comparison. Use at your own risk!*<br />
Team A (Balanced) went after two skilled D puck-movers.<br />
• Grabbing Del Zotto cost them the overall points & better SOG that a forward could get at this<br />
slot.<br />
• Grabbing J.Johnson cost them the overall points & better +/- that a forward could get at this<br />
slot.<br />
• Later in the draft they had to make up Hits by taking Dubinsky (whose +/- <strong>and</strong> general points will<br />
be low).<br />
If you only have one defenseman after 9 rounds, are you taking Del Zotto or Semin?<br />
16
Team B’s Draft Picks (Rounds 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19) :<br />
Player G A +/- PIM SOG PPP Hits BkS<br />
Semin (LW) 25 40 +5 50 200 25 30 20<br />
Carter (RW) 25 35 +5 30 220 20 20 20<br />
Seabrook (D) 8 25 +20 30 150 5 200 150<br />
Seidenberg (D) 5 20 +20 40 180 10 150 150<br />
Girardi (D) 5 25 +15 25 120 10 200 180<br />
M.Stuart (D) 5 15 -5 100 60 0 200 180<br />
TOTAL = 73 160 +60 275 950 70 800 700<br />
*All values above are rough projection/estimates for the sake of comparison. Use at your own risk!*<br />
Team B (D-Last) went after forwards first, leaving Hits/BkS defensemen to the very end.<br />
• Grabbing Semin represents a sacrifice on Hits/BkS… but that can be made up with the late D.<br />
Semin is a point-booster <strong>and</strong> PPP/SOG booster over most D at this spot.<br />
• Similar to Semin, Carter doesn’t get any Hits/BkS… but he does give you an upgrade over D in<br />
Points/SOG <strong>and</strong> probably PPP.<br />
• Seabrook quickly restocks Hits/Bks, helps +/-. He has a poor PPP. 33pts is not bad.<br />
• Seidenberg restocks the low Hits/BkS. He’d good for +/-.<br />
• Girardi is a great Hits/BkS player who has a chance to fill into some NYR PP time.<br />
• Mark Stuart really helps in two categories AND PIM, at the expense of a poor SOG total… but<br />
you are hoping that what you stocked in your mid-round forwards can balance that out.<br />
• Defensemen drafted for Hits/BkS/PIM are also very replaceable. You may find that you want to<br />
switch out Mark Stuart (if Winnipeg plays 2 games in week) for Theo Peckham (if EDM plays 4<br />
games in a week). If your league allows it, streaming in defensemen to take advantage of<br />
scheduling can be a significant benefit.<br />
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Now compare the category totals :<br />
Team G A +/- PIM SOG PPP Hits BkS<br />
Team A – Balanced 73 187 -5 275 840 95 660 520<br />
Team B – D-Last 73 160 +60 275 950 70 800 700<br />
2: Goals/PIM are two very even categories.<br />
2: Team A has a distinct advantage in Assists & PPP. + 2 categories for Team A.<br />
4: Team B has a distinct advantage in +/-, SOG, Hits & BkS. + 4 categories for Team B.<br />
Beyond this, let’s break these totals down by dividing them by 22 weeks of H2H schedule.<br />
Team A: G=3.3, A=8.5, +/- = -0.2, PIM=12.5, SOG = 38, PPP = 4.3, Hits = 30, BkS = 24<br />
Team B: G=3.3, A=7.3, +/- = +2.7, PIM=12.5, SOG = 43, PPP = 3.2, Hits = 36, BkS = 32<br />
Anybody who is in a league with SHP as a category knows that just 1 SHP might win the week.<br />
Lower quantity categories are more likely to result in weeks where the lesser-stat team might steal the<br />
win.<br />
Here, Assists would be won in a typical week by Team A by a score of 8.5 to 7.3.<br />
But in any week, the assist totals of these players on either team may fluctuate by 0-3 assists.<br />
Meaning… Team B is likely to win some weeks… maybe 30%-40%.<br />
PPP would be won in a typical week by Team A by a score of 4.3 to 3.2.<br />
But in any week, the PPP totals of these players may fluctuate by 0-2 PPP.<br />
The same is true of Team B’s +/- difference.<br />
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The two most secure categories to win consistently are the highest-quantity categories: Hits/BkS.<br />
In my one-year league last year, I finished the 22 H2H weeks as 20-2-0 & 21-1-0 in these two categories.<br />
Despite having a team of underperforming early forward draft picks (Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf, Jeff<br />
Carter) I was able to finish 3 rd in a 12-team league.<br />
As a summary, if Team A played Team B 22 times, the victories each week could l<strong>and</strong> around:<br />
G: Team A 11 wins, Team B 11 wins<br />
A: Team A 14 wins, Team B 8 wins<br />
+/-: Team A 8 wins, Team B 14 wins<br />
PIM: Team A 11 wins, Team B 11 wins<br />
SOG: Team A 8 wins, Team B 14 wins<br />
PPP: Team A 16 wins, Team B 6 wins (PPP is Team A’s biggest strength 95/70 = +35%)<br />
Hits: Team A 6 wins, Team B 16 wins<br />
BkS: Team A 4 wins, Team B 18 wins (BkS is Team B’s biggest strength 700/520 = +35%)<br />
Totals:<br />
Team A: 80-96 = 45.5%<br />
Team B: 96-80 = 54.5%<br />
Planning to win a Hits/BkS league is not difficult. The tack-on categories (Hits/BkS) are still two<br />
categories. A category is a category, whether it is goals or BkS. Never forget this. If you can dominate a<br />
category by taking players late in your draft, do it. This strategy is the value over investment that wins<br />
championships. Since defensemen are the only position that really rakes in the Blocked Shots in large<br />
quantities, you need to draft those players to stock that category. And once that’s your strategy, focus<br />
on getting any other categories to make those late D picks well-rounded. The best BkS defensemen can<br />
also be found with big hit totals, good +/-, or substantial PIM. Grab ‘em late <strong>and</strong> use your middle rounds<br />
to stock forwards. Let everybody else worry about filling out their empty D slots. You’ll make up<br />
Hits/BkS at the end of your draft… <strong>and</strong> you’ll do it well.<br />
D is for Domination.<br />
~ Pengwin7<br />
19
Lockout Ready : Players Edition<br />
(who can benefit from a lockout)<br />
by Tim Lucarelli<br />
Alex Burmistrov<br />
Burmistrov is a very skilled forward, but he has struggled to produce consistently. Anyone who has<br />
watched the Jets can attest to the fact that Burmistrov has flashes where he looks like an elite, skilled<br />
forward who can compete with the best of them. But then a few games go by <strong>and</strong> he fades back into the<br />
player who is still finding his way. Thanks to the free agent acquisitions that Winnipeg has made, if the<br />
NHL season were to start today, Burmistrov would likely end up stuck on the third line with the same<br />
developmental barriers he has been seeing. Whether he plays in St. John’s – where he is eligible to play –<br />
or for a KHL team in his homel<strong>and</strong> Russia, Burmistrov would benefit significantly in the case of a lockout.<br />
Cam Fowler<br />
Fowler had an impressive rookie campaign, but definitely hit a sophomore slump scoring only 29 points<br />
in year two. Like most young players, Fowler has specifically struggled in his own end, posting a minus-<br />
53 rating in his short career. With a year left on his entry-level contract, Fowler will have the opportunity<br />
to fine-tune his skills in Norfolk with guys like Emerson Etem, Kyle Palmieri, <strong>and</strong> Sami Vatanen.<br />
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/Taylor Hall/Jordan Eberle<br />
OK, it’s not one player, but these three go together. All three are AHL-eligible, <strong>and</strong> they would probably<br />
all be fine playing in the NHL next year. Now, it’s one thing to dominate in the AHL for a year <strong>and</strong> then<br />
re-join the rest of your teammates who have been training elsewhere. It’s another thing to dominate in<br />
the AHL with both of your linemates. Just imagine the confidence these three will bring once NHL action<br />
resumes.<br />
20
Nino Niederreiter<br />
Niederreiter had an atrocious year, posting only one measly<br />
point <strong>and</strong> a minus-29 rating in 55 games. Isl<strong>and</strong>ers’ coach Jack<br />
Capuano has still had positive things to say about him, but the<br />
fact of the matter is that Niederreiter is not ready to skate at<br />
the NHL level. Last year the Isl<strong>and</strong>ers chose to keep him<br />
around to gain NHL exposure despite the poor performance,<br />
but if there were to be a lockout, Nino would have the luxury<br />
of regrouping at the level he should. Additionally, the<br />
frustrating year will just add motivation.<br />
Derek Stepan<br />
Stepan has progressing well, but to get to that next level, he needs to find his offensive touch once<br />
again. During the last lockout, Jason Spezza <strong>and</strong> Eric Staal dominated the AHL, which led to a very<br />
successful NHL campaign once the lockout was resolved. Stepan might have a lower ceiling, but some<br />
added confidence could do marvels for his development.<br />
Ryan Johansen<br />
Johansen has a ton of potential, but he was most concerned with just keeping his head above water in<br />
his rookie year, where he posted a respectable 21 points <strong>and</strong> minus-two rating for the team who<br />
finished statistically worst in the st<strong>and</strong>ings. One thing you never want to do is instill an acceptance of a<br />
losing attitude, which is why it probably wouldn’t hurt for Johansen to get some time in for another club<br />
before re-joining the Blue Jackets.<br />
Chris Pronger<br />
It is possible that Pronger’s career is over, but it is also possible that a full<br />
year of rest (which he likely needs even if there isn’t a lockout) he would<br />
be able to return to NHL action after all. It might be a longshot, but the<br />
combination of rest <strong>and</strong> lack of media spotlight may just do wonders for<br />
Pronger’s career.<br />
Marcus Johansson<br />
Johansson is another player who would benefit largely from a lockout, specifically because he already<br />
has NHL experience <strong>and</strong> knows the level of effort <strong>and</strong> talent required to be a successful NHL player. He is<br />
also in that developmental stage where it is one thing to know what needs to be done, but it’s another<br />
thing to actually carry it out <strong>and</strong> be a consistent performer. Getting some confidence back in the AHL or<br />
even a European league should translate to a more confident <strong>and</strong> consistent Johansson once the NHL<br />
resumes play.<br />
~ Tim Lucarelli<br />
21
The Benefits to a Lockout<br />
by Austin “austeane” Wallace<br />
In any article, anywhere, anytime anyone in anyway states that a full year lockout is a good thing for<br />
____ (insert NHL player or team), it is a relative term. Anyhow (there goes my last "any"), there are<br />
definitely players, teams <strong>and</strong> leagues that are hurt less than others. In fantasy, this is what we should be<br />
concerned about. It doesn't matter if your players all hit career lows in power-play points if that was due<br />
to a massive reduction in penalties called throughout the NHL, as you will likely not be at a disadvantage<br />
in relation to the other teams. The same is true here.<br />
Will the Edmonton Oilers be hurt by a year lockout?<br />
No. A precious year of their ELC induced magic window will have been sacrificed. Any possible chemistry<br />
between the last three first overall picks will almost certainly be set back by a year. If the past is any<br />
guide, they would probably have a better chance at l<strong>and</strong>ing Nathan Mackinnon or Seth Jones if the<br />
season was played out rather than by a lottery.<br />
Will the Oilers be hurt by said lockout in relation to other teams?<br />
No. They do not lose a year of a championship window. Players such as Yakupov <strong>and</strong> Shultz will have<br />
time to play <strong>and</strong> possibly dominate in a pro league before being thrust into the spotlight. They have<br />
relatively few veterans who will deteriorate with age. And despite reports that Ryan Whitney is healthy,<br />
any rest is good rest for him.<br />
With those differences out of the way, let us look at some players in leagues that will benefit from a<br />
lockout. A quick note: You can read more about this topic in other parts of this <strong>Roto</strong> guide as well as<br />
multiple superb pieces from Jeff Angus at his blog Angus Certified on the way that specific teams will be<br />
affected. If you are in a knowledgeable, competitive league, the chances that you are the only one of<br />
your league mates reading this is slim. Thus, I will try to give you an advantage by showing you the tools<br />
with which you can find your own gems.<br />
Leagues with players who will benefit (relatively) from a lockout:<br />
Unanimous #1 (voting conducted by Austin Wallace <strong>and</strong> I):<br />
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The NHL<br />
Partial lockout benefit (assuming that the lockout ends in early December, just enough time to<br />
appease HBO <strong>and</strong> the owner's pockets [which are obviously starved of cash]): 10/10<br />
Full lockout benefit: 7/10<br />
That's right. The NHL will be the league that most benefits from a lockout. Notable members should<br />
include Brodeur, Kelser, Quick <strong>and</strong> many others. The No Hockey League is for National Hockey League<br />
players to take some time off <strong>and</strong> rest due to age or injury. The chances that Kesler would come back<br />
too soon from another labrum surgery are about the same that DiPietro will (not) play a few games in<br />
this league in the next couple months, <strong>and</strong> not necessarily of his own volition.<br />
Take a look around for established fantasy producers who have been rehabbing an injury this summer or<br />
for those that will likely not play elsewhere due to age. If you project a significant, partial year, lockout,<br />
then rankings that do not will underrate these players. I have been looking into this a bit <strong>and</strong> I believe<br />
that there is a causal relationship between training time (versus rehab or playing time) in the offseason<br />
<strong>and</strong> fantasy production. Not only will Kesler <strong>and</strong> company be basically forced to properly rehab their<br />
injury, they will have time to return to top form.<br />
However, if you project a full year lockout, then older players fall down a notch as father time will take<br />
his toll, whether Jagr is tearing up European leagues or sitting on his couch, watching junior hockey.<br />
The AHL<br />
Partial lockout benefit: 9/10<br />
Full lockout benefit: 7/10<br />
The AHL st<strong>and</strong>s to be the (real) league in which its players will most benefit from a partial year lockout.<br />
Players who may not be entirely fantasy relevant in one year leagues without a lockout, may get a boost<br />
in value from playing in the AHL. Players in that league will face a game that is most similar to the NHL's<br />
than any other league <strong>and</strong> should, theoretically, be best suited to jump to.<br />
If Derek Stepan dominates the AHL, he could have the necessary<br />
confidence to jump right onto the top line of the Rangers or at least<br />
1b <strong>and</strong> bypass any fantasy predictions that a guide might make.<br />
If your league allows transactions during the lockout, closely follow<br />
players that excel against AHL-plus competition <strong>and</strong> don't be afraid<br />
to take a chance on someone lighting it up against NHL players,<br />
even if the general opinion is dim on that player.<br />
In keeper leagues, there are a multitude of prospects for whom the best level of competition <strong>and</strong><br />
opportunity for them developmentally lies between the AHL <strong>and</strong> what is available to them in the NHL.<br />
Eddie Lack is possibly the best goalie in the world to not have appeared in an NHL game. He has also<br />
excelled against NHL competition. However, he won't play in the NHL until one of the two franchise<br />
goaltenders ahead of him moves on <strong>and</strong> he proves that he can be relied on in pressure situations against<br />
23
exceptional completion. When you can't go to the talent, the next best thing is having the talent come<br />
to him. By playing against more (<strong>and</strong> higher quality) NHL shooters, Lack should be able to hone his skills<br />
<strong>and</strong> confidence enough that he is guaranteed the backup role for the Canucks, after a certain trade has<br />
finally been made.<br />
Any player/prospect in the AHL whose spot on the depth chart is not negatively affected has a chance<br />
during the lockout to wow us <strong>and</strong> their teams <strong>and</strong> to fast track their development.<br />
The KHL<br />
Partial lockout benefit: 6/10<br />
Full lockout benefit: +/- 8/10<br />
Of the three leagues presented here, it is likely that many Russian players will play in the KHL, given that<br />
Russian players are more welcome than other NHL imports. It is also likely that the vast majority of them<br />
will come back to play in the NHL. However, there is always a risk that an NHL player, Russian or not, is<br />
poached to that league, at least for the rest of the season. It is considered to be second to only the NHL<br />
in terms of skill level. However, from all accounts, the KHL has a significantly different playing style than<br />
the NHL. In the case of a partial season lockout, it may take players, who are now used to the KHL,<br />
longer to reacclimatize to the NHL rink <strong>and</strong> style.<br />
If there is a full season lockout, that is another story. In that case, an NHL player could enjoy success, the<br />
playoffs <strong>and</strong> good competition while still having time to train for the next NHL season. However, NHLers<br />
who sign in the KHL for a full year could potentially be lured back for more of the stardom that they<br />
experienced. If there is any hint of the NHL lockout going for more than one season, there could be a<br />
veritable flood of talent from all nations to the KHL. Thus the plus/minus sign in front of the KHL's full<br />
year lockout rating. Although a player may develop more in the KHL than the AHL, it does not mean that<br />
success (or their new language) will translate to the NHL.<br />
~ Austin Wallace<br />
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Making the Transition from Rebuilding to Contending<br />
by Doran Libin<br />
At the end of the 2006-07 season, the Atlanta Thrashers acquired Keith Tkachuk <strong>and</strong> Alexei Zhitnik in<br />
order to make themselves contenders. In doing so, The Thrashers gave up a promising young<br />
defenseman in Braydon Coburn for Zhitnik, while their 18 game rental of Keith Tkachuk cost them Glen<br />
Metropolit, a first <strong>and</strong> third round pick in 2007 <strong>and</strong> a second in 2008. Tkachuk contributed nearly a point<br />
per game for the Thrashers <strong>and</strong> returned to the Blues the next season. Zhitnik went on to tally 22 points<br />
over the next 83 games before leaving for the KHL before the 2008-09 season, while Coburn has become<br />
a staple on the Flyers blueline. The Thrashers ended up losing in the first round that year in four games<br />
<strong>and</strong> did not have another winning season before they moved to Winnipeg. It can be argued that this<br />
failed transition went on to cost them Ilya Kovalchuk after the 2009-10 season.<br />
The Thrashers had a strong 2006-07 season but given what<br />
happened the following seasons it really begs the question as to how<br />
well they evaluated their team <strong>and</strong> the state of their organization. The<br />
following year Kari Lehtonen got injured, <strong>and</strong> regressed a little, Tkachuk<br />
left as a rental, Marian Hossa missed 20 games, <strong>and</strong> the team ended up<br />
with little scoring punch outside of Ilya Kovalchuk. The premature push<br />
the Thrashers made to become contenders resulted in a return to<br />
another five years of struggling <strong>and</strong> rebuilding. Now, as the Jets, the<br />
franchise seems to be taking a more measured approached to<br />
rebuilding <strong>and</strong> it will be intriguing to see how they approach this<br />
transition the second time around.<br />
Many fantasy hockey teams face the same dilemma when trying to make the leap from<br />
rebuilding to contending. Timing <strong>and</strong> price play such a huge role in this decision, <strong>and</strong> as the example of<br />
the Thrashers shows, that if it goes astray it can reset a rebuild or leave a team mired in mediocrity.<br />
Rebuilding is often a long <strong>and</strong> painful experience that is made all the worse<br />
when it becomes a constant. To avoid being relegated to a constant rebuild, or<br />
to the purgatory that is the middle, the process of a realistic evaluation of three<br />
factors related to the rebuilding team is immensely important. The first factor is<br />
an evaluation of the team in question, both coming off last season <strong>and</strong> looking<br />
forward. Second, evaluate the state of the rest of the league. Finally, an analysis<br />
of what needs to be added to the team in order to become a contender <strong>and</strong> it is<br />
imperative to follow the advice of Timothy Oliphant, in The Girl Next Door, <strong>and</strong><br />
ask whether “the juice is worth the squeeze?”<br />
25
3 Factors<br />
1. Know the team<br />
Knowing the team is the single most important factor when deciding whether to move from rebuilding<br />
to contending. This evaluation requires asking a number of questions ranging from how true a reflection<br />
of the team’s current potential last season of the team’s true ability to the ability to sustain a dynasty. It<br />
is important to ask questions about both the present <strong>and</strong> the future because unless the plan is to<br />
become the Florida Marlins of your league, occasional one shot wonders, the goal of a rebuild should be<br />
to stay on top of the league for a prolonged period of time. Thus while the questions about the team<br />
now will determine whether the base to compete immediately exists, the questions of the future will<br />
determine whether the organization can pay the price to compete now <strong>and</strong> still be competitive down<br />
the road. Being objective <strong>and</strong> realistic during this analysis will be the toughest because it is always tough<br />
not to believe that we have built the best team. This process involves answering the following questions:<br />
A. Was last season an anomaly?<br />
- An abnormally large number of players having all had career years on the same team<br />
means it is likely they will not all reach those levels again the next season. Be aware that<br />
younger players don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion (see Matt Duchene last<br />
year). Some metrics can help ascertain the extent to which those career highs were<br />
anomalies or a sign of future highs to come.<br />
- Did one player have an abnormally good year? Be sure to get a good grasp of how likely<br />
it is that said player will return to form. Make sure the factors that helped that player<br />
succeed are still in play. In Mike Smith’s case the fact that Tippett <strong>and</strong> Burke remain in<br />
Phoenix <strong>and</strong> the return of Zbynek Michalek make another strong year more likely (note:<br />
I may be biased as I have Mike Smith)<br />
- Is that Ray Sheppard after the 1993/94 season or Martin St Louis after 2003/04?<br />
Catching the signs of a sell-high c<strong>and</strong>idate can help avoid the crash of a regression to the<br />
norm.<br />
B. What development or regression is expected?<br />
- Which prospects can be counted on to make the jump which ones are a risk. This can be<br />
as much about the depth of the prospect’s NHL team in question as it is about the<br />
prospect’s skill level <strong>and</strong> potential (see Brendan Smith in Detroit last year).<br />
- It is less likely that a rebuilding team will be leaning heavily on older players nearing the<br />
end of their careers but it may have been a couple of older players who helped push the<br />
team toward contention but may not be around when actually making the jump.<br />
C. How is the team set up for the long term?<br />
- When coming off a rebuilding phase it is likely the core of the team is filled with younger<br />
players. This should not however consist of just a couple young studs as successful<br />
contenders have depth. The middle can be reached based on a couple young studs but<br />
not the top.<br />
- In leagues with prospect rosters, make sure that all the prospect depth is not already<br />
tied up in the team. Will paying the cost to make the jump to contending completely<br />
wipe out the prospect roster? Successful NHL dynasties like Detroit are in that situation<br />
because they have a pipeline of talent to replenish the NHL roster. Make sure that the<br />
potential for this exists in the organization in question as well.<br />
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2. Know the league<br />
The state of the rest of the league, the competition, will be a major determining factor in choosing the<br />
right time to transition to being a contender. How strong, or weak, the competition is will determine<br />
how quickly it is possible to become a contender <strong>and</strong> the price to become a contender. To this end it is<br />
necessary to be knowledgeable of the entire league, not just the top end teams. The following league<br />
factors are important:<br />
A. How good are the top teams?<br />
- If there’s a large gap between the transitioning team <strong>and</strong> the top teams in the league it<br />
may not be reasonable to assume that becoming an immediate contender is an option.<br />
In that case it may not be the best time to make a major jump, a smaller interim step up<br />
may be appropriate. The transition does not have to happen in one fell swoop. TIMING!<br />
B. How many teams are rebuilding?<br />
- The more rebuilding teams there are in the league the easier it is to trade prospects for<br />
established players. Simple supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>.<br />
- The more rebuilding teams there are the less legitimate competition there will be when<br />
becoming a contender.<br />
C. How many other teams are transitioning?<br />
- If there are a lot of teams also trying to make the transition it may be harder to<br />
successfully transition <strong>and</strong> become a contender. The state of the other transitioning<br />
teams <strong>and</strong> whether they are ahead or behind in their rebuild should inform when to<br />
make a move.<br />
- A large number of transitioning teams may also mean that it makes more sense to wait<br />
a year to transition. Teams that have not accurately assessed their situation may be<br />
more willing to pay a very high cost to make the jump. If those teams end up like the<br />
NHL Thrashers the assets they move will only increase in value. In this sense consider<br />
the value proposition of taking advantage of teams over-anxious to get out of the<br />
rebuild. TIMING!<br />
3. Know the Cost<br />
This summer in the NHL we saw the Minnesota Wild make two major transitional moves in<br />
signing Zach Parise <strong>and</strong> Ryan Suter. While the Wild may not be an immediate contender before<br />
prospects like Granlund, Coyle, Phillips <strong>and</strong> Brodin become legitimate NHLers these acquisitions will<br />
make becoming a contender easier. Acquiring Parise <strong>and</strong> Suter cost the Wild nothing, except cap space,<br />
something that is often not an option in fantasy hockey. Thus it is all the more important to ensure that<br />
a plan is in place, an accurate idea exists of the pieces needed <strong>and</strong> the assets that can be moved to add<br />
those pieces.<br />
27
To that end an important principle of negotiating is to know your fallback position, also known<br />
as the principle of the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA). This principle translates to<br />
the idea of transitioning to contending in the sense that it is important to underst<strong>and</strong> that if the price of<br />
becoming a contender is too high another year of rebuilding <strong>and</strong> developing must be considered an<br />
option. It may also be possible to take small steps <strong>and</strong> bring the team closer without actually making the<br />
major jump. Remember the transition does not have to happen all in one season/off-season. The<br />
smaller steps will only make it easier to make the jump the following year. The price needed to become<br />
a contender will come from the answers to the questions asked about the state of the team <strong>and</strong> the<br />
league. Knowing the team <strong>and</strong> the league will help to accurately assess what the team/organization<br />
needs <strong>and</strong> what everyone else needs. It will dictate the supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> for players that will help in<br />
the transition <strong>and</strong> the players that can be moved to acquire more immediate assets. Furthermore,<br />
knowing the transitioning team will help make sure the pieces acquired will help now <strong>and</strong> make sense<br />
long-term.<br />
In closing, the transition from rebuilding to contending does not have to happen in one offseason<br />
or one season. Constantly re-assessing the state of any rebuilding team/organization will inform<br />
the decision of when to transition. A rebuilding team that is a ways from the transition stage may be<br />
catapulted forward because of a trade, an NHL development or league developments. Keeping an open<br />
mind will allow the smart fantasy hockey manager to take advantage of any number of these factors to<br />
transition at the right time.<br />
4. My Personal Example<br />
For me, last year was supposed to be another year in the<br />
bottom 10 of a 30 team salary cap dynasty league. During the year<br />
I focused on consolidating some of my prospect depth <strong>and</strong> some<br />
veteran talent for more elite NHL-ready prospects. In doing so I<br />
acquired Mikael Granlund <strong>and</strong> Brayden Schenn. During the year<br />
the emergence of Mike Smith vaulted me into the middle of the<br />
league, he was a gamble that paid off much more than I had dared<br />
to hope. When I realized the price I desired for Smith was not<br />
forthcoming I realized I had a decision on my h<strong>and</strong>s. Two teams deciding to go into rebuilding mode<br />
helped make my decision for me. I was able to acquire Dustin Byfuglien late last season <strong>and</strong> then this<br />
off-season I upgraded my forwards to Martin Erat, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron <strong>and</strong> Erik Cole from<br />
David Jones, Devin Setoguchi, Matt Cullen <strong>and</strong> Paul Gaustad as I needed to build on my core of Tavares,<br />
Seguin, Jack Johnson, Hedman, Gardiner <strong>and</strong> Mike Smith. These acquisitions also mean that I do not<br />
need Tarasenko, B Schenn, Mikeal Granlund, Leblanc, Tyson Barrie <strong>and</strong> Brendan Smith to make major<br />
contributions. While this cost some of my prospect depth, along with some added depth, I now believe<br />
myself to be on the verge of the top 10 in my league. I have also made sure that I still have a number of<br />
top prospects on the way, such as Markstrom, Dumba <strong>and</strong> Joe Colborne.<br />
~ Doran Libin<br />
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Veterans-r-us<br />
by Br<strong>and</strong>on Cheung<br />
It is an old fantasy hockey adage that most of us know well; proven<br />
over potential. For those of you that know me, you will notice that this is a<br />
rule I live by. It could be because I would rather win now than put myself in<br />
a state of constant rebuild, or maybe it is simply because I do not feel<br />
confident enough in my prospect knowledge to invest too much on<br />
potential. Regardless, the end result is a team that is competitive to the<br />
very end, <strong>and</strong> is typically very cost-efficient to assemble. Often times<br />
fantasy owners will bend over backwards to obtain promising players who<br />
have yet to break out, while completely ignoring the undervalued veteran<br />
players that could be had for a far lower price.<br />
The best time to target these players is the season after a perceived down-year. The anxiety<br />
caused by an older player is much stronger, as fantasy owners begin to wonder if it is a sign of a gradual<br />
decline. This makes them prime trade targets, as you could very well find yourself with this year’s Patrik<br />
Elias, who scored 78 points at the age of 35. Or Zdeno Chara, who hit the highest point total of his career<br />
at 35. Or even Ray Whitney, who finished 13 th in scoring at the age of 39. The key is to look for the<br />
indicators of success; situational ice time, strong supporting cast, <strong>and</strong> a strong finish to the previous<br />
season. So whether you’re a prime contender for your keeper league championship, or you’re looking<br />
for an edge in your one-year league, this article is for you. Here is a look at some veterans that will be 35<br />
years or older <strong>and</strong> are in good situations to prove that they still have gas left in the tank.<br />
Jarome Iginla – Notorious for having a strong work ethic, the 35-year old Flames<br />
captain is often said to have the conditioning of a man two or three years younger.<br />
Despite posting only 67 points last season, owners can take comfort in the fact that<br />
until Iginla retires or is traded, he will be leaned on to score. Iginla plays heavy minutes<br />
on the powerplay, where the addition of Dennis Wideman should help him get back<br />
above the 20 powerplay point mark. While Iggy only scored 12 points in his first 23<br />
games, he turned on the jets in December to score 55 points in the remaining 59,<br />
making him a strong c<strong>and</strong>idate to bounce back to75-80 points with his usual solid<br />
peripherals.<br />
Martin St.Louis – At 5-9, this 37-year old has been no stranger to adversity. This past season he<br />
experienced a ‘down-year’, scoring 74 points in 77 games. St.Louis also missed games to injury for the<br />
first time since 2005-2006, but came back re-born. In the 50 games post-injury, St.Louis scored 51<br />
points. The Lightning powerplay was also the sixth-worst in the league, dropping him to only 16<br />
powerplay points, a far cry from his usual 30-40. From both a durability <strong>and</strong> production st<strong>and</strong>point, you<br />
can’t get much more reliable than St.Louis. For the 2012-2013 season, look for St.Louis to get back to<br />
north of 80 points.<br />
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Teemu Selanne – “Forget this, I go play hockey”.<br />
At the venerable age of 42, the Finnish Flash has<br />
decided to play for another year. Selanne is a lock<br />
for top powerplay minutes <strong>and</strong> will likely line once<br />
again with fellow countryman Saku Koivu, whom<br />
he has tremendous chemistry with. Last season,<br />
the Ducks as a whole appeared to be snake-bitten<br />
as they finished bottom 10 in goals for <strong>and</strong><br />
powerplay conversion. Look for them to improve<br />
this year, specifically on the powerplay where Selanne does the most damage. For this season*, Selanne<br />
should post at least 60, while having the upside for 70. Selanne also provides great roto value for<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ard leagues as he tends to produce 200+ shots, 40+ penalty minutes, <strong>and</strong> 30+ powerplay points.<br />
*Assuming there is no lockout<br />
Dan Boyle – The Sharks’ Dan Boyle will be entering this season at the mature age of 36, but that should<br />
not deter fantasy owners from taking a long look at him. In 2011-2012, Boyle scored 48 points ranking<br />
him eighth among defensemen in scoring, <strong>and</strong> posted a career-high 252 shots on goal. The Sharks are<br />
playing to Boyle’s strengths, as he logged a team-high 3:56 on the powerplay while only 1:30<br />
shorth<strong>and</strong>ed, ranking him fifth among Sharks defensemen. Note that Boyle only managed 17 powerplay<br />
points last season, which was his lowest total since the 2003-2004 season. With a modest increase in<br />
production on that front, Boyle could push for 50 points in 2012-2013.<br />
Kimmo Timonen – Prior to last season it looked like Timonen was trending down. The point totals went<br />
down as his age went up. Toss in a Chris Pronger injury, <strong>and</strong> suddenly the 37-year old made his way back<br />
into fantasy relevance with 43 points. It’s hard to say if those two incidents were directly related, as his<br />
ice time did not change too drastically, but the numbers showed that Timonen produced more without<br />
Pronger. In the 63 games played without Pronger, Timonen scored 38 points, compared to only five<br />
points in 13 games with. Given the departure of Carle <strong>and</strong> the injury to Meszaros, look for Timonen to<br />
shoulder the load once again <strong>and</strong> hit the 45 point mark with average peripherals.<br />
Niklas Backstrom – With the additions of Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, <strong>and</strong> Mikael Granlund to their roster,<br />
the Minnesota Wild are set to ice one of the best squads in team history. That bodes well for their<br />
goaltender, as despite recording an impressive .919 save percentage<br />
<strong>and</strong> a solid 2.43 goals against average, Backstrom still ended up well<br />
below .500, with a record of 19-18-7. Backstrom will be turning 35 in<br />
February, <strong>and</strong> is playing for a new contract which will surely provide<br />
some extra motivation. While durability <strong>and</strong> the presence of Josh<br />
Harding have typically stood in the way of his success in recent years,<br />
this season is easily the best shot Backstrom has gotten in the past<br />
five years at returning to the 30-win plateau.<br />
~ Br<strong>and</strong>on Cheung (aka bondon)<br />
30
2012-13 Odds <strong>and</strong> Ends<br />
by Anthony Lancione<br />
Unlike the 04-05’ lockout which featured earth-shaking changes to the hockey l<strong>and</strong>scape, with<br />
monumental financial <strong>and</strong> structural differences at center stage of labor unrest, this time around you’ll<br />
notice the apocalypse feel really isn’t there. In 2012, Its more about tweaking <strong>and</strong> fine tuning the<br />
incumbent cap world NHL to essentially help prop up the bottom feeders, while mutually adjusting the<br />
existing formulae to ensure the revenue sharing pot gets re-distributed to serve the greater good of<br />
both the owners as a whole & the NHLPA relative to the first trial run (2004-2012).<br />
Projecting league-wide totals for the parity-rich NHL is normally both a tricky proposition <strong>and</strong> an inexact<br />
science, proving to be a daunting task for even the finest feathered odds makers in the bowels of Vegas’<br />
top sports books. Take for instance, Yahoo Sports’ (<strong>and</strong> most of our) 2011-12 projection of a 30th place<br />
finish for the Ottawa Senators last season, set at a 74.5 over-under point total, despite Murray’s Men<br />
ultimately rolling out a valiant 92 point playoff campaign!<br />
So with an impending lockout verdict all but formally announced, I venture to take a bit of different spin<br />
on setting the stage for the 2012-13 season from a gaming perspective. There is simply no sense in<br />
rambling off projections based on a full 82-game calendar at this point given the uncertainty of a season<br />
length. Moreover, I’ll be classifying those clubs with any realistic shot at the big trophy into 3 valuebased<br />
categories signifying their likelihood to succeed coupled with their likelihood to indicate where<br />
you can unearth some good value futures.<br />
In the Cap world NHL, it’s becoming an increasingly st<strong>and</strong>ard practice to hedge your risk, spreading your<br />
eggs over a few baskets, given the number of realistic contenders in this day <strong>and</strong> age, while still allowing<br />
you to collect some coin so long as 1 of yours hit. So I will embolden a couple franchises in each<br />
classification for you to consider.<br />
‘Been To The Dance’ Heavy Hitters<br />
(This group is reserved for your cream of the crop of the NHL, the past 4 cup winners & runner-ups.)<br />
Pittsburgh Penguins 8/1<br />
Vancouver Canucks 10/1<br />
Los Angeles Kings 12/1<br />
Philadelphia Flyers 13/1<br />
Chicago Blackhawks 14/1<br />
Detroit Red Wings 15/1<br />
Boston Bruins 16/1<br />
New Jersey Devils 28/1<br />
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The Skinny: The glut of this group no doubt contains the deepest cores of offensive talent in the league,<br />
with a few of them also laying claim to elite-end suffocating d-men corps. Albeit, here’s a little<br />
perspective for you to consider: At first glance it’s clear the Pittsburgh Penguins & New York Rangers are<br />
pegged as the top dogs heading into the season. The world’s most dangerous duo are now both healthy<br />
to start a season for the first time in a couple years. However, the league leading 8-1 odds<br />
accompanying them (NHL’s smallest payout offering due to highest likelihood to succeed)—is really just<br />
a reminder at how times of changed; Specifically, how much the league-wide competition level has<br />
tightened up in the past decade.<br />
Moreover, in the top heavy pre-salary cap NHL, 10 years ago today, the defending champion Detroit<br />
RedWings lay claim to title of favourite for the 2003 Cup (Ok..Well not everything in the league has fully<br />
evolved!) However, the degree they were favoured was double as strong as the Pens & Rangers are<br />
today with a 4 to 1 pegging by USA Today in October 2002! The fact that the odds have risen so much<br />
throughout the league is a testament to the new heights of unpredictability resulting from this new age<br />
of parity. On the flipside, the league worst Atlanta Thrashers, were 1,000 to 1 underdogs, whereas<br />
today, the Bluejackets similarly sit at the bottom of the heap with only a 150 to 1 longshot odd given to<br />
them by Vegas---Almost 8 times more likely to win the cup than the lowly Thrashers were who likewise,<br />
were also adjudged to finish 30th. The greatest value in this sublist (not necessarily the best team) can<br />
be found in the Boston Bruins---Double the payout of Pittsburgh, yet certainly not merely half as good!<br />
Though greatness cannot be ignored either, so I’d hedge <strong>and</strong> lay a little coin on both the Bruins AND<br />
Pens!<br />
On the Cusp<br />
(This group is set aside for those who in recent years have found themselves floundering around the Final<br />
Four or finishing the regular season with aplomb, but not quite getting over the necessary hurdles<br />
needed for a deep playoff run.)<br />
New York Rangers 8/1<br />
St. Louis Blues 16/1<br />
San Jose Sharks 20/1<br />
Washington Capitals 25/1<br />
Nashville Predators 25/1<br />
Phoenix Coyotes 40/1<br />
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The Skinny: With the acquisition of Rick Nash, the continual housing of arguably the world’s greatest<br />
goaltender, the dynamism of Marian Gaborik <strong>and</strong> a depth chart on both ends of the ice that has grown<br />
to be its most impressive since the Messier glory days, it’s time for the Blueshirts to take that next leap.<br />
Unfortunately, despite St.Louis’ remarkable season last year, I find it hard to believe Brian Elliott; a welltravelled<br />
journeyman for years will have an easy time replicating the ridiculous numbers he posted last<br />
season. Although, while I expect Jaroslav Halak to fully return to prominence <strong>and</strong> return to the role of<br />
undeniable #1 netminder in town, the Blues still figure to be a middle of the road playoff bound team,<br />
with a one step back, two step forward possibility for 2013-14. With even more high-end young studs<br />
seemingly ready for their debuts, in Ty Rattie & Vladimir Tarasenko, there will undoubtedly be baby<br />
steps needed to integrate them into the top 6 full time.<br />
Meanwhile, the East & West Conference versions of each other, San Jose & Washington, would have<br />
remained in this grouping had I penned this piece each year since the lockout, for all SEVEN of those<br />
seasons! With Semin departed, Mike Green still a shadow of his former self + Anti Niemi & <strong>and</strong> aging<br />
Shark rosters at bay, I still expect both teams to stay put in this category for another season more.<br />
(Believe me, as impartial as I am, a litany of playoff drafts past, with yours truly stating “This will be the<br />
year…” for either the Caps or Teal sweater-ers, while yielding more of the same wasted potential each<br />
time, has not factored into this assessment………….too much)<br />
Fizzling in the Periphery<br />
(This group naturally is created for the up <strong>and</strong> comers of the hockey world!)<br />
Minnesota Wild 18/1<br />
Carolina Hurricanes 22/1<br />
Buffalo Sabres 25/1<br />
Tampa Bay Lightning 28/1<br />
Edmonton Oilers 30/1<br />
Anaheim Ducks 40/1<br />
Dallas Stars 50/1<br />
The Skinny: Many of you may well point out at the Edmonton Oilers & Minnesota Wild as the logical<br />
choices here, <strong>and</strong> you’re absolutely right! This is the glory round of futures betting. You can lay small<br />
units spread over a few different franchises here, while still yielding high payouts if you hit one! Chaching!!<br />
Thus on that note, I’d venture to include the Carolina Hurricanes on this list as well, with Minny<br />
as the team to attribute the heaviest weight to; though probably not for the reasons you think.<br />
Edmonton may yet not be ready for prime time yet, but a playoff appearance may well be in the cards if<br />
Devan Dubnyk is truly ready to take the torch <strong>and</strong> Ryan Whitney is full recovered. The ultra-talented<br />
youngsters are surely ready to step out of the NHL basement.<br />
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Meanwhile, the Hurricanes acquisitions of Jordan Staal <strong>and</strong> Alex<strong>and</strong>er Semin make them<br />
a very interesting team to watch out for this season as well, with a debut for young<br />
blueliner Ryan Murphy also a possibility in front of elite netminder Cam Ward.<br />
There’s no doubt Craig Leipold’s the shock double swoop of Zach Parise <strong>and</strong> Ryan Suter<br />
was the jewel of the 2012 Free Agency period! These 2 dynamic players from either end<br />
of the ice substantially raise the likelihood for future success in the both the short term<br />
<strong>and</strong> long term. Although, these steals made me smirk, as even without the 2 all-stars, Minnesota was<br />
ALREADY my sleeper team for this season as it was. Although prior to July 1st, I’ll admit they were<br />
merely my darkhorse to make the playoffs <strong>and</strong> essentially be this year’s Ottawa Senators. However, post<br />
July 1st, I’ve elevated them as my sleeper to shoot for a home ice advantage this for the time being <strong>and</strong><br />
in 1 to 2 years aiming for the big prize!<br />
I was already sold on the looming rise of the Wild for a few reasons, but<br />
none more influential than the impending arrival of arguably the world’s<br />
best NHL ready prospect, Mikael Granlund. This young stud has got a<br />
near full toolbox at his disposal with plenty of flash <strong>and</strong> speed to boot!<br />
Beyond him though, enter into the fray the world beater duo from twotime<br />
defending QMJHL champion Saint John Sea Dogs, Charlie Coyle <strong>and</strong><br />
Zach Phillips. The experienced gained by these two with the offensive<br />
juggernaut of the CHL in back to back League title runs, <strong>and</strong> for Phillips a<br />
Memorial Cup Title, are invaluable. Not to mention a trio of young blueliners in Dumba, Brodin & Cuma<br />
on the way sure to solidify the rearguard depth core behind Mr Suter in the coming years. Moreover,<br />
the surprise return of Josh Harding as Nick Backstrom’s deputy officer, showcases the depth at all<br />
positions, with a bounceback year from Dany Heatley only enhancing the chances further. Verdict- Think<br />
of Minny when you disperse your budget!<br />
~ Anthony Lancione<br />
34
Quick Hits<br />
by Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry<br />
In this edition of ‘Quick Hits’, you’ll be getting a speedy tidbit of knowledge on every team in the NHL.<br />
This includes sleepers, trends <strong>and</strong> my own predictions.<br />
Ducks – Viktor Fasth has won the Honken Trophy two years in a row for the AIK. Hiller came 24 th in<br />
goalies with over thirty starts for goals against average last season. The moment Hiller falters, Fasth will<br />
be given every opportunity to take the starting gig.<br />
Bruins – Nathan Horton is expected to be healthy for day one of training camp after the doctors cleared<br />
him for contact in July. The Bruins scored 3.54 goals per game with Horton, <strong>and</strong> 2.69 without the former<br />
first-round pick.<br />
Sabres – With the departure of Derek Roy, the Sabres are now without a<br />
number one center going into the 2012-13 season. Ennis was stapled<br />
between Foligno <strong>and</strong> Stafford to end last season where the three ignited<br />
the Sabres offense <strong>and</strong> Hodgson saw shifts next to Thomas Vanek. My<br />
guess is that Steve Ott or Cody Hodgson will get the first crack at playing<br />
top powerplay <strong>and</strong> even strength minutes.<br />
Flames – Not much is known about Czech Roman Cervenka aside from that the Flames expect him to be<br />
in a top-six role <strong>and</strong> that as a teammate of Jaromir Jagr <strong>and</strong> Alex<strong>and</strong>er Frolov, he outpointed them both<br />
easily. Don’t hold your breath for this Calgary Flame.<br />
Hurricanes – The ‘Canes powerplay finished in the bottom ten last season, but have<br />
added both Alex Semin <strong>and</strong> Jordan Staal to their weapon arsenal. The Staal brothers<br />
aren’t expected to be in sync the level of the Sedins’, but there isn’t much else to do in<br />
Thunder Bay, so the duo should click off the bat.<br />
Blackhawks – Viktor Stalberg recorded the most points out of any player to not have<br />
any on the powerplay. The likely extended hiatus of Marian Hossa <strong>and</strong> departure of<br />
Andrew Brunette may force the Hawks brass to toss the former college st<strong>and</strong>out onto<br />
the second unit. 50 points would bring him into the Andrew Ladd, Jiri Hudler, <strong>and</strong><br />
Mikhail Grabovski range.<br />
Avalanche – Could the stitching from ‘C’ to ‘A’ have that great of an impact on Milan Hejduk? The glass<br />
half full says that he’ll have less pressure <strong>and</strong> will return to his mid-fifty point totals. The glass half<br />
empty says that this will give Joe Sacco an easier decision in burying him on the third line.<br />
Blue Jackets – The last time Columbus played a season without Rick Nash, Geoff S<strong>and</strong>erson cracked the<br />
thirty-goal mark while leading the squad with 56 points. We should look for the team leader to put up<br />
similar totals, with a bunch of high energy young scrappy forwards driving the Jackets forward.<br />
35
Stars – Last season, the Stars saw their powerplay rank last overall from fourteenth in the league in the<br />
year prior. The additions of Whitney, Jagr <strong>and</strong> Roy should get them back to the NHL average. Jagr <strong>and</strong><br />
Whitney reached twenty powerplay points last season <strong>and</strong> Roy contributed 12, which would have tied<br />
for the team lead in Dallas.<br />
Red Wings – If Tomas Holmstrom decides to hang up the skates, Johan Franzen should see an infinite<br />
rise in point totals from the extra man. Playing a somewhat similar game to Holmstrom, the Mule will<br />
reach career highs while using his thick frame to upset the opposition shift after shift.<br />
Oilers – The entire hockey world was pressing F5 on their computers on TSN <strong>and</strong> Twitter as Justin<br />
Schultz knocked teams off his list. He’s had all the hype <strong>and</strong> some players with similar numbers in<br />
college were Matt Carle, Alex Goligoski <strong>and</strong> Jordan Leopold. Goligoski hit 20 points in 45 games, Carle<br />
managed 42 points in 77 games <strong>and</strong> Leopold reached a lowly 14 points in 58 games in their respective<br />
rookie years in the NHL. What player’s numbers will he echo in this upcoming year?<br />
Panthers – Florida saw a significant drop in goal totals in the second half of<br />
last season. They averaged 2.24 goals per game in their last 41 matches while<br />
starting the year with 2.85 goals per game in their first 27. It’s difficult to say<br />
which totals they will revert to this upcoming season as Versteeg had just<br />
broken out <strong>and</strong> Fleischmann first line minutes for a full season for the first<br />
time in his career.<br />
Kings – In the past four years, the year following a team’s Stanley Cup championship saw these teams<br />
allow on average 23 more goals than the past season. This does not bode well for Jonathan Quick <strong>and</strong><br />
Jonathan Bernier owners. This would drop Jon Quick’s totals from last year to a .916 save percentage<br />
<strong>and</strong> a 2.28 goals against average.<br />
Wild – Last season, the Minnesota Wild led the NHL in wins <strong>and</strong> points in the month of December. The<br />
wheels soon fell off. The Wild held a 14-23-5 record from January on <strong>and</strong> concluded the year in 12 th in<br />
the Western Conference. This next season they’ll have Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund <strong>and</strong><br />
Zenon Konopka in addition to the old squad. If the first half Wild shows up, could we be in for a season<br />
to remember in Minnesota?<br />
Canadiens – The last year that Montreal had the honour of Andrei Markov running their powerplay,<br />
they had a success rate of 19.3%. This past season, they ranked third last in the league at 14.3%. His<br />
healthy return should have the Montreal faithful buzzing every time they are given the extra man <strong>and</strong><br />
perhaps we’ll see Pacioretty reach a new level after only recording four goals on the powerplay last<br />
season.<br />
Predators – As one of the smallest leaders Canada has ever seen dawn the ‘C’, Ryan Ellis will have to<br />
make the most of his opportunity this year with the recently departed Ryan Suter. The gaping hole on<br />
the top powerplay <strong>and</strong> many even strength minutes to have, Ellis should see at least thirty points in this<br />
next campaign. Roman Josi will be playing minutes alongside Shea Weber which will help him also reach<br />
career highs.<br />
36
Devils – With the Lebron-esque farewell from Zach Parise <strong>and</strong> Petr Sykora yet to be signed, the Devils<br />
are evidently missing the depth they saw last season <strong>and</strong> will be forced to promote one of Zajac,<br />
Henrique or Zubrus to the team’s top powerplay. My money would be on Henrique after his playoff<br />
performance reminiscent of a young Chris Drury.<br />
Isl<strong>and</strong>ers –The Isl<strong>and</strong>ers transferred Bailey onto the wing of Nielsen <strong>and</strong> the two were producing similar<br />
numbers to superstar teammate John Tavares. Frans Nielsen’s vision took off with 13 assists in 18 games<br />
<strong>and</strong> Josh Bailey showed why he was taken ninth overall in 2008 with 18 points in his last 20 clashes.<br />
Rangers – John Tortorella pressed every button he could find on Anton Stralman last year <strong>and</strong> it paid off<br />
unimaginable dividends. Stralman’s defensive game improved tenfold <strong>and</strong> towards the end of the<br />
season, the Swedish defender was able to get back to his offensive ways. He was very noticeable in the<br />
postseason with the man advantage contributing 4 points in 20 games. While these totals may not be<br />
awe-inspiring, expect the New Jersey cut-off to produce beyond belief.<br />
Senators – As I had posted in my weekly Injury Ward article, Latendresse is expected to receive top-six<br />
minutes in Ottawa while playing with the recently signed pivot Kyle Turris. The one-time first round pick<br />
has only skated in 27 games in the past two seasons, but he could make for a true sleeper after scoring<br />
25 goals in 55 games in his last full season with Minnesota.<br />
Flyers – "I'm very happy that the Flyers give me that opportunity to play on a top line with 'G' <strong>and</strong><br />
'Hartsy' but, like I say, you never know what's going to happen in the season," Voracek said during a<br />
media conference call in July. If this plays out like Voracek thinks it will, then we should be considering<br />
him much higher than what Yahoo! has him at 197th.<br />
Coyotes – The ‘Yotes will be operating their 29 th ranked powerplay<br />
unit next season without the trigger man Ray Whitney <strong>and</strong> will likely<br />
replace him with Ekman-Larsson. We’ve all heard about Oliver<br />
Ekman-Larsson, but I just wanted to mention one more time that<br />
he’s going to break out next season.<br />
Penguins – Pascal Dupuis is this century’s Rob Brown. On a line with<br />
Mario Lemieux in the late eighties, Brown put up 115 points while<br />
riding the coattails of Mario’s 199 point year. Following that period, he was dealt to the Whalers where<br />
he would never come close to reaching those totals again. Last year, Pascal Dupuis reached a career high<br />
total of 59 points while finishing the year alongside Sidney Crosby. If Dupuis sees a number of shifts with<br />
Crosby this year, expect another Rob Brown fashioned year from the player who was once traded with a<br />
pick for Alex Bourret.<br />
Blues – It’s almost as if there won’t be enough ice time to go around for all the stars in St. Louis this<br />
season. With the arrival of Russian professional Vladimir Tarasenko, Ken Hitchcock will be able to call<br />
three lines of players who are capable of putting up over sixty points. Come draft day, this will be a<br />
game of blindfolded darts as it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be the go-to line on opening day.<br />
37
Sharks – The San Jose Sharks history book will tell you a story of regular season success followed by<br />
playoff disappointment. Last season, we saw disappointment on both fronts from a fantasy perspective.<br />
Only one Shark reached the 70-point plateau <strong>and</strong> we saw a dramatic fall in Marleau, Clowe’s <strong>and</strong><br />
Pavelski’s point totals. This isn’t due to effort as San Jose finished second in the league in shots, but<br />
thirteenth in goals scored. The one player of those three that I predict to return to his old numbers is<br />
Ryan Clowe. This is simply due to a low shooting percentage <strong>and</strong> a healthy Martin Havlat on the<br />
opposite wing.<br />
Lightning – Which defender has been spending the offseason practicing putting the puck on a tee? That<br />
would be Matt Carle, who will be making his second trip to Tampa Bay. Carle is coming off three straight<br />
35+ point seasons with minimal powerplay time. This could be his coming out party as he will likely be<br />
the one lucky enough to be feeding Stamkos all year long.<br />
Leafs – Matt Frattin will be joining the party in Toronto next season once he recovers fully from a knee<br />
operation. He’s expected to start skating in two weeks <strong>and</strong> regardless of when the season starts, he’ll be<br />
on R<strong>and</strong>y Carlyle’s watch list. With the diminished play of the Leafs second line last season, perhaps a<br />
healthy Frattin could force the Leafs brass into demoting Macarthur or Kulemin to the team’s third line.<br />
Canucks – As long as the Sedin’s keep starting 80% of their<br />
shifts in the offensive zone, Edler can blast a puck <strong>and</strong> Burrows<br />
can grind, expect much of the same from the Canucks this<br />
season. The Sedin’s point totals dropped off significantly in the<br />
second half last year but I won’t bet against both of them<br />
reaching eighty points next year.<br />
Capitals – Adam Oates will be turning the Caps into a high<br />
intensity run <strong>and</strong> gun tempo squad in his coaching debut. This<br />
will probably be the most a coach has even leaned on Ovechkin<br />
with this being the weakest depths the Capitals have seen since the days prior to Ovechkin’s arrival.<br />
This will be the time for the great number eight to put up or shut up.<br />
Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry, author of The Injury Ward, takes a look at any <strong>and</strong> all fantasy impacts on players<br />
sidelined <strong>and</strong> the trickle effect onto their teammates. L<strong>and</strong>ry, originally from St. Catharines, is currently a<br />
fourth-year student at the University of Ottawa studying Economics <strong>and</strong> devotes the majority of his<br />
senses daily to the game of hockey. Br<strong>and</strong>on can be found on Twitter @thel<strong>and</strong>shock <strong>and</strong> will be<br />
tweeting injury updates <strong>and</strong> talking puck all year long.<br />
38
30 NHL Team Reports<br />
Brought to you by the<br />
DobberHockey Community<br />
Featuring work from…<br />
the DobberHockey Team Coverage crew,<br />
DobberHockey writers, <strong>and</strong> well respected<br />
members from the Dobber Sports forums<br />
39
y Eric Daoust<br />
Surprises<br />
• Viktor Fasth – At first glance, it appears that Fasth will be getting<br />
to know the bench this season when considering that starter Jonas<br />
Hiller is coming off of a 73-game campaign. But when looking at<br />
Hiller’s numbers, we see that last season was by far his highest<br />
workload <strong>and</strong> led to the lowest save percentage mark of his<br />
career. There will be more on Hiller later, but Fasth could be in for<br />
around 20 starts this year.<br />
• Kyle Palmieri – The AHL star is ready to make the jump <strong>and</strong> there is a hole on the second line.<br />
With Andrew Cogliano, Devante Smith-Pelley, Matt Beleskey <strong>and</strong> Emerson Etem in the mix,<br />
Palmieri appears to be the best suited to putting up points immediately. He is a shot-first player<br />
who scored 62 goals over the last two seasons in the minors. Consider him a dark horse for the<br />
Calder, especially if he starts hot <strong>and</strong> gains some confidence.<br />
• Sheldon Souray – Out of sight, out of mind. After being banished to the AHL by the Oilers,<br />
Souray returned to the NHL in Dallas last season <strong>and</strong> had 21 points. Some people may forget<br />
that Souray is a two-time 20-goal scorer <strong>and</strong> two-time 50-point scorer. With Visnovsky out of<br />
the mix, Souray has a clear path to the top power play unit. He is getting old <strong>and</strong> is very prone<br />
to injury, but there is no reason to think Souray cannot get back able 30 points.<br />
Disappointments<br />
• Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry – These two guys are tied at the hip in terms of their production.<br />
Both experienced massive drops in production last season. Coincidentally, top offensive<br />
defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky dropped from 68 points two years ago to just 27 last season.<br />
The duo may bounce back, but with Visnovsky traded to the Isl<strong>and</strong>ers, their short-term upside<br />
takes a hit. Even with Cam Fowler maturing <strong>and</strong> Sheldon Souray in the fold, it will not be<br />
enough to push them above the point-a-game mark. Don’t look now, but if the Ducks struggle<br />
again as a team, these two could be traded at the deadline or shipped to another team. Stay<br />
tuned.<br />
• Jonas Hiller – In the three years prior to last season, Hiller<br />
appeared in between 46 <strong>and</strong> 59 games, posting a save<br />
percentage of .918 or better each time. Last season, his .910<br />
is a sign that he was overused. With a new quality backup in<br />
town, Hiller could see his workload reduced to a level that he<br />
is more familiar with. With that in mind, he could be in tough<br />
to even get to 25 wins. However, you should expect to see<br />
his save percentage climb back to his career average.<br />
40
y Tim Graveline<br />
The Big Bad Bruins are still around folks, but they aren’t as bad as they once were. The team is still<br />
tough, but they are such a solid all-round team with one of the best forwards groups depth-wise. They<br />
make take poor penalties with players like Brad March<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Milan Lucic on the team, but those guys<br />
are fan favorites <strong>and</strong> are good players in their own right. Like many teams Peter Chiarelli has kept his<br />
core intact with very little movement. The biggest news has been political <strong>and</strong> that’s because of Tim<br />
Thomas <strong>and</strong> his Facebook account.<br />
Yet, there is much to hope for with this team for this season <strong>and</strong> the future.<br />
Their vets may be a year older, but their youth infusion is what has me excited<br />
about this team moving forward. Tyler Seguin is a year older <strong>and</strong> had a great<br />
sophomore campaign where he more than tripled his rookie season numbers.<br />
Tuukka Rask is their everyday starter <strong>and</strong> has been ready, but needed the<br />
opportunity. I expect great things from him as he has been patiently waiting<br />
for this moment to shine. Hopefully the wear <strong>and</strong> tear of full-time starting<br />
duties does not throw him off his game. The other young guy coming in is<br />
Dougie Hamilton. He is very tall, but I hesitate to say huge, because he needs to fill out his gangly frame<br />
more for me to consider him as such. He has a ton of potential <strong>and</strong> being able to learn under Zdeno<br />
Chara will do wonders for his development. This is exciting, but these three cannot carry the team.<br />
The veterans are the ones that need to be counted on <strong>and</strong><br />
will not disappoint. Zdeno Chara will lead this team as he<br />
has for so long <strong>and</strong> with the continued poise he has shown<br />
so far. Then you have Patrice Bergeron who’s one of the<br />
best centers in the league. He isn’t the guy who puts up the<br />
most points, but they are always respectable <strong>and</strong> he’s so<br />
sound in his own zone that he’s a big contributor to their<br />
many wins. So expect these two guys to lead their team as<br />
usual with the bad boys Brad March<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Milan Lucic. Those guys end up in the sin bin quite often,<br />
but their intensity <strong>and</strong> style of play is so beneficial to their team’s success.<br />
The players to watch are the three young guys I listed above <strong>and</strong> another I saved for this section. I<br />
expect Seguin to continue his improvement <strong>and</strong> work his way to the 70 point mark. I, also, expect Rask<br />
to be a top 10 goaltender. This is due to his skill <strong>and</strong> the defense in front of him. Hamilton is the<br />
wildcard. He will either amaze or see a lot of nights from the press box. Either way, he’s going to learn a<br />
ton this season as he has nothing left to learn in the OHL. The one player I have not mentioned so far is<br />
David Krejci <strong>and</strong> that’s because I wonder about his place on the team. He’s a solid second line center,<br />
but he’s been given first line duties ever since Savard’s career was derailed. I feel like he could be bait at<br />
some point to bring in a center who might be better suited to this team. Chiarelli has provided a great<br />
team as usual <strong>and</strong> there are many more stories to look out for, but this is a team that will surely make<br />
the playoffs <strong>and</strong> could truly contend for Lord Stanley’s Cup.<br />
41
y “Bomm Bastic” Will<br />
This is do-or-die for both Darcy Regier <strong>and</strong> Lindy Ruff. Their year to make their mark. In short, there are<br />
no more excuses remaining in the tank for another lackluster, underachieving season for Ruff’s crew.<br />
Regier has gone out of his way to throw his unconditional support behind his head coach - as if Ruff<br />
goes, so goes Regier.<br />
So what does this mean? Well, fantasy GMs can rest assured that R&R, Inc. will do everything in their<br />
power to create an environment that breeds opportunity for success. And THAT, my dear poolies, is<br />
reason to rejoice. Why? Because an environment such as this breeds confidence, <strong>and</strong> with confidence<br />
comes improved production. What follows is a list of players who will benefit most from this newly<br />
bolstered team, one to avoid, <strong>and</strong> a couple to keep on your radar.<br />
MUST HAVES<br />
• Steve Ott, LW/C<br />
What’s not to like about Ott, if you are a <strong>Roto</strong> GM? This thirty year-old wily veteran comes from Dallas<br />
with enough experience to lead a team in dire need of leadership, <strong>and</strong> enough versatility to earn himself<br />
all the ice time necessary to make fantasy GMs rejoice.<br />
In Dallas, Ott earned his stripes by mixing just the right blend of tenacity with an ability to create scoring<br />
chances. In Buffalo, Ott will be counted on to continue his mean streak while ratcheting up his offensive<br />
production. He is at the forefront of a team desperately trying to change their image from a passive,<br />
post-lockout, emotional lot to that of a gritty s<strong>and</strong>paper, take-no-prisoners crew. Consequently, Ott gets<br />
the biggest bump in value. You’re not picking Ott for his plus/minus, however, he will more than make<br />
up with 46 points, 170 PIMs, 280 Hits, <strong>and</strong> 120 SOG.<br />
He may not play a full 82 games due to the occasional one or two game suspension, but his<br />
contributions to your stat line are well worth any potential short-term absence.<br />
• Tyler Myers, D<br />
Comparisons to Zdneo Chara continue to shadow<br />
the 6’8”, 227lb Myers, <strong>and</strong> they go beyond the<br />
obvious physical similarities. While Myers<br />
experienced a drop-off in offensive productivity in<br />
the 2011-12 season - due in large part to injury <strong>and</strong><br />
a honing of his defensive acumen - fantasy GMs<br />
need to remember that Chara failed break through<br />
the 40-point barrier until his seventh season.<br />
42
Myers is a mere pup at 22yrs, entering his fourth NHL season, <strong>and</strong> the vibes coming out of Pegulaville<br />
could not be more positive for this future defensive linchpin.<br />
Sabres General Manager, Darcy Regier, has recently infused this team with muscle <strong>and</strong> grit, by acquiring<br />
the likes of the aforementioned Ott, enforcer John Scott, veritable battering ram Robyn Regehr, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
ascension of the pugnacious power forward Marcus Foligno. These additions relieve Myers of the<br />
burden of taking on an entire opposing team by himself. In short, he has more than able back-up,<br />
allowing him to play his game to the fullest, without the anxiety of being taken out by some cheap shot<br />
or gang tackle.<br />
Myers is continuing to grow into his large frame, slowly becoming more comfortable with the physical<br />
play as he learns just how strong he truly is, <strong>and</strong> while he will never be Chara-like in terms of overall<br />
PIMs, Myers will acquire more than enough to keep GMs pleased. Look for a significant growth in<br />
production across the board with 35pts, 130 Hits, <strong>and</strong> 85 PIMs. All with room to grow!<br />
• Tyler Ennis, LW/C<br />
“Kid Dyn-O-Mite” has a new bodyguard <strong>and</strong> space-maker in Marcus<br />
Foligno (more on him later), <strong>and</strong> their respective styles complement<br />
one another better than obnoxious neckwear <strong>and</strong> Don Cherry. This<br />
duo is crazy-good on the ice, with Foligno’s ability to continual feed<br />
pucks to his shifty centerman, <strong>and</strong> Ennis’ ability to split defenders<br />
they are a tough t<strong>and</strong>em to reign in.<br />
New found ice-partner aside, Ennis will also see an increase in TOI<br />
thanks to more opportunities on the power play. The increase is largely due to two factors: (1) Ennis’<br />
slick, water bug like moves <strong>and</strong> improved play making ability have earned him the extra time, <strong>and</strong> (2) an<br />
increase in man-advantage opportunities generally, thanks to perennial agitators Ott <strong>and</strong> Patrick Kaleta -<br />
opposing teams will have fits against these two.<br />
The chemistry demonstrated with Foligno, in addition to more frequent four-on-four <strong>and</strong> power play<br />
opportunity will result in an offensive uptick across the board. If 63pts, 220 SOG, 8PPG, <strong>and</strong> a<br />
respectable plus-15 aren’t enough to make fantasy GMs smile then there is no hope for humanity.<br />
• Marcus Foligno, LW<br />
Well, you had to expect this guy would be on the list. Thirteen points in 14 games is good for any player,<br />
but the way in which Foligno accumulated them was nothing short of inspirational. Creating space<br />
around opposing netminders, banging the corners in order to feed the puck to the point-man, taking<br />
opposing players out of their element with his fierce, fearless physical style are all ways in which Foligno<br />
puts himself into the best position to create scoring chances.<br />
43
Foligno will not begin the season on the power play, <strong>and</strong> there is a chance he may go the majority of the<br />
season without any PPTOI at all, so his offensive opportunities will be somewhat limited. But this should<br />
not discourage fantasy GMs, nor give them pause when deciding if Foligno is worthy of a roster spot.<br />
Fear not, poolies! Foligno has been <strong>and</strong> will continue to be counted on to preserve leads, as well as<br />
obtaining leads in the waning moments of games. In other words he will see more than enough ice time<br />
paired with his pal Ennis to earn fantasy GMs much needed points. He chases the puck, he gets the<br />
puck, he feeds the puck - that’s what Foligno does with dogged determination. He is very reliable in that<br />
regard.<br />
Consequently, big hits, blocked shots, PIMs will be paired with 50-point upside, much like a pungent<br />
Gorgonzola with a Belgian lager. What fantasy GM wouldn’t want that?!?<br />
AVOID<br />
• Nathan Gerbe<br />
It pains me to list Gerbe here; the kid has nothing but heart. He<br />
truly deserves respect for the way he brings it on each <strong>and</strong> every<br />
shift. Sabres fans should be proud to have this kid on their team.<br />
Unfortunately, this is fantasy hockey…<strong>and</strong> at a generously listed<br />
5’5” <strong>and</strong> 178lbs, Gerbe’s attitude is writing checks (pun intended)<br />
his body can’t cash. Consequently, he has failed to hit the 70 GP<br />
mark in the previous two season Point being, he gets hurt, <strong>and</strong> if<br />
it weren’t for his toughness he would be hurt even more often (or<br />
perhaps not even in the NHL).<br />
Getting hurt means missing games which translates to being an<br />
unreliable choice for fantasy GMs. Furthermore, his offensive<br />
upside is not high enough to offset the risk of losing him at critical<br />
points throughout the year.<br />
FUTURE WATCH<br />
Brayden McNabb, D - he’s buried on the depth chart for now <strong>and</strong> has to earn his ice time. But once he<br />
does this now 6’4”, 204lb defensemen will ultimately find his way to being paired with Myers as the<br />
team’s top D-unit. When that happens look for plenty of hits, PIMs, solid plus/minus <strong>and</strong> enough offense<br />
to make him a valuable asset for any fantasy GM.<br />
Zemgus Girgensons, C - In three years when this kid is centering the third line with his bruising two-way<br />
game, don’t say I didn’t warn you.<br />
44
y Chad “First Round Pick” Pottruff<br />
Three <strong>Roto</strong> players to watch for from the Calgary Flames (yes, this assumes you are actually wanting to<br />
watch the Flames play hockey) :<br />
Curtis Glencross<br />
This guy should be captain when Iggy gets the Ray Bourque treatment<br />
for that shot at a Cup. Yes, it would go with the mould of Calgary being<br />
more about work than skill, but really how can you not say good things<br />
about this guy? He plays with an edge, gets dirty, <strong>and</strong> as you see by<br />
the new Corsi QoC stat in the Dobber Fantasy Guide, he led the entire<br />
LEAGUE in tough minutes played. You can't ask for more from a guy<br />
than that. Throw in the fact that he scored 26 goals in 67 games last<br />
year (48 points) <strong>and</strong> 62 penalty minutes, the fact he was -13 is<br />
explained by the difficult minutes. This guy can score 30 goals, play<br />
tough <strong>and</strong> be a leader. That's a roto guy you want. I don't believe he<br />
stays out of the top-six for the reasons you will see below.<br />
Jiri Hudler<br />
questioned before about whether he could be a break through force, he came back last year <strong>and</strong> put up<br />
51 points <strong>and</strong> solidified his top-6 status. You don't think they'll do anything they can to showcase him<br />
this first year in Calgary? It always happens, even when Olli Jokinen struggled when first traded here the<br />
Flames brass always put him out there... expect the same with Hudler. He is playing with a bit more of<br />
an edge, as noticed by his jump in PIM last year. He may only get 2nd line PP duty but I would expect<br />
him to get a spot start on the top PP line if they move Tanguay back to the point. He might not score<br />
more than last year, but I'd be shocked if he scored less as he'll get much more PP time.<br />
Alex Tanguay<br />
okay, no he's not a center. No he doesn't hit much either. And penalties are pretty much nonexistent.<br />
So why take him? He's the guy that stirs the drink in Calgary <strong>and</strong> proves that year after<br />
year. Last year was somewhat disappointing, but it was for most of the Flames too. Some more<br />
offensive talent to play with, Cammalleri, Backlund, Hudler, Baertschi, Cervenka, will mean more<br />
points. If he doesn't, the Flames are in bigger trouble than people think they already are.<br />
45
Three players to back away from:<br />
Jarome Iginla<br />
I hate to put him here. He's going to score 35 in a normal season, he's the leader <strong>and</strong> one of the best<br />
guys out there. So why be low on him? Blame it on the chance the season starts later. His slow starts<br />
have killed his seasons previously, <strong>and</strong> any chance of a lockout means a shortened training camp <strong>and</strong><br />
fewer games before a condensed schedule. None of those things work in Iggy's favor. Add to the mix<br />
that Iggy does a ton of barking but rarely any fighting anymore, <strong>and</strong> he becomes a guy who might not be<br />
the best player on his team any more.<br />
Roman Cervenka<br />
Everyone is putting him on a platter to succeed. That's too much to<br />
expect from a guy who's never played an NHL game. To thrust him into<br />
top six minutes <strong>and</strong> expect results is hopeful, but more often than not<br />
those players do not pan out that way. While I'm not saying he'll be<br />
the next Mats Zuccarello, I don't expect him to be as successful as Jagr<br />
was in his return to the NHL from the same team. He'll be ok. It's just<br />
that Flames fans will want much more than that.<br />
Sven Bartschi<br />
Calgary's next big hope is a wonderful kid who makes<br />
people notice he's on the ice. However if the Flames are to<br />
develop him nicely, they'll put him on the 3rd line <strong>and</strong> let<br />
him get used to playing the game, while giving him good PP<br />
time <strong>and</strong> a few shifts per game with Tanguay to really hone<br />
his offensive game. He's a great talent but he's also not the<br />
biggest guy out there. He looks smaller than Eberle on the<br />
ice, <strong>and</strong> that's about the cut-off for small players being<br />
really successful right off the get-go without going through<br />
some growing pains. He'll be good, but wait a year to see it<br />
take shape.<br />
46
y Derek Reese<br />
3UPS<br />
Eric Staal/ Jordan Staal<br />
Tale of the tape: C, Age 27, 6’ 4”, 205lbs/ C, Age 23, 6’ 4”, 220lbs<br />
Brothers Eric <strong>and</strong> Jordan playing on the same team should light a fire in both of them. Both are<br />
Centers but look for Eric to move to the wing so they can both play on the same line together. Eric is<br />
a multi-cat stud <strong>and</strong> Jordan finally has the freedom to explode offensively.<br />
Verdict: Look for Eric to improve on last year <strong>and</strong> a career year for Jordan<br />
Cam Ward<br />
Tale of the tape: G, Age 28, 6’ 1”, 185lbs<br />
Cam Ward is a workhorse; he loves to play a lot of games <strong>and</strong> plays <strong>and</strong> seems to get better the<br />
more he plays. Carolina’s defense wasn’t that great last year but they have an awesome group of<br />
young defensemen in Faulk, McBain <strong>and</strong> Murphy. Whether your league counts saves or save %,<br />
Ward is a beast <strong>and</strong> a must have.<br />
Verdict: Look for Ward to put career high numbers this year<br />
Justin Faulk<br />
Tale of the tape: D, Age 20, 6’ 0”, 205lbs<br />
Justin Faulk made the Hurricanes out of camp as a 19 year old <strong>and</strong> didn’t look out of place on the<br />
ice. That’s impressive considering playing defense is the hardest position to play at the NHL level.<br />
Faulk has the confidence of his coaches as he was put out in all situations. Faulk put pretty decent<br />
numbers in his rookie season despite playing only 66 games.<br />
Verdict: No sophomore slump here <strong>and</strong> look for him to lead Carolina’s defensemen in scoring.<br />
47
3DOWNS<br />
Alex Semin<br />
Tale of the tape: LW, Age 28, 6’ 2”, 209lbs<br />
Alex Semin has a problem, his problem is he just doesn’t care most of the time. Semin is an all-world<br />
talent that when motivated could be one of the best players in the league, just too bad it doesn’t<br />
happen all the time. He will no doubt start the season on the top line but after a couple of bad games<br />
he will be taken off of it.<br />
Verdict: Look for a 7 million dollar 50 point season<br />
Tim Gleason<br />
Tale of the tape: D, Age 20, 6’ 0”, 217lbs<br />
Tim Gleason is very talented, too bad he uses that talent for defense instead of offense <strong>and</strong> he plays<br />
against other teams top players. Gleason doesn’t much chance to play offence as he is always<br />
playing on the penalty kill <strong>and</strong> hardly ever gets any power play time. Gleason is a forgotten member<br />
on the Hurricanes defense as all the talk is going to the youngsters.<br />
Verdict: Only relevant in deep leagues which count hits <strong>and</strong> blocked shots<br />
Jeff Skinner<br />
Tale of the tape: C, Age 20, 5’ 11”, 183lbs<br />
Jeff Skinner is a pure goal scorer <strong>and</strong> he burst on to the scene as an 18 year old winning the Calder<br />
Trophy as the rookie of the year. As crazy as it sounds many believe Skinner reached his peaked<br />
during his rookie season. Skinner missed 16 games last year with a concussion. With Jordan Staal<br />
<strong>and</strong> Alex Semin on board Skinner will play on the 2 nd line <strong>and</strong> his numbers may decline.<br />
Verdict: Look for a 35 goals <strong>and</strong> 65 points<br />
48
y Steve Laidlaw<br />
In 2011-12 the Chicago Blackhawks boasted an offense that scored the 6 th most goals in the entire<br />
league despite a power play that ranked 26 th in efficiency. In other words, the Blackhawks left a ton of<br />
goals on the table. This is especially true when you consider that the Blackhawks boasted the 4 th most<br />
efficient power play in the league just one season earlier. Let’s say the Blackhawks split the difference<br />
this season <strong>and</strong> finish middle of the pack in power play efficiency. What that means is that even if the<br />
Blackhawks even strength scoring comes back to the pack a bit the players seeing the most power play<br />
time should receive a big kick in scoring. As such it becomes important to figure out which Blackhawks<br />
will receive power play time to determine which players are due for their kick <strong>and</strong> conversely which<br />
players are going to falter.<br />
TRENDING UP<br />
Patrick Kane –<br />
Kane has a career average of 25.6 power play points per<br />
season yet only recorded 12 PPP last season. It should come<br />
as no surprise that the scoring phenom should rebound from<br />
what was a career low 66 points last season.<br />
Duncan Keith –<br />
Keith may never come close to matching the career high 69 points he recorded in 2009-10 but he should<br />
improve on last season’s meager 40. Keith led the team in overall ice time as well as power play ice time<br />
by a defensemen <strong>and</strong> it wasn’t close in either case. Should Keith continue to see huge minutes in<br />
Chicago then it st<strong>and</strong>s to reason that by sheer luck alone his numbers will improve.<br />
Jonathan Toews –<br />
Toews is very quietly becoming the new Rick Nash – as in he’s a superstar player with all the talent in<br />
the world who continually teases us with his performance but never actually scores over 80 points even<br />
though we are already giving him credit for it. All he needs to do is submit an 80-game season <strong>and</strong> he is<br />
a guarantee to score over 80 points. Often times a big breakout is just the result of simple luck in the<br />
health department. Consider this a gamble on health.<br />
49
TRENDING DOWN<br />
Andrew Shaw –<br />
Shaw came out of nowhere halfway through last season <strong>and</strong> posted reasonably fantasy worthy numbers<br />
for a player who was on the waiver wire in over 99.9% of leagues just last December. Nearly a year later<br />
everyone expects for him to build on last season’s 23 points in 37 games but I think he goes the other<br />
direction. He is a fine player but he is really a third-liner <strong>and</strong> will likely lose the second unit power play<br />
time he was receiving to a more dynamic player.<br />
Viktor Stalberg –<br />
All signs are pointing in the right direction. In three NHL seasons Stalberg has improved his scoring each<br />
year culminating in the 22-goal, 43-point season he just submitted. The next step is seemingly the 60-<br />
point barrier, which would make him very fantasy friendly. The problem is he has to earn more minutes.<br />
Stalberg skated in just over 14 minutes per game last season, while receiving next to no power play<br />
time. It would be wonderful for Stalberg owners if the Blackhawks found some space for him on even<br />
the second power play unit but the team has a ton of depth on the wings <strong>and</strong> have no real room to<br />
experiment with Stalberg, especially not with more intriguing prospects on the way up.<br />
Corey Crawford –<br />
Crawford stunk last season. Or rather he was numbingly mediocre. Just a season prior, Crawford<br />
submitted a wonderful fantasy line that came seemingly out of nowhere. Which Crawford will show up<br />
for 2012-13? How about none of the above. The Blackhawks are eerily well under the cap for 2012-13<br />
<strong>and</strong> while no team has been exactly willing to press right up against the new cap given the current<br />
situation with the collective bargaining agreement, there still remains a ton of room for the Blackhawks<br />
to resolve their weakest link – goaltending. With Crawford signed for less than $3 million a season <strong>and</strong><br />
only one year left on Emery’s deal the Blackhawks have the flexibility to go after a proven starter. They<br />
also have the prospect depth to swing such a deal. It’s no secret the Blackhawks want to make an<br />
upgrade here <strong>and</strong> that would relegate Crawford to the bench <strong>and</strong> your waiver wire. It’s always a gamble<br />
betting on a trade but the Blackhawks can’t consider themselves Cup contenders until they upgrade<br />
between the pipes.<br />
50
y Marty Kwiaton<br />
The L<strong>and</strong>eskog Effect<br />
To the shock of many, the Colorado Avalanche named Gabriel L<strong>and</strong>eskog team captain for the upcoming<br />
2012-13 NHL season, <strong>and</strong> making him the youngest captain in NHL history. Anyone you talk to never<br />
doubted for a second that when the Avalanche drafted L<strong>and</strong>eskog 2 nd overall in the 2011 NHL Entry<br />
Draft that they were drafting a future team captain, however no one expected it after one pro season.<br />
There were many nights last year, especially in the middle of February, as the team looked to make a<br />
push for a playoff spot that L<strong>and</strong>eskog carried the team on his young shoulders through his<br />
determination, compete <strong>and</strong> on-ice play. When most first year players taper off, not used to the length<br />
<strong>and</strong> grind of the NHL schedule, he seemed to get stronger <strong>and</strong> better leading the Avs with 22 points in<br />
the final 24 games of the regular season. Here’s a quick look at how his captaincy affects other Avs in the<br />
upcoming season:<br />
Milan Hejduk<br />
Hejduk is a very quiet person who’s not a big voice in the locker room, he prefers to lead by example on<br />
the ice. It’s obvious that the pressure of being the captain last season, <strong>and</strong> expected to do things he was<br />
unaccustomed to in the locker room took its toll <strong>and</strong> spilled over onto the ice as he finished up the year<br />
on the 4 th line. His leadership by on ice example couldn’t have lead his team out of a wet paper bag, let<br />
alone into a playoff spot come April. Hejduk did not want to finish off his career captaining a young team<br />
from the 4 th line, instead he wants one more season to prove that he’s still got enough gas left in the<br />
tank for his 12 th 20-goal season in 13 years. With L<strong>and</strong>eskog as captain this enables Hejduk to focus on<br />
putting the puck in the net as the Avalanche have gone five seasons without a 30-goal scorer. He won’t<br />
score 30 this year, but re-gaining chemistry with a re-energized <strong>and</strong> healthy Matt Duchene, <strong>and</strong> lining up<br />
with the playmaking free agent acquisition of PA Parenteau should give Hejduk plenty of opportunities<br />
to bury the puck in the net. Also, his 8.2% shooting is well below his 14.1% career average.<br />
51
Paul Stastny<br />
A lot of people in Colorado thought that Paul Stastny would have been next in line to don the C,<br />
however with his father’s public criticism of the franchise during the Chris Stewart/Erik Johnson trade,<br />
<strong>and</strong> with back-to-back sub 60 point seasons at $6.6 million per year all but sealed his alternate captaincy<br />
fate. Stastny began turning things around last season in the New Year as he ended up bumping his ppg<br />
pace from 0.57 (in 2011) to 0.76 (in 2012) ppg. There appears to be some chemistry between Stastny,<br />
Jones <strong>and</strong> McGinn <strong>and</strong> look for that line to stay together as the Avalanche are more likely to roll three<br />
2 nd lines as opposed to a true first <strong>and</strong> second line. It’s hard to envision Stastny will return to his 70 point<br />
ways with those wingers, however with some chemistry to build on from last season <strong>and</strong> a chip on his<br />
shoulder look for Stastny to get back into the 60’s this season.<br />
Ryan O’Reilly<br />
A lot of people were calling on Ryan O’Reilly to become the next captain of the Colorado Avalanche, or<br />
at the least be an alternate this season. His breakout season last year as two-way force saw him post a<br />
career high 55 points while playing tough minutes against the oppositions top lines night in <strong>and</strong> night<br />
out. Despite his iron man-like work ethic, often being the last one off the practice ice to the point where<br />
he was found to be running the arena stairs in hooded sweatshirt disguise after home games, the fact<br />
remains he is still without a contract <strong>and</strong> remains a RFA. By comparison at the same point in his career, a<br />
20 year old Ryan Kesler scored 58 points in 78 games with the Manitoba Moose of the AHL. Former<br />
Avalanche Kyle Quincey refers to O’Reilly as “one of the best players he’s ever played with <strong>and</strong> by far the<br />
hardest working player he’s ever worked with”.<br />
There is no reason why O’Reilly can’t surpass 60+ points in a season in the near<br />
future as he had 50 points in his first 63 games last year before he slumped <strong>and</strong><br />
hit a wall finishing the year with 5 points in 18 games. Even without the<br />
captaincy, O’Reilly relishes leading his team on the ice, through his play, <strong>and</strong><br />
despite the team retaining Stastny <strong>and</strong> Hejduk as alternates, there is reason to<br />
believe that O’Reilly will also be rewarded for his efforts. L<strong>and</strong>eskog <strong>and</strong> O’Reilly<br />
have quickly become really good friends <strong>and</strong> the duo will only come back<br />
hungrier this upcoming season. Look for last season’s NHL leader in takeaways<br />
(101), to capitalize on more opportunities as he develops offensive consistency<br />
night in <strong>and</strong> night out. As long as he gets a contract, <strong>and</strong> we actually have an<br />
NHL season this year.<br />
52
y Trevor “arctic_rogue” Finlay<br />
Buying, Selling, or St<strong>and</strong>ing Pat with Blue Jackets<br />
Regardless of an impending lockout, many keeper league GMs are always looking for the competitive<br />
edge. There are some opportunities within the Columbus Blue Jackets organization where a GM can<br />
make a shrewd move or two with the potential for fantastic returns. Here is a few guys with reasoning<br />
why you should buy, sell, or st<strong>and</strong> pat.<br />
Steve Mason - When GM Scott Howson acquired Sergei Bobrovsky from the Philadelphia Flyers, it was<br />
blatantly clear that the Steve Mason project in Columbus was over. Not only has he lost the confidence<br />
of his team, he has also spoiled many fantasy seasons with his highly erratic play. This may lead to most<br />
teams dropping or selling him for very little. In many cases, this would be the correct play. However,<br />
keeping him might prove to be beneficial.<br />
Advice: If you can afford a spot on your roster, St<strong>and</strong> Pat with him <strong>and</strong> see what happens. A change of<br />
scenery may do him some good. If you cannot afford the roster spot, flip him for whatever your league’s<br />
market will support.<br />
Br<strong>and</strong>on Dubinsky - Dubinsky saw his point-per-game pact steadily increase, along with his time on ice,<br />
from 2007-08 to 2010-11. Last season, when his point production took a significant hit, it shouldn’t<br />
come as any surprise that his time on ice also took a notable drop. Compounding this, his shooting<br />
percentage dropped from an average of 12% over the previous two seasons to just above 7% last<br />
season. A correction of this drop alone would return 7 goals to his point output. The additions in New<br />
York really hurt his opportunities - something that should see a full turn around in Columbus.<br />
Advice: Aggressively Buy into Mr. Dubinsky while your league mates still have last year’s season fresh in<br />
their head. A return to the 50 point range combined with his penalty output <strong>and</strong> hitting will provide you<br />
with underrated roto gem.<br />
Cam Atkinson - A small player who has had success at every level. With nearly a point per game (0.88)<br />
pace in the AHL under his belt, Atkinson demonstrated last season that he was ready for the big time.<br />
He was only of Columbus’ most reliable players down the stretch last season <strong>and</strong> managed to maintain a<br />
plus rating. Rick Nash’s departure will open opportunity for him, <strong>and</strong> his track record points to his<br />
readiness to accept the challenge. I see him taking a important role on the power play <strong>and</strong> finish the<br />
season with 55 - 60 points.<br />
Advice - Kick some tires with Atkinson’s GM. If the price is reasonable, most certainly Buy. If the GM is<br />
aware of Atkinson’s potential, be sure not to overpay as most smaller players are typically boom or bust.<br />
53
y NoWayOut<br />
I'm going to break things down by goaltending, forwards, <strong>and</strong> defense <strong>and</strong> give you some things I'll be<br />
watching with the Stars <strong>and</strong> a fantasy angle to watch in each area.<br />
Goaltending – The one true bright spot last year. Lehtonen continues to get better, albeit still a BAB, <strong>and</strong><br />
Bachman did a great job stepping in after Raycroft's collapse. Bachman's ability to build on last year is<br />
going to be huge. If he can that's one less worry for the coaching staff.<br />
(G) Fantasy – Don't sleep on Bachman. Given Lehtonen's injury history I think the Stars would be wise to<br />
give 20-25 starts to Bachman. He should build on last year <strong>and</strong> is a necessary h<strong>and</strong>cuff for Lehtonen<br />
owners <strong>and</strong> is worthy of spot starter status in all but the shallowest leagues.<br />
Defense – While goaltending was an asset last year, defense was a liability. Unlike the forwards where<br />
moves were made this offseason the defense hasn't seen any. The question now is can this group step<br />
up their play? When does Joe Nieuwendyk pull the trigger on a trade? Who goes if he does? This will be<br />
the make or break area for the Stars this season.<br />
(D) Fantasy – Philip Larsen is the name to watch. If you’re in a<br />
dynasty league or partial keeper with farm teams he's likely gone.<br />
That said I think he's a good trade target. In deeper one year<br />
leagues he may be worth drafting depending on league setup. In<br />
shallower one year leagues he's one to watch in your free agent<br />
pool if injuries or under-performersforce you to look to the waiver<br />
wire for help. This year likely won't be the breakout but he should<br />
take a big step forward <strong>and</strong> he isn't facing the stiffest competition.<br />
54
Forwards – Lots of shakeup here. Out are fan favorites Ott <strong>and</strong> Ribiero, in are Eakin, Roy, Jagr, <strong>and</strong><br />
Whitney. Jagr <strong>and</strong> Whitney are acknowledged as bridges to the young guns down in Austin. They will<br />
provide needed mentorship plus they both still have some offensive punch left.<br />
Eakin <strong>and</strong> Roy are the bigger question marks among the new faces. How long will Roy be out <strong>and</strong> how<br />
much will he provide when he returns? What did the Stars get in Eakin given that he's still unproven?<br />
There's also going to be some interesting competition when camp starts as there are some young guys<br />
that will push for time. Tomas Vincour is already up in Big D, <strong>and</strong> guys like Reilly Smith <strong>and</strong> Alex Chiasson<br />
will get their chance to stick out of camp.<br />
(F) Fantasy – Brenden Morrow is coming off a disappointing injury plagued<br />
season which saw him put up a mere 26 points. As a result he likely will drop<br />
well down on people lists this season making him a great value on draft day,<br />
especially if your league counts hits. He still has plenty left in the tank <strong>and</strong><br />
will push for a top six spot again. Now that's not to say he's without risk as<br />
he's had injury shortened seasons before, he turns 34 this season, <strong>and</strong> will<br />
have competition for top six minutes.<br />
Still don't sell the Stars captain short as he looks to rebound. Add in the fact<br />
that he was rumored to be on block last season, <strong>and</strong> in spite of Joe<br />
Nieuwendyk's statements that he doesn't intend to move Morrow, he may<br />
find himself showcased for the benefit of potential trading partners. If he<br />
falls on draft day you may well l<strong>and</strong> a steal if you roll the dice on Morrow.<br />
A couple more things to watch this year will be the Stars power play unit, which ranked dead last in the<br />
league in the 2011/2012 season. The addition of Jagr, Whitney, <strong>and</strong> Roy should help add at least some<br />
pop to the power play. Throw in a healthy Morrow <strong>and</strong> things should improve on the man advantage.<br />
Another area to watch is how they h<strong>and</strong>le back-to-back games this year. In particular the second games<br />
of back-to-backs. They were absolutely abysmal posting a 1-13 record in those games. After missing the<br />
eighth <strong>and</strong> final playoff spot by six points, it really points out how much that killed their playoff hopes. It<br />
wasn't the sole reason for their playoff drought reaching four seasons, but you can also see that by just<br />
improving to .500 would have gained them twelve points, double their deficit to the eventual Stanley<br />
Cup Champion Kings.<br />
Well that's my take on the Stars. Hopefully come April we'll be celebrating their return to the Stanley<br />
Cup playoffs where they belong.<br />
55
y Eric Daoust<br />
Surprises<br />
• Gustav Nyquist – The much-hyped prospect is ready for prime time.<br />
Nyquist is going to be in Detroit this season <strong>and</strong> to his delight will see<br />
more minutes than a lot of people think due to the Red Wings lacking in<br />
scoring prowess on both wings. Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary <strong>and</strong> Mikael<br />
Samuelsson are all prone to injury as well. The line combinations change<br />
but Nyquist should be able to push for 20 goals <strong>and</strong> over 40 points.<br />
• Niklas Kronwall – The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom means that the other defensemen will get more<br />
responsibility. The most obvious benefactor is Niklas Kronwall, who will get more opportunities<br />
to produce offensively. His last two seasons saw him get 36 <strong>and</strong> 37 points but many forget that<br />
he had 51 points back in 2008-09. Expect him to get back in the 50-point range.<br />
• Kyle Quincey – Another benefactor of Lidstrom’s retirement is Quincey, who will see his best<br />
opportunity to relive the offensive success he had in his only season in Los Angeles. His<br />
downside is in the 20s but expect him to clear 30 points in Detroit this season.<br />
Disappointments<br />
• Pavel Datsyuk – Many people see Datsyuk as one of the best players in the world.<br />
Unfortunately, in this case it does not translate to fantasy hockey. The last two seasons he<br />
missed time due to injury <strong>and</strong> only produced at a point-per-game pace. He is still an excellent<br />
hockey player, but his days of scoring more than 90 points are likely behind him.<br />
• Jimmy Howard – Lidstrom’s retirement has immense ramifications on the team’s defense, <strong>and</strong><br />
the changes over the summer have resulted in a top-six that is good in terms of puck movement<br />
but probably less effective defensively. While Howard has done tremendous work as the team’s<br />
starting goaltender, it is worth noting that his 2010-11 campaign produced a sub-par .908 save<br />
percentage, meaning that he is not immune to drops in statistics. He remains a workhorse <strong>and</strong><br />
will be excellent in the win column, but may disappoint fantasy owners in save percentage.<br />
• Damien Brunner – Another prospect who has received a lot of<br />
hype this summer, Brunner is in the right organization if he wants to<br />
have long-term success in the NHL. However, many people think he<br />
will produce immediately due to his advanced age of 26. Those people<br />
should be careful because the Red Wings make their prospects earn ice<br />
time. They may favor youngsters like Cory Emmerton, Jan Mursak,<br />
Joakim Andersson <strong>and</strong> Tomas Tatar while Brunner earns his rank in the<br />
organization. Remember that Ville Leino played mostly in Gr<strong>and</strong> Rapids<br />
in his first season in North America.<br />
56
y Axeman33<br />
Disclaimer : I have never really attempted or professed to be a writer but I am certainly passionate about<br />
my fantasy hockey. When I saw the Oilers were available, I quickly jumped on the opportunity.<br />
Top three surprises:<br />
Sam Gagner<br />
Sammy was a RFA at the end of last season, <strong>and</strong> after going back<br />
<strong>and</strong> forth on a longer-term big money deal, both sides agreed on a<br />
one-year $3.2m contract. This will be his third contract with the<br />
Oilers, grabbing a 40% raise but probably not the term Gagner was<br />
looking for. Basically with a one year contract, the Oilers are<br />
telling him they want to see more before paying out big money on<br />
a long term deal <strong>and</strong> I think this is the contract that Sammy does<br />
just that. He will be centring the second line <strong>and</strong> surrounded with<br />
more weapons then he has ever had since joining the Oilers. Sammy has averaged 44 points per season<br />
with the Oilers <strong>and</strong> if he can stay healthy, I believe he will finally surpass the 50 point marker <strong>and</strong> quite<br />
possibly hit 60+. I expect big things for Gagner this year <strong>and</strong> will surprise most GMs with his point<br />
output <strong>and</strong> putting a smile on those GMs who have been patiently waiting for this type of output.<br />
Devan Dubnyk<br />
The Oilers actually did the smart thing with Dubnyk, their<br />
former first round pick from 2004. They let him play a few<br />
years in the AHL before slowly progressing his career in the<br />
NHL. The past three years, they have increased his workload<br />
incrementally from 19 games three years ago, <strong>and</strong> then up to<br />
35 games the following year then getting him into 47 games<br />
last year. In each of those years he has managed to lower his<br />
GA incrementally as well (his first year he held a 3.57GAA, last<br />
year it was lowered to a very respectable 2.67GAA). In the offseason,<br />
they rewarded Dubnyk with a new two-year, $7.0m<br />
contract, all but guaranteeing him the starter position,<br />
backstopping an ever-improving Oilers team. Needless to say, with an increase in pay comes an increase<br />
in expectations. I have no doubts that “Doobie” will once again improve over last year’s numbers. I can<br />
see him getting into 50+ games this year <strong>and</strong> coming close to the 30-win total, if not exceeding it.<br />
57
Jeff Petry<br />
Another RFA that resigned with the Oilers in the off-season, Petry had a year of ups <strong>and</strong> downs last<br />
season to say the least. For the better part of the first half of last year, he seemed like he was swimming<br />
upstream. Caught out of position a lot, afraid to shoot the puck, etc. Around the mid-way point of the<br />
season it was like someone flicked a switch. He started carrying the puck more, showed great speed to<br />
get back if he was caught out of position. He showed he could be an offensive threat by unleashing his<br />
rocket of a shot from the point as well. He even started blocking shots like a trooper. He went from<br />
looking like a 6/7 defenseman to a 3/4. He was playing a lot like Tom Gilbert, only better, which<br />
eventually made Gilbert expendable. Petry will probably never be a 50-point defenseman, but he<br />
should be able to offer up 30+points, plus a ton of peripherals like hits, blocks <strong>and</strong> should also offer<br />
some solid PPP. Most people this year are expecting big things out of Justin Schultz but let’s not forget,<br />
he will be a rookie D with a ton of pressure on him <strong>and</strong> high expectations. There’s a good chance he<br />
slips up a bit this year <strong>and</strong> if that happens to Schultz, don’t be surprised it it’s not Jeff Petry who gets the<br />
tap to step up <strong>and</strong> take the reins.<br />
Top three letdowns:<br />
Ryan Smyth<br />
Captain Canada started out last year strong. Obviously re-energized<br />
after returning to the Copper <strong>and</strong> Blue, he scored at a point per game<br />
pace for the first 26 games then managed to score just 20 points in the<br />
final 56 games. Fizzle fizzle… At 36 years old, <strong>and</strong> youth being the<br />
name of the game in the City of Champions, Smyth has simply become<br />
a leader in the dressing room more then on the score sheet. If fantasy<br />
hockey gave points for leadership, Smyth would rank quite high but it doesn’t. The only thing going for<br />
Smyth is the lack of experienced depth on the left side for the Oilers. Kruger has said he plans on trying<br />
Yakupov on the left side (if that doesn’t tell you Kruger’s thoughts of Smyth I don’t know what does) <strong>and</strong><br />
others. I expect Paajarvi to get a long look at training camp on the left side of the second line. Smyth is<br />
a third liner at best these days, skating with his ole buddy Horcoff. Smyth should be good for 15-20<br />
goals <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> somewhere around 40+ points. Not bad for a third liner, but those are probably<br />
generous expected points for Smyth. On the bright side, he will get his wish <strong>and</strong> get to retire as an Oiler.<br />
Ryan Whitney<br />
Whitney came to Edmonton in early 2010 <strong>and</strong> was expected to anchor the defence for years but he<br />
suffered a season ending ankle injury in December of that same year. Coming into the start of last<br />
season he <strong>and</strong> the Oilers hoped his injuries had healed but that wasn’t the case. His season started late<br />
<strong>and</strong> more injuries during the year hurt his play last season. Out of the gate Renney gave him top<br />
minutes but it was obvious he was struggling <strong>and</strong> not 100%. By the end of the season, his play had<br />
improved but his mobility hadn’t. He has admitted this off-season in an interview I recently read that his<br />
ankle still isn’t 100%. To me, if that ankle still isn’t 100%, then I am not expecting Whitney to be either<br />
58
<strong>and</strong> I am expecting him to struggle once again this year. It will be interesting to see how Kruger uses<br />
Whitney this season. He’s being paid like a top pairing but if the quality of play isn’t there, how long will<br />
Kruger keep giving him top billing ice time. His playing partner last season was Corey Potter but with the<br />
addition of Justin Schultz this year, I am not sure whom Whitney lines up with on a regular basis. I<br />
expect Whitney to slide down the depth chart to a 5/6 defence at best <strong>and</strong> paired up with either Potter<br />
or Peckham. Petry <strong>and</strong> Smid are locks to play together. I can see both Schultz’s sticking together.<br />
A healthy Whitney is a 1/2 defenseman on most NHL teams, but unfortunately he will probably struggle<br />
with this injury the rest of his career so that means he will have to alter his play because of it. I will be<br />
quite surprised if Whitney scores 10 goals this year <strong>and</strong> hits 30 points. He has never been an aggressive<br />
player; he doesn’t hit, doesn’t take a lot of PIM’s <strong>and</strong> is a moderate shot blocker at best. He will offer<br />
some PP points but that’s about as good as it gets from Whitney.<br />
Ales Hemsky<br />
The fact I have this name down for a letdown really shouldn’t surprise<br />
anyone. Personally, I am a big Hemmer fan but to own him in fantasy<br />
hockey is tough. Hemsky has been a point per game player most of his<br />
career so to expect 75+ points over 82 games wouldn’t be a reach.<br />
Unfortunately, Hemsky can’t stay healthy. It’s that simple. As if staying<br />
healthy wasn’t a big enough obstacle, a new one has surfaced for<br />
Hemsky <strong>and</strong> his production <strong>and</strong> that obstacle is now opportunity. It’s an obstacle Hemsky has never had<br />
to deal with before in Edmonton. Where exactly does Hemsky play this year? The right side in<br />
Edmonton is filling up quickly with Eberle <strong>and</strong> Yakupov quite possibly taking their places on the top two<br />
lines. As mentioned earlier in this write up, Yakupov could possibly play the left side on the second line<br />
but he’s always played the right side. Could we see Hemsky on the left side on the second line? He’s<br />
too good to be a third line player. Last season, when healthy, he played less PP time then he ever has<br />
(he averaged 2:08 PP time, normally he’s over three minutes of PP time) mainly due to the wonder kids<br />
getting the time. It’s safe to say this is yet another example of the lack of opportunities being presented<br />
to Hemsky.<br />
In my opinion, there are two things Hemsky needs to have a productive season. The first is obvious he<br />
needs to stay healthy. The second would be a trade. I have no doubt the Oilers have tried to deal him<br />
but their dem<strong>and</strong>s are simply too high for a player making $5M <strong>and</strong> unable to stay on the ice. If he was<br />
able to stay healthy, $5M is a bargain for a player of Hemsky’s ability so I don’t think the contract is the<br />
issue. It’s his health <strong>and</strong> until he can show his ability to stay on the ice, he isn’t going anywhere. If<br />
Hemsky stays in Edmonton for the full season, I expect him to play about 55+ games <strong>and</strong> score about 15<br />
goals <strong>and</strong> chip in 30-35 assists.<br />
So there you have it, my top three surprises/letdowns for the Oilers. As a die-hard Oilers fan, I can only<br />
hope my top three surprises come through <strong>and</strong> that my top three letdowns prove me wrong. I would be<br />
more than happy to eat crow should that happen.<br />
59
y Steve Laidlaw<br />
The Florida Panthers were not supposed to be good last season. Most pundits had them as heavy<br />
favourites to win the first overall selection in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. The Panthers had other ideas.<br />
They brought in a new coach <strong>and</strong> a slew of new players. With a ton of offseason changes they didn’t just<br />
avoid finishing in last place. They avoided the lottery altogether <strong>and</strong> even won their first division title in<br />
franchise history. That they turned their fortunes completely around while simultaneously possessing<br />
the best group of prospects of any team in the league was a coup. What’s interesting about Florida’s<br />
massive year-to-year improvement is that they did so without really scoring or defending all that much<br />
better than they did in 2010-11. In 2011-12 the Panthers scored just six more goals than they did the<br />
previous season <strong>and</strong> similarly allowed just six fewer goals. Where the Panthers improved greatly<br />
however was on the power play where they finished dead last at 13.1% in 2010-11. The Panthers in<br />
2011-12 were the seventh best team in the NHL with the man advantage scoring on 18.5% of all<br />
opportunities. The Panthers are pretty good bet to decline this season based on the fact that they held a<br />
goal differential of minus-19 <strong>and</strong> pushed 25 games (nearly a third of their schedule) to overtime where<br />
they could gain extra points even in the event of a loss. Still, a decline in wins <strong>and</strong> losses should have<br />
little impact on the Panthers’ fantasy value. What bears watching instead will be the impact of the<br />
incoming Panther rookies who may steal prime ice time from established veterans but could also give<br />
the offense the kick in the rear it really needs. So who is due to improve <strong>and</strong> decline heading into next<br />
season? I’m glad you asked.<br />
TRENDING UP:<br />
Dmitri Kulikov – Is this the year Kulikov finally stays healthy?<br />
Through his first three seasons in the NHL, Kulikov has missed<br />
14, 10 <strong>and</strong> 24 games respectively. Despite missing the most<br />
games of any season of his career Kulikov still managed to set<br />
a career high for points with 28 <strong>and</strong> has in fact improved his<br />
point total in each successive NHL season <strong>and</strong> will almost<br />
certainly do so again in 2012-13. He may be injury prone but<br />
there isn’t a better c<strong>and</strong>idate to improve his scoring totals in<br />
the league this season. Kulikov has all the skills necessary <strong>and</strong><br />
while he is still just 21 years old, he has all the experience he<br />
needs to break out this season.<br />
Peter Mueller - Is this the year Mueller finally stays healthy? Wait a minute. I’m sensing a pattern here.<br />
Yes the next upwardly trending c<strong>and</strong>idate is another B<strong>and</strong>Aid Boy <strong>and</strong> quite frankly a gamble. The<br />
upside on Mueller is huge. He has all the skills to supplant Stephen Weiss as the number one center on<br />
the Panthers (at least offensively anyhow). I don’t have much confidence in Mueller’s health but Florida<br />
seems to be a hot destination for reclamation projects (see Fleischmann, Tomas <strong>and</strong> Theodore, Jose for<br />
examples). If Mueller is ever going to succeed as an NHL player going forward the first step must be<br />
taken this season.<br />
60
Kris Versteeg – Last season was looking like his breakout campaign but then the All-Star Game<br />
happened. Before the All-Star Game Versteeg had scored 43 points in 47 games but the well dried up<br />
afterwards as Versteeg scored just 11 points the rest of the way <strong>and</strong> also missed 11 games due to injury.<br />
Versteeg has typically been a healthy player thus far in his career so fewer missed games will help his<br />
cause. More than that Versteeg st<strong>and</strong>s to benefit from some improved luck. Through the season’s first<br />
47 games last year Versteeg scored seven goals <strong>and</strong> eight assists on the power play, combined with just<br />
two goals <strong>and</strong> one assist in the final 24 games. Many of these games were without Kulikov, an important<br />
part of the Panthers’ power play. A healthy Kulikov should help Versteeg maintain his power play<br />
production for the full season. Moreover, Versteeg could simply benefit from a few bounces that allow<br />
him to record a few more assists than he was able to muster during that stretch run.<br />
TRENDING DOWN<br />
Brian Campbell – Campbell is a fairly solid regression c<strong>and</strong>idate for this season. Simply put, the<br />
fluctuation in defenseman scoring is too volatile to depend on any defenseman fully. Yes Campbell is<br />
arguably the most important part of the Panthers’ offense <strong>and</strong> yes he will receive as much prime ice<br />
time <strong>and</strong> as many touches as possible but he still had to get fairly lucky to rack up 49 assists last season.<br />
There is no major reason other than general fluctuation to expect Campbell to regress but consider that<br />
Campbell’s 31 power play points (30 of which were assists) made for a career high. The regression in his<br />
power play production alone could kill some of his value.<br />
Jose Theodore – Roberto Luongo wants to go to Florida, the Canucks want to trade him there <strong>and</strong> the<br />
Panthers like the idea of this trade as well. Sooner or later a deal is going to get done, whether it makes<br />
any sense or not but even if it doesn’t Theodore <strong>and</strong> his owners are still in for a rude awakening. Last<br />
season was Theodore’s best in four seasons <strong>and</strong> even then it wasn’t very good. He only won 22 games,<br />
which I guarantee is fewer than you thought he won, while<br />
his goals against average <strong>and</strong> save percentage were merely<br />
league average. Any regression by the Panthers as a whole<br />
will most certainly reduce Theodore’s value even further.<br />
The fact is that Theodore is highly mediocre <strong>and</strong> there is a<br />
very good chance that his backup is actually the superior<br />
goaltender <strong>and</strong> that doesn’t even mention the fact that the<br />
best goalie prospect in the game is lurking on the Panthers’<br />
AHL affiliate.<br />
Filip Kuba – Last season Kuba got to ride shotgun on Erik Karlsson’s magical breakout season. Kuba does<br />
deserve some credit for being providing the sort of dependable, defensive minded approach that a<br />
player of Karlsson’s ilk needs to be successful but that doesn’t mean he will find himself in as good a<br />
position again this season in Florida. So Kuba can kiss goodbye to the 30+ points <strong>and</strong> plus-26 rating that<br />
Karlsson helped him to last season. There’s always a chance that he fills a similar role next to Campbell<br />
or Kulikov this season but even then it’s a reasonable bet that both Campbell <strong>and</strong> Kulikov will fail to<br />
score as many points as Karlsson did last season on his own.<br />
61
y uofmehockey<br />
Every season the same question is proposed to the Stanley<br />
Cup Champs – Can they repeat? Well history is certainly<br />
against them especially in this salary cap era of perpetual<br />
equality. There has only been one repeat champion in the<br />
past 20 years. This was accomplished by the 1998 Detroit Red<br />
Wings. Detroit also was the last team to make back to back<br />
Stanley Cup appearances when they accomplish this feat in<br />
2009. So while history does not favor a repeat performance,<br />
there are quite a few factors that favor a strong repeat<br />
performance.<br />
First of all, there is normally a lot written about a short off season with a small recovery period. Yet the<br />
Kings have no off-season or long-term injuries from which they are recovering from. They also only<br />
required only 20 playoff games to win their first Stanley Cup Championship. This quick work along with<br />
what appears to be a delayed start to the upcoming season due to the expiring CBA should ensure that<br />
they are all well rested.<br />
The Kings are also bringing back the entire core of players from last season as all UFAs <strong>and</strong> RFAs have<br />
been resigned with the exception of Scott Parse. Thus the team that was finalized after the trade<br />
deadline <strong>and</strong> that gelled under new coach Darryl Sutter will be returning intact. The addition of Mike<br />
Richards <strong>and</strong> Jeff Carter has shown that GM Dean Lombardi is willing to work the trade market when a<br />
need is apparent. Those deals were accomplished without sacrificing elite assets from their farm<br />
organization. The Kings still have high quality prospects (Tyler Toffoli, Andrei Loktionov, Jake Muzzin,<br />
Tanner Pearson) as well as all their picks through 2015 except their 2013 1st rounder, which is part of<br />
the compensation for Jeff Carter. Those prospects might be ready to contribute to the 2012/13 LA Kings<br />
or could be a part of a trade. The Kings currently sit mid pack with 24 players signed <strong>and</strong> just over 7.8<br />
million in cap space on the expiring salary cap picture. How they look exactly once we resume hockey is<br />
up in the air, but they should be in a fairly comfortable situation.<br />
The final <strong>and</strong> perhaps most important reason the Kings are well prepared<br />
to defend their championship lies in the net. Jonathan Quick has proven<br />
himself to be among the league’s elite <strong>and</strong> at 26 years old will be<br />
backstopping the Kings for the long haul. The Kings tight defensive<br />
system <strong>and</strong> Jonathan Bernier complement Quick extremely well <strong>and</strong> will<br />
ensure the Kings meet the challenge well prepared.<br />
62
y Ross Palmer<br />
The Minnesota Wild lead the league in points for a brief period in the first half of last season, due to a<br />
good combination of grit <strong>and</strong> skill throughout their line-up. They had 11 wins last November, a franchise<br />
record, only to be knocked off the top of the league due to injuries. Their talent pool only strengthened<br />
this summer as the Wild made the biggest splashes this offseason, signing Zach Parise <strong>and</strong> Ryan Suter.<br />
GM Chuck Fletcher has done a great job in procuring young talent, which was a large part of why Parise<br />
<strong>and</strong> Suter chose Minnesota as their new club. They also added more grit by signing Zenon Konopka,<br />
whose toughness will surely make him a fan favourite among their followers. The Wild are close to the<br />
salary cap, with just 1.35 million in cap space <strong>and</strong> 23 players signed to their roster, but there are too<br />
positives in the organization to be worried about their cap situation just yet.<br />
Leadership:<br />
the signings of Parise <strong>and</strong> Suter have huge implications to the club, <strong>and</strong> perhaps the most important<br />
aspect is the leadership they bring to the ice <strong>and</strong> locker room. Parise is the former Devils’ captain <strong>and</strong><br />
alternative captain, while Suter is a former Alternative captain of the Predators. With a lot of young <strong>and</strong><br />
impressionable talent in the franchise, to have these two players locked up long term will have a great<br />
flow downstream throughout the organization. They join Mikko Kiovu (C), Dany Heatley (A), <strong>and</strong> Matt<br />
Cullen (A), to boast one of the strongest, if not the strongest leadership cores in the entire league. Coach<br />
Mike Yeo should be a very happy man.<br />
Youth:<br />
Mikael Granlund – Center, shoots left, HIFK Finnish SM-liiga, 20 years old, drafted 9th overall by the<br />
Wild in 2010. Touted as the best player outside of the NHL by some, he should step into the 2nd line<br />
center role when he hits the NHL ice. With a strong top six around him, look for Granlund to challenge<br />
for the rookie lead in scoring, as well as the Calder trophy. Here’s hoping to Setoguchi <strong>and</strong> Bouchard to<br />
have strong seasons, should the Wild decide to roll with the top line of Parise, Kiovu, <strong>and</strong> Heatley.<br />
Charlie Coyle – Center/Right Wing, shoots right, Saint John Sea Dogs QMJHL Boston University, 20 years<br />
old, deafted 28th overall in 2010 by San Jose, acquired in Brett Burns-Devin Setoguchi trade. Expect him<br />
to be the first call up when a forward gets injured. QMJHL teammate of Zach Phillips. They both have the<br />
benefit of being part of a stacked junior team to joining what is appearing to be a very competitive NHL<br />
club. Coyle spent a lot of time playing alongside Huberdeau <strong>and</strong> some even Phillips in junior, as their<br />
lines were tweaked a lot. Some say his talent level is just behind Huberdeau’s.<br />
Jared Spurgeon – Defense, Minnesota Wild, shoots right, 22 years old, drafted 156th overall by the<br />
Isl<strong>and</strong>ers in 2008 <strong>and</strong> went unsigned only to be invited to the Wild’s training camp in 2010, was then<br />
signed to a 3 year entry level contract. Will be the second half of Ryan Suter’s defensive pairing this<br />
upcoming season. 3 goals <strong>and</strong> 20 assists in 70 games last season. Expect these numbers to improve as he<br />
is paired with Suter.<br />
63
Matt Hackett – Goalie, Houston Aeros, AHL, 22 years old, drafted 77th overall in the 3rd round in 2009.<br />
After a stint in Minnesota last season, he looks to be destined for the NHL in due time.<br />
Zack Phillips – Center shoots right Saint John Seadogs, QMJHL. Drafted 28th overall in 2011, in a pick<br />
acquired from the San Jose Sharks in the Brett Burns-Devin Setoguchi trade. Junior teammate of Charlie<br />
Coyle. They both have the benefit of being part of a stacked junior team to joining what is appearing to<br />
be a very competitive NHL club.<br />
Matthew Dumba – Defense shoots right Red Deer Rebels, WHL. Big hitter will be a fan favourite when<br />
he eventually makes the jump to the NHL.<br />
Jason Zucker (right) – Left Wing, University of Denver, shoots<br />
left, 20 years old, 2 assists in 6 games last season for the Wild.<br />
Upcoming Free Agency<br />
Pierre Marc Bouchard <strong>and</strong> Matt Cullen are UFAs after this<br />
season, while Cal Clutterbuck is a RFA after this season. Jared<br />
Spurgeon, Marco Sc<strong>and</strong>ella <strong>and</strong> Justin Falk are RFAs after this<br />
season. Niklas Backstrom is an UFA after this season.<br />
Here’s Hoping:<br />
• Niklas Backstrom stays healthy.<br />
• Josh Harding stays healthy.<br />
• Dany Heatley gets 80 points <strong>and</strong> there is an influx of interview parodies on Youtube.<br />
• The slick PM Bouchard stays healthy. If not, Coyle should be the call-up to the big club.<br />
• Spurgeon gets 40 points.<br />
• Harding <strong>and</strong> Hackett display their talent allowing Backstrom to be traded before he goes UFA.<br />
• They acquire the missing piece needed for an extended playoff run.<br />
• Konopka <strong>and</strong> Cluttebuck become known as the Terrible Two as they keep the competition in<br />
check (ba-dum che).<br />
Editor’s note : Ross’ computer crashed midway through the article. Though, maybe his computer<br />
crashing coincided with the posting of our beloved forum’s 1,000,000 th entry.<br />
64
y Eric Daoust<br />
Surprises<br />
• Brian Gionta – The captain returns after missing most of last<br />
season due to injury. In 31 games, he posted a disappointing 15<br />
points. Looking back, Gionta neared 30 goals <strong>and</strong> 50 points in<br />
each of the prior two seasons. It would not be wise to expect 30<br />
goals once again due to the lack of top-line opportunities<br />
present, but 25 goals <strong>and</strong> 45 points is reasonable.<br />
• Louis Leblanc – This is a bit of a hit-or-miss projection, but if Rene Bourque’s lack of consistent<br />
work ethic l<strong>and</strong>s him into trouble, the team lacks players with true talent to take Bourque’s spot<br />
in the top-six. By the time Bourque falls out of favor, rookie Alex Galchenyuk could already be<br />
back in junior. Enter Leblanc, who may begin the season in Hamilton. His level of energy <strong>and</strong><br />
sound two-way play could give him opportunities sooner rather than later.<br />
• Alexei Emelin – The hard-hitting defenseman surprised many with a very successful rookie<br />
campaign in Montreal. In addition to the physical play, Emelin also brings excellent skating<br />
ability <strong>and</strong> a hard shot from the point. He is certainly capable of more than the seven points he<br />
posted last season. If he can round out his game <strong>and</strong> earn more ice time, there is potential for<br />
him to push his point total over 15 points, which would add to his value in multi-category<br />
leagues where his elite hits total already makes him a decent contributor.<br />
Disappointments<br />
• Alex Galchenyuk – A lot of fans would like to see him in the NHL this year. While it may happen,<br />
the team already has 13 forwards signed to one-way contracts which make the possibility more<br />
unlikely. He missed the vast majority of his draft year due to injury <strong>and</strong> may be better off in<br />
junior where he can dominate. Do not expect more than nine games from Galchenyuk.<br />
• Rene Bourque – He has a lot of talent but tends to disappear for<br />
long stretches. The team paid a good coin to acquire Br<strong>and</strong>on Prust<br />
<strong>and</strong> has some talented players in Galchenyuk <strong>and</strong> Leblanc who are<br />
chomping at the bit. If Bourque falters, the coach will try other<br />
players in his spot. Should someone catch fire, his slumps could<br />
prove costly. His season is already off to a rough start, as he will<br />
miss the first month or two of the season after abdominal surgery.<br />
• Tomas Kaberle – The (hopeful) full-time return of Andrei Markov will do a lot of harm to<br />
Kaberle’s offensive production. Despite his obvious struggles on the ice, Kaberle was still able to<br />
get a respectable 31 points in 72 games. Do not expect a repeat of that total if he is stuck on the<br />
second power-play unit <strong>and</strong> away from the team’s top trio of forwards.<br />
65
y uofmehockey<br />
As everyone who follows hockey is quite aware this has been a significant off-season in projecting the<br />
future direction of the Nashville Predators. While everyone’s major focus has been directed toward the<br />
blue line, the other changes should not be disregarded. Perhaps the most overlooked change is the loss<br />
of Jordan Tootoo <strong>and</strong> the physical presence he brought day in <strong>and</strong> night to the Preds. Now is the time to<br />
take a look <strong>and</strong> see who is likely to fill his role.<br />
First of all who is Jordan Tootoo? Drafted by the Preds in<br />
2001, the 5’9” 199 lb played the better part of eight seasons<br />
for the Preds. Last season he produced a career high 30<br />
points, a team leading PIM (92) <strong>and</strong> the team’s second<br />
highest hits (151) with an average ice time of only 13:09.<br />
Those numbers guaranteed him a decent raise for the<br />
upcoming season <strong>and</strong> ironically pushed him out of cost<br />
conscious Nashville <strong>and</strong> to division rival Detroit where he<br />
signed a three year, 5.7 mil contract. Tootoo has been a fan<br />
favorite in Smashville based upon his energy level, resounding hits <strong>and</strong> willingness to defend his<br />
teammates. Although he will be missed, the Preds have an uncanny knack of coming up with<br />
complementary players to replace departing ones.<br />
C<strong>and</strong>idates who should benefit most by the departure of Tootoo should include foremost Brian Yip <strong>and</strong><br />
Brian McGratten. The 6’ 1” 195 lbs Yip was claimed off waivers this past January <strong>and</strong> in the 25 games he<br />
played for the Preds recorded 37 hits <strong>and</strong> scored 7 points. Over an 82 game season that equates to 121<br />
hits <strong>and</strong> 23 points. With a salary of 0.750 million for next season, Yip easily fits into the Preds’ future<br />
game plan for this season.<br />
McGratten at 6’ 4” 235 lbs is mostly considered a journeyman bruiser who gets limited ice-time. He<br />
doesn’t have much of a history of a scorer but can certainly defend his teammates <strong>and</strong> will make up part<br />
of the PIM shortfall. It is also, however, interesting to note that McGratten was given a one way 0.600<br />
mil contract on July 1st. In addition, McGratten was quoted in a recent Jim Diamond article as “I’ve had<br />
good talks with Barry <strong>and</strong> he wants to play me in some different situations next year, That kind of puts<br />
the onus on me a little bit to be in the best shape I can <strong>and</strong> to be as ready as I can for an opportunity<br />
that could be there. I am looking forward to the challenge <strong>and</strong> hopefully get some more games <strong>and</strong><br />
some different situations than I did last year.”<br />
Other dark horse c<strong>and</strong>idates who could emerge out of<br />
camp include Austin Watson <strong>and</strong> Daniel Bang. Other players<br />
likely to benefit with increased ice time <strong>and</strong> production<br />
include Craig Smith <strong>and</strong> Matt Halischuk.<br />
66
y Gainerama<br />
Up :<br />
David Clarkson<br />
Looks like Clarkson finally came out of the roto closet last season by<br />
posting impressive numbers like 228 SOG, 169 Hits, 138 PIM <strong>and</strong> 46<br />
points to boot. He’s never going to be a high draft pick in any<br />
anybody’s fantasy draft, but he’s going to be underrated for what he<br />
brings if you can find him in the middle to later draft rounds. With the<br />
dearly departed Parise long gone, that top 6 opening is just screaming<br />
his name for another breakout. We could possibly be seeing the<br />
emergence of Hartnell-lite, the age is about right too.<br />
Adam Larsson<br />
This kid survived the trial by fire as a rookie last season <strong>and</strong> posted respectable numbers. There’s no<br />
denying that he’s got the elite talent <strong>and</strong> it’s only a matter of time before he takes the top spot away<br />
from Zidlicky either this year or next. Look for Larsson to improve on his points <strong>and</strong> maybe double it in a<br />
full regular season, <strong>and</strong> his respectable hits <strong>and</strong> blocked shots will also go up in correlation as he is used<br />
more in all situations this year.<br />
Anton Volchenkov<br />
This guy is always going to be gold in leagues that use hits <strong>and</strong> blocked shots for scoring as he will come<br />
close to leading both categories for his team in a full season. Because he’s a defensive defenseman, he<br />
will usually always be available in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts, <strong>and</strong> becomes incredibly<br />
valuable in leagues where you use his skills on defense <strong>and</strong> save your forward rosters for pure scoring<br />
cats. As NJ plays more defensively without Parise, look for even more Volchenkov than normal this<br />
season.<br />
Patrik Elias (down)<br />
It is very likely he will still play with Kovalchuk this season <strong>and</strong> will still put<br />
up very respectable numbers. However after an unexpected season like<br />
last, odds are he’s going to come back down a bit <strong>and</strong> won’t be able to<br />
maintain that type of offense going forward. Elias is a great player but the<br />
fact is that he is going to be almost 37 years old when hockey likely<br />
resumes <strong>and</strong> opposition defenses are going to give him more attention<br />
now that Parise is gone. Old age + less decoys = not good!<br />
67
Down (cont.) :<br />
Adam Henrique<br />
I am a huge fan of Henrique <strong>and</strong> I’m a firm believer he will be a solid player in the<br />
league, however he’s going to have a harder time this year. Any time you end up<br />
losing an elite PPG line mate, it’s probably going to hurt a bit especially when there<br />
isn’t many scoring options to begin with. Look for Henrique to still be Mr. Clutch<br />
when all the chips are on the table but with Parise gone, he may be assigned to play<br />
more of a defensive role than offensive as the team will tighten up as a whole.<br />
Marek Zidlicky<br />
When I see Zidlicky, I see another Pavel Kubina. They both had their glory days but the sad reality is that<br />
Zidlicky is just a temporary b<strong>and</strong> aid until Larsson takes over <strong>and</strong> Zids becomes another forgotten<br />
memory. He seemed to have lost a step or two in quickness that will affect his offense, <strong>and</strong> he’s not the<br />
type to make very many hits so he is kind of limiting <strong>and</strong> on the decline. His age <strong>and</strong> size also makes him<br />
an injury risk at this point in his career.<br />
Gainer’s Final Comments:<br />
I never doubt a Stanley Cup Final’s goalie, but Brodeur is now 40 <strong>and</strong> that cannot not be ignored. He’s<br />
done a great job of hiding his age but it’s only a matter of time now. Further concern is the fact that NJ<br />
has no long term contingency plan to replace him in their pipeline, so I guess they better hope for a<br />
miracle soon. The face of the roster may also change drastically as the following are on contract years<br />
<strong>and</strong> may not be with the team later: Elias, Zajac, Zubrus, Clarkson, Josefson, Henrique, Janssen, <strong>and</strong><br />
Zidlicky. Every year I expect NJ to fail, <strong>and</strong> every year they surprise me. I wouldn’t be surprised if they<br />
did a minor rebuild after this season, <strong>and</strong> it’s about time too.<br />
68
y Gainerama<br />
Up :<br />
Andrew MacDonald<br />
An effective defensive defenseman <strong>and</strong> often under-rated <strong>and</strong> under-used for his offense. I believe<br />
there is a strong possibility of Visnovsky getting injured during the season if not traded out of New York<br />
completely (see Wisniewski), which will allow MacDonald to regain similar numbers to 2 seasons<br />
ago. He’s always good for blocked shots <strong>and</strong> some hits <strong>and</strong> is good value in deep drafting rounds.<br />
Kyle Okposo<br />
Everyone knew he was supposed to be the missing link on the 1 st line 2<br />
seasons ago, now he will finally get his chance to prove his quality. He has<br />
put up reasonable offence in the past 2 seasons as a secondary scorer <strong>and</strong><br />
only lacked opportunity thanks to Parenteau. Okposo comes with lots of<br />
talent <strong>and</strong> high acumen, <strong>and</strong> can develop into the playmaking version of<br />
Moulson on the top line. Garth Snow trusts him enough to lock him down<br />
for 4 more seasons so the offensive potential cannot be ignored. Expect<br />
Parenteau like numbers from him next full season.<br />
Travis Hamonic<br />
The total package on defense in Long Isl<strong>and</strong>, <strong>and</strong> the possible successor to Streit if he is lost to free<br />
agency after this next season. Hamonic is a beast for Hits <strong>and</strong> Blocked Shots <strong>and</strong> has the offensive<br />
potential to run with the PP. He has put up respectable offensive numbers so far but everyone expects<br />
the 40 pt seasons sooner than later from this young stud. He’s a more developed version of Jared<br />
Cowen <strong>and</strong> a good compliment to Streit or Visnovsky.<br />
Josh Bailey (down)<br />
Finishing the final 19 games of the season with 17 pts is<br />
cool, however starting the first 61 games with just 15<br />
pts is not cool. He finished hot but the risk is just too<br />
great in my opinion considering how crappy he was early<br />
on, playing center or not. I hope I’m wrong about him,<br />
but he is extremely expendable with Strome <strong>and</strong><br />
Niederreiter in the system <strong>and</strong> he could be this year’s<br />
version of Blake Comeau.<br />
69
Down (cont.) :<br />
Brad Boyes<br />
It’s no secret that NYI heavily play favorites toward their internally drafted <strong>and</strong> developed<br />
players. Boyes is on the outside looking in will probably be treated more like a contractor than an<br />
employee. I expect him to be moved all over the place <strong>and</strong> finish in the bottom 6 as a forgotten plug<br />
since there’s no real commitment on him yet. Apparently Buffalo thought he was garbage <strong>and</strong> cut him,<br />
just like Connolly.<br />
Evgeni Nabokov<br />
Nabokov is 36 <strong>and</strong> is showing more consistent signs of age <strong>and</strong> injury taking over<br />
his game. The one year contract from Snow tells me the team is not committed<br />
with him <strong>and</strong> they will continue to play musical chairs with their goalie by<br />
committee. I expect continual risk of injury, lost starts, <strong>and</strong> even trade for this<br />
poor unfortunate soul.<br />
Gainer’s final comments:<br />
By now, most of you are smart enough to underst<strong>and</strong> that there is a definite “Buyer Beware” warning<br />
with all things associated with the Isl<strong>and</strong>ers. I feel this is a team that is content with mediocrity <strong>and</strong> has<br />
no intentions of competing with the better teams in the league. Their lack of commitment for bringing<br />
in veteran leadership & mentoring for their youngsters, <strong>and</strong> absolutely no attempts to invest in quality<br />
long term goaltending from any source basically shows me that Garth Snow <strong>and</strong> Charles Wang just don’t<br />
give a damn about winning. There is a black cloud over Long Isl<strong>and</strong>, Derek did say that “no legitimate<br />
superstar in their prime would ever be stupid enough to sign with the Isl<strong>and</strong>ers”. On that note, it’s<br />
going to be a lonely road for Tavares.<br />
70
y Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry<br />
Top Three Surprises<br />
1. Brian Boyle – The Boston College graduate will see an upgrade in line mates, likely seeing shifts<br />
with Pyatt <strong>and</strong> Hagelin this year compared to seeing the majority of shifts the past few years<br />
with Fedotenko <strong>and</strong> Prust. He is coming off a tremendous postseason <strong>and</strong> end of the year run.<br />
Boyle was the MVP of the Senators series <strong>and</strong> finished the regular season with five goals in his<br />
last nine games.<br />
2. Chris Kreider – Another former Boston College Eagle will have the opportunity to start the year<br />
with top-six minutes next to the talent of Brad Richards, Rick Nash, Ryan Callahan <strong>and</strong> Derek<br />
Stepan, with Marian Gaborik being on the shelf. The Rangers rookie uses his blazing speed <strong>and</strong> a<br />
quick release to defeat the opposition on most plays, which will play as the perfect complement<br />
to Brad Richards creative playmaking.<br />
3. Marc Staal – After returning halfway through the season last year, Marc’s offensive<br />
totals saw a significant dip, as did his play in the defensive end. After suffering a<br />
concussion, a player is unable to commit to a strict cardio <strong>and</strong> workout plan, which<br />
was likely a great reason for Staal’s off-year. However, in the last month of the<br />
season <strong>and</strong> into the playoffs, the Thunder Bay defender played smart hockey in his<br />
own end <strong>and</strong> put up six points in 20 postseason games. Not overwhelming totals, but<br />
his increase in confidence was evident each <strong>and</strong> every time he touched the puck.<br />
Top Three Letdowns<br />
1. Carl Hagelin – Looking as if he was shot out of a cannon each time he skates down the wing, the<br />
speedy Swede saw plenty of time in the Rangers top six last season while virtually coming out of<br />
nowhere. He showed a sharp mentality, years beyond his age, making him an easy play in any<br />
role. Because of this, Hagelin will likely see the majority of minutes in an energy role with the<br />
abundance of offensive talent in New York. The addition of Nash <strong>and</strong> emergence of Kreider will<br />
make it very difficult for the sophomore to repeat his rookie totals.<br />
2. Marian Gaborik – Coming off his second forty goal campaign in New York in three years, Gaborik<br />
suffered a shoulder injury late in the playoffs <strong>and</strong> will need at least until December to return. As<br />
a player who loves to snap off wristers from all over the ice, it may be difficult to squeak through<br />
any goaltenders pads with a loss in velocity for at least the first few months of his return.<br />
Although, his powerplay totals should see a slight rise when he returns, due to the Rangers<br />
having a second source of firing the rubber in Rick Nash.<br />
3. Martin Biron – Not much should be expected from a backup goaltender, but Biron’s totals last<br />
season were above <strong>and</strong> beyond anyone’s expectations. The former Buffalo Sabres starter came<br />
off to a scorching start with seven wins in his first eight starts, but finished the year off with<br />
some troubling totals. Biron’s last nine starts accumulated a 3-4-2 record, .874 save percentage<br />
<strong>and</strong> a 3.22 goals against average.<br />
71
y Evan Hotham<br />
The 2011-2012 Ottawa Senators season was one filled with many surprises. Virtually every player on the<br />
roster exceeded the expectations set out for him before the campaign began. With basically no player<br />
underachieving last year, the odds suggest that there will surely be some letdowns in this year’s<br />
campaign. Even then, there will always be players who overachieve, which is always a plus for fantasy<br />
managers looking for value picks.<br />
In this piece, I hope to predict which players may surpass expectations during 2012-2013, <strong>and</strong> which<br />
players may leave some fantasy managers with a sour taste in their mouth at season’s end.<br />
Surprises<br />
Jared Cowen - D<br />
While Cowen had a great rookie year playing in a defensive role<br />
next to Sergei Gonchar, I would expect him to have a larger impact<br />
offensively this season. With the departure of Filip Kuba, Cowen has<br />
the potential to play with Norris winner Erik Karlsson on the first<br />
line or on the PP. If there is a shortened season, Cowen will get<br />
huge minutes down in Binghamton to further develop his game <strong>and</strong><br />
dominate offensively. I do not think a 30 point season is out of the<br />
question if he gets a boost in offensive minutes.<br />
Mika Zibanejad - LW/RW<br />
It may not seem like a surprise to expect the sixth overall pick from 2011 have a nice rookie season, but I<br />
feel he is being overlooked due to the huge seasons enjoyed by fellow prospects Jakob Silfverberg <strong>and</strong><br />
Mark Stone. With his combination of size, speed, <strong>and</strong> NHL-ready shot, I would not be surprised to see<br />
him post 15 goals <strong>and</strong> 15-20 assists in his rookie campaign if he makes the team out of camp. In<br />
addition, Zibanejad would contribute very nicely to the shots -- he averaged 6 shots per game at the<br />
WJC <strong>and</strong> loves to shoot from anywhere on the ice -- <strong>and</strong> hits categories.<br />
Zack Smith - C<br />
Recently signed to a four-year contract extension, Smith is virtually locked into the #3 center position<br />
<strong>and</strong> should see an increase from the 26 points he put up last season. During the first three months of<br />
2011-2012, Smith was producing at a clip of 0.5 points per game before hitting a wall offensively in the<br />
second half. This was likely due to the fact that he played over 100 games combined in the NHL <strong>and</strong> AHL<br />
in 2010-2011. With a longer off-season, Smith should become more consistent offensively, especially if<br />
he gets some better wingers to play with. I see Smith as having 40 point upside one day, which may<br />
come as early as this season if all goes better than expected.<br />
72
Letdowns<br />
Colin Greening - LW<br />
The big Newfie had a solid rookie season in 2011-2012, putting up 37 points while playing on a line with<br />
Jason Spezza <strong>and</strong> Milan Michalek. With top prospects Zibanejad, Silfverberg, <strong>and</strong> Mark Stone all on the<br />
cusp of making the roster, Greening’s spot on the Sens’ top line is most likely short-lived. Greening will<br />
likely play on the third line with Zack Smith <strong>and</strong> one of Chris Neil or Erik Condra this season, which<br />
should see his point totals stagnate or drop from the previous campaign. He’ll still contribute in the hits<br />
category, however.<br />
Jakob Silfverberg - LW/RW<br />
The 2011-2012 Swedish Elite League regular season <strong>and</strong> playoff MVP will surely make the team out of<br />
camp, however some people have put unfair expectations on the 21-year old Swede for his rookie<br />
season. Yes, he may play with Jason Spezza right out of the gate <strong>and</strong> his shot <strong>and</strong> intelligence make him<br />
a prime c<strong>and</strong>idate to become a very solid offensive player down the road, however the transition to NHL<br />
hockey will not be without its hiccups, especially for a player who isn’t very physical <strong>and</strong> has gotten used<br />
to the slower-paced, less intense br<strong>and</strong> of hockey in the SEL for the last four years. I expect Silfverberg<br />
to have a good rookie campaign but anything above 40 points would be gravy.<br />
Erik Karlsson - D<br />
While I do not see the reigning Norris trophy regressing any<br />
time soon, I think the 78 points he put up in 2011-2012 will<br />
be very hard to duplicate. Last season, it was basically the<br />
Karlsson-Spezza show at even strength <strong>and</strong> on the power<br />
play. This year, with the incoming crop of rookies <strong>and</strong> the<br />
expected improvement of overall team play, I think the<br />
points will come from a wider range of players, resulting in<br />
less points for Karlsson overall as the team will not have to<br />
rely on him for all their offense. I would expect him to post<br />
60-65 points or so, which may be considered a letdown for<br />
some fantasy managers.<br />
73
y Kevin Schulmeister<br />
RISERS<br />
Jakub Voracek<br />
This may be the easy one as he has been given his largest opportunity simple by Jagr moving on. He now<br />
gets first crack to produce alongside Giroux <strong>and</strong> there’s no reason to believe that he won’t roll with it as<br />
he already started to improve his numbers. Last season, he had a career high in goals <strong>and</strong> shots on goal<br />
to go along with 49 points. Voracek then followed it up by posting 10 points in 11 playoff games, good<br />
for third on the team. Five could be Jakub’s magic number as he will be entering in his fifth year <strong>and</strong> is<br />
ready to break out big time. Bank on 60 points, but don’t be surprised to see 70.<br />
Luke Schenn<br />
With back to back 22 point seasons, Schenn is another c<strong>and</strong>idate for<br />
a breakout season. He will probably be lined up with Timonen or<br />
Coburn on the second unit. While he is a defensive player first, he<br />
makes a solid first pass <strong>and</strong> has a good shot. He is going to be relied<br />
upon to contribute, especially while Meszaros is out. Fact is, Philly<br />
traded a big piece in JVR to get him <strong>and</strong> it is no secret that they are<br />
looking for another defenseman. Until that happens, Schenn can<br />
<strong>and</strong> will be a large part of this team. He may also be a bit happier<br />
playing on the same team as his brother but I doubt that makes<br />
much of a difference. I’d think 35 points is not out of reach for<br />
Schenn, along with good peripherals for those in roto leagues.<br />
Ilya Bryzgalov<br />
Bryzgalov really didn’t have that bad of a season. The media blew it out of proportion, <strong>and</strong> obviously his<br />
playoff stint was a mess. His GAA was actually a bit better than his career average, <strong>and</strong> 33 wins to boot.<br />
He played fewer games than he was accustomed to <strong>and</strong> getting a few more starts should translate to<br />
more wins. Philadelphia is still a very strong team <strong>and</strong> even on off nights, Brizzy should be able to steal<br />
some wins. Note that Bryzgalov faced about four fewer shots per game than he is used to, <strong>and</strong> that<br />
doesn’t always make it easier. Sometimes goalies that face a ton of rubber face the same number of<br />
quality shots against <strong>and</strong> the extra shots improve save percentage. That being said, Philly has some work<br />
to do on the defensive end <strong>and</strong> until Meszaros comes back, Bryzgalov will probably be facing some<br />
higher quality shots.<br />
Bryzgalov may slip in a lot of drafts this fall as his name took a beating last season. Philly fans wanted,<br />
<strong>and</strong> thought they had, a stud goalie. He should now be acclimated to the fans <strong>and</strong> media, <strong>and</strong> just worry<br />
about stopping the puck. The HBO series last year was a major distraction for him. I’d expect his save<br />
percentage to be his biggest increase <strong>and</strong> also get a few more wins.<br />
74
FALLERS<br />
Danny Briere<br />
He had his lowest point total since 2001, other than his career low<br />
29 game season in 2009. The success of a few younger guys could<br />
start to nipp at Briere’s ice time, but don’t think he will be<br />
demoted to anything less than the second line. The 35 year old<br />
might not fall that many points from last year, but when a guy has<br />
averaged .915 points per game since the lockout, you tend to<br />
expect a bit more than 49 points. Draft him like a 45-50 point guy<br />
<strong>and</strong> you shouldn’t be disappointed. If your league counts playoffs<br />
then disregard this paragraph as Briere has shown time <strong>and</strong> time<br />
again he is a beast in the post season.<br />
Matt Read<br />
Read was an undrafted player that had a really impressive rookie season. He led all rookies in goals <strong>and</strong><br />
was top four in points. Before the season started, a lot of poolies didn’t even know who he was. While<br />
he will probably be penciled in on the third line with guys like Couturier <strong>and</strong> Fedotenko, the emergence<br />
of some of the young guys will hurt his chances of moving up. He scored 18 points in 28 games when<br />
Schenn wasn’t in the lineup <strong>and</strong> then slowed to 29 points in his other 51 games. This could easily be<br />
coincidence, but it seems to me that Schenn will be moving ahead faster than Read. Read was a 25 year<br />
old rookie as he was older when he took the college route to the NHL, so he really was a man competing<br />
against boys in the rookie race. He should have been much more NHL ready than a young kid, but that<br />
doesn’t mean he has the upside as some of the 18 <strong>and</strong> 19 year olds he was competing with. He had a<br />
15.5 shooting percentage which was the highest of any rookie in the top 10. That also seems a bit high<br />
to me. I’d guess a real decline in points this year as other prospects steel more of his opportunities.<br />
Bottom line, I would put him at 35 to 40 points.<br />
Scott Hartnell<br />
Hartnell had a career season with 37 goals <strong>and</strong> 30 assists for 67<br />
points which was second on his team. In 2008-09 he had 30 <strong>and</strong><br />
30 for 60 points, so he is capable of putting up good numbers,<br />
but his 15.9 shooting percentage may not be sustainable. His<br />
career average is 11.3. A lot of that might have to do with<br />
playing alongside Giroux <strong>and</strong> an underrated passer in Jaromir<br />
Jagr. He again will ride shotgun with Giroux, but I doubt he<br />
replicate that 15 percent shooting percentage. Hartnell may<br />
not drop too many points but his goals total will go down. Don’t<br />
expect 67 points again, I’d shoot for 55-60 points where he has<br />
averaged in his last four campaigns.<br />
75
y Keith Veronese<br />
In this roundup of Phoenix’s fantasy capabilities during the 2012-2013 season we will talk about players<br />
you hate <strong>and</strong> old girlfriends. It will all make sense, I promise. Phoenix is an enigma – the offseason has<br />
been filled with rumors of a move to Quebec <strong>and</strong> dispersal drafts. On the ice, the Coyotes are an<br />
offensively liability, with the loss of Whitney <strong>and</strong> (possibly) Doan creating an offensive vacuum. Let’s<br />
look at a couple guys who might step up, as well as a few to avoid.<br />
Three Up :<br />
Radim Vrbata<br />
Vrbata will need to play a bigger role in the offense with the<br />
departure of Ray Whitney <strong>and</strong> the possible absence of Shane Doan.<br />
He will be shooting the puck more, <strong>and</strong> that’s excellent, as he had a<br />
15% shooting percentage last year on 232 shots in a season that led<br />
to 35 goals. Vrbata often falls in leagues as many GMs think he’s a,<br />
letting him slide into the late rounds of your draft.<br />
Keith Y<strong>and</strong>le<br />
Will he play for Phoenix this year? Who knows. The Y<strong>and</strong>le to Detroit rumors have trickled in all<br />
summer, but a change of scenery will only help his stats. This formerly coveted fantasy d-man is at a<br />
relative low right now <strong>and</strong> often overshadowed in dynasty leagues by teammate Oliver Ekman-Larsson,<br />
so grab Y<strong>and</strong>le on the cheap if you get the opportunity. He’ll put up 45 points <strong>and</strong> comm<strong>and</strong> a<br />
powerplay in whatever sweater he puts on next season.<br />
Antoine Vermette<br />
Antoine, how I love thee, but for all the wrong ways. If you are in a league that counts face-off wins,<br />
Vermette is the sh*t. Antoine put up 645 face-off wins last year <strong>and</strong> he qualifies as a left winger in many<br />
leagues. Vermette also hits (120+ the past two seasons) <strong>and</strong> puts up 40 points. Phoenix will be looking<br />
for someone to fill in a scoring void, making Vermette one hell of a sleeper that will go late in your draft<br />
or could be snagged off the waiver wire in most leagues.<br />
76
Three Down :<br />
Mike Smith<br />
Remember when he was the backup goalie of the future in Dallas?<br />
The average Joe in Tampa? Mike Smith had a stellar season last year,<br />
but you can bet league officials will crack down on his rough play <strong>and</strong><br />
opposing scorers will begin to figure out his weaknesses. In many<br />
keeper <strong>and</strong> one-year drafts, Smith is going higher than established<br />
veterans like Ryan Miller, Jimmy Howard, or Carey Price. Don’t throw<br />
too much confidence in one good season. If you are a GM that<br />
owned Smith as an up <strong>and</strong> comer, don’t turn him into the girlfriend<br />
that you dumped, but now want back.<br />
Oliver Ekman-Larsson<br />
Don’t get me wrong – I like OEL. I just think he will be extremely overvalued after his playoff<br />
success. The hits he puts up (150+ this year) are nice, but there are a plethora of other defensemen that<br />
put up similar stats without the premium <strong>and</strong> pedigree.<br />
Shane Doan<br />
If he comes back to Phoenix, his numbers will continue to diminish over the next three seasons. Doan is<br />
a much better fantasy pick if he l<strong>and</strong>s in Vancouver, but there is too much liability inherent in an aging,<br />
physical player. I see Doan putting up Phoenix-like numbers in NYR, Nashville, <strong>and</strong> Buffalo (other teams<br />
in the Doan sweepstakes), so steer clear if he signs with them as well.<br />
77
y Derek Reese<br />
3UPS :<br />
1. James Neal<br />
Tale of the tape: LW, Age 25, 6’ 2”, 208lbs<br />
James Neal is the real deal. Coming off the<br />
magical 4 th year breakout, Neal showed all of us<br />
why he will be a fantasy hockey stud for a long<br />
time setting career highs in almost every<br />
statistical category. Neal has a permanent<br />
position playing alongside NHL scoring leader<br />
Evgeni Malkin, so you know his production will<br />
not be going down anytime soon.<br />
Verdict: Expect another 40 goal season<br />
2. Kris Letang<br />
Tale of the tape: D, Age 25, 6’ 0”, 180lbs<br />
Kris Letang battled injuries for most of last year including a concussion, but Letang is healthy<br />
now. Letang is an offensive minded defensemen playing on a high scoring team <strong>and</strong> is the power<br />
play QB that includes the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin <strong>and</strong> James Neal. Look for Letang<br />
to put up career highs all across the board.<br />
Verdict: Could lead the league in points by a defenseman.<br />
3. Sidney Crosby<br />
Tale of the tape: C, Age 25, 5’ 11”, 200lbs<br />
Sidney Crosby is arguably the best player in the NHL unfortunately for him he has battled a<br />
concussion <strong>and</strong> a mis- diagnosed neck injury the last two years. That is all behind him now <strong>and</strong><br />
look for Crosby to explode this year. Crosby, a Hart Trophy winner can do it all by scoring goals<br />
or setting up team-mates. Very good on faceoffs.<br />
Verdict: Will finish in the top 3 in league scoring<br />
78
3DOWNS<br />
1. Marc-Andre Fleury<br />
Tale of the tape: G, Age 27, 6’ 2”, 180lbs<br />
Marc-Andre Fleury had a career high 42 wins last year<br />
but many feel it was his worst season in the NHL <strong>and</strong><br />
his horrible playoff performance added to argument.<br />
The Penguins seemed to have lost all faith in Fleury as<br />
they brought in Tomas Vokoun as insurance in-case<br />
Fleury falters again. Look for Fleury to play fewer<br />
games to try to keep him fresh.<br />
Verdict: Average goalie that plays on a great team<br />
2. Pascal Dupuis<br />
Tale of the tape: RW, Age 33, 6’ 1”, 205lbs<br />
Pascal Dupuis erupted last year with a career highs in Goals, Assists , Points +/-, SOG <strong>and</strong> GWG<br />
all while being at ripe old age of 32. There is no doubt that Dupuis probably helped the few<br />
GM’s who had him on their rosters win, but having a career year at 32 is very rare <strong>and</strong> repeating<br />
it is even more rare.<br />
Verdict: Back to a season of fantasy irrelevant stats<br />
3. Matt Cooke<br />
Tale of the tape: LW, Age 33, 5’ 11”, 205lbs<br />
Matt Cooke is one of the most hated players in NHL history. After his last suspension Cooke<br />
decided that it was time for a change in style of play. Cooke put up a career high in goals <strong>and</strong><br />
SOG but unfortunately due to this style in play his PIM <strong>and</strong> hits went down, which were the only<br />
fantasy relevant stats that he contributes to.<br />
Verdict: At 33 look for all his stats to take a hit across the board<br />
79
y Tim Graveline<br />
Murky Waters <strong>and</strong> Feeding Grounds<br />
The San Jose Sharks are in a very weird place. This is a complete understatement considering<br />
the lack of activity that has taken place this off-season. The owners <strong>and</strong> Doug Wilson spoke about<br />
change in the air. So far, they have signed Brad Stuart, which was rumored <strong>and</strong> expected for quite some<br />
time <strong>and</strong> they signed Adam Burish for grit <strong>and</strong> depth. Nothing big has happened like the fans expected<br />
after the owners vowed to be aggressive. The fans are confused <strong>and</strong> left wanting so much more. Murky<br />
waters, indeed.<br />
Fans have been clamoring for the trade of Patrick Marleau. He has been the scapegoat <strong>and</strong> I<br />
admit that I am in that camp. He is an excellent player, but there really isn’t a great place for him. He<br />
doesn’t fit well with Thornton, <strong>and</strong> he has had chemistry with Pavelski <strong>and</strong> Clowe, but those two have<br />
better chemistry with Martin Havlat (when he’s healthy). So it makes sense to many that he’d be traded<br />
for depth, draft picks (which the team sorely needs), or a different top 6 forward who would mesh<br />
better with the rest of the team or bring more grit to the top six. Marleau <strong>and</strong> the rest of the Sharks are<br />
entering feeding grounds this season. How this team starts <strong>and</strong> enters December will dictate the fate of<br />
the core.<br />
So what to expect this year then as long as there is not a<br />
full lockout? A couple things. The Sharks are probably a better<br />
team than they were. They have more depth behind the<br />
blueline. They have some more flexibility to make some trades<br />
due to that. Do not be surprised to see this team start off with a<br />
bang. Everyone is healthy at the start this season <strong>and</strong> guys like<br />
Couture <strong>and</strong> Pavelski want to win. This team will either start a<br />
fire sale in February or be on the hunt for another playoff berth.<br />
The top players to watch this season are Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau, <strong>and</strong> Dan Boyle. I think<br />
Couture will take another step in the right direction. Expect him to hit 70 points this season. Marleau is<br />
either going to have the quietest 75 point season or is going to be traded. Dan Boyle has been in trade<br />
rumors this summer <strong>and</strong> I even feel like he is the most lucrative piece they have that they might be<br />
willing to trade. He is getting old, but the guy can lead <strong>and</strong> still is a number one defenseman. They have<br />
Burns to take over <strong>and</strong> if he does this year, expect Boyle’s names to circulate the rumourmonger blogs<br />
all season long. This truly is a pivotal year for the Sharks as their core contracts are ending soon. Will<br />
the Sharks begin an overhaul this season or make one last push for that elusive Cup <strong>and</strong> be the third <strong>and</strong><br />
final Californian team to win the cup in the last decade?<br />
80
y Keith Veronese<br />
As I write this, I am falling into mild depression as I don't own David Backes in any leagues. His 200-plus<br />
hits while putting up 100-plus PIMs <strong>and</strong> 50-60 points year in <strong>and</strong> year out are what he is known for, but<br />
his 200-plus shots are nice too. The 658 faceoff wins from someone who has eligibility at RW is an<br />
absolute plus, as well as the smattering of shorth<strong>and</strong>ed points <strong>and</strong> a 20 power play points he will put up<br />
over the year. Backes’ goal totals have fluctuated greatly over the past three seasons - I'd expect him<br />
closer to the 20-25 goal level this year than the 30-35 due to his shooting percentage. If you’ve got a<br />
chance to draft or trade for Backes at the right price in a <strong>Roto</strong> league, do it. Backes is the Mike Trout of<br />
Fantasy Hockey - every time he plays he will do helps out your fantasy team. Or is Mike Trout the David<br />
Backes of Fantasy Baseball? Hmm...<br />
Man Up<br />
1. David Perron<br />
Perron could go late in your league due to his injury history, but the 24 year-old almost led the Blues in<br />
points last season despite playing in only 57 games. Perron's playing style will not net you significant<br />
secondary roto-cats like hits or PIMs, but that's ok as long as he stays healthy. The Blues invested in<br />
Perron in a big way this off-season with a four year, $15.25 million dollar contract, so the organization is<br />
convinced Perron will continue to flourish under Hitchcock.<br />
2. Kevin Shattenkirk<br />
Can't afford Pieterangelo? Get Shattenkirk. Shat puts up very similar stats in points, hits, blocked shots,<br />
<strong>and</strong> shots, but he'll cost half the price of Pieterangelo. That’s value.<br />
3. T.J. Oshie<br />
Oshie puts up similar point totals to Berglund (who I will<br />
dog later), but Oshie outshines Berglund when you realize<br />
he missed a chunk of games in two seasons. Oshie plays a<br />
physical game which will get you hits, but the style will also<br />
leave him a little banged up. Go ahead <strong>and</strong> factor in the<br />
time he will be on the IR, <strong>and</strong> keep an eye on the waiver<br />
wire to pick up someone on a heat streak while Oshie is<br />
down. Oshie could very well explode this year, <strong>and</strong> if he<br />
does, this might be the last year he’s affordable. Oshie is<br />
also a known commodity, with owners drooling over him in<br />
multi-cat leagues, making him trade bait thanks to his<br />
perceived upside.<br />
81
Man Down<br />
1. Patrik Berglund<br />
Berglund confuses the hell out of me. 47 points one year, then 26, then 52, then 38. Is he the new Vinny<br />
Prospal ? If Berglund follows his current trend, next year will be an up year, but trends mean nothing. In<br />
the end, Berglund is a “meh” player - there are just too many guys in the league like him out there.<br />
Berglund will never win you a fantasy championship, so do something else with this pick.<br />
2. Chris Stewart<br />
Something has to give. Stewart will either nab 60 points <strong>and</strong> pull down 100+ hits in a full season under<br />
Kevin Hitchcock or he'll be shipped out. I would guess the latter, but any relocation will help him<br />
improve on the totals he put up last year. Will he hit the 30 goal plateau again? Not likely in St. Louis,<br />
but maybe on another club.<br />
I’m spreading the hate - I’ve got two #3s to poop on.<br />
3a. Brian Elliott<br />
Do you honestly think he’ll repeat his stats from last year?<br />
Hitchcock has a history of turning lower end goalies into<br />
superstars, but at some point the Blues brass will lean on Halak.<br />
3b. Vladimir Tarasenko<br />
The rookie has an enormous amount of hype around him, but I’m<br />
concerned how he will react under Kevin Hitchcock’s system. Avoid at first.<br />
See how he plays, <strong>and</strong> once the hype fades (it will), make a play for him if<br />
you like what he brings.<br />
82
y David “sixh<strong>and</strong>s”<br />
The Lightning have only won the Stanley Cup once, back in 2004, <strong>and</strong> have only been to the playoffs a<br />
total of three times since then. Tampa Bay was also unable to defend the Cup, due to the lock out, but<br />
they did make the playoffs in the following two consecutive years. It would be another four years of<br />
basement dwelling before making the post season. In 2011 the Lightning finished with 103 points,<br />
finishing 5 th in the Eastern Conference. Tampa made an exceptional run that culminated with a loss to<br />
the Boston Bruins in the Conference Final. If you are a Lightning fan things are starting to look up in<br />
Florida.<br />
And here’s hoping it doesn’t involve anymore 1-3-1 tactics! (For those of you that don’t get the<br />
reference, the Lightning players will sometimes wait for the opposing team to bring the puck up the ice<br />
instead of pressing in the offensive zone). That said, some of the best players in the league are with<br />
Tampa Bay. So can I really criticise the likes of Stamkos, Lecavalier, St. Louis et al? Nope, I’ll just sit here<br />
at home hiding behind my computer <strong>and</strong> tell you who I think will improve or decline in the upcoming<br />
season.<br />
Improver :<br />
Teddy Purcell<br />
This undrafted workhorse has been on my radar since first reading about<br />
him in the Dobber fantasy guide. I picked him up off waivers in my fantasy<br />
league when he was still with the Kings <strong>and</strong> he bounced around my farm<br />
<strong>and</strong> main teams before I dropped him for a regular NHL player. Needless<br />
to say a savvy GM in my league plucked him off waivers <strong>and</strong> I think he<br />
enjoyed his career season last year more than Teddy did.<br />
The Tampa Bay right wing has played consecutive 82 game seasons with 51 <strong>and</strong> 65 points respectively.<br />
He uses his height <strong>and</strong> weight to his advantage which certainly makes puck possession <strong>and</strong> protection<br />
easier when you’re 6’2” <strong>and</strong> over 200lbs.<br />
Purcell also increased his goals from 17 to 24 over the past season <strong>and</strong> doing this while taking 44 less<br />
shots on goal. Even though his shots on goal decreased, his shooting percentage almost doubled from<br />
8.7 to 15.8 which means he is finding the net with a little more ease.<br />
Purcell is only 27, which means he is starting to enter his prime, <strong>and</strong> I would not be surprised if he<br />
becomes a point per game player within the next two years.<br />
Now Teddy won’t win you any leagues that count PIM or Plus/Minus but if you are in a points only<br />
league that places an emphasis on goals, power play points <strong>and</strong> game winners then Purcell will be your<br />
guy.<br />
My recommendation – Points only, keeper <strong>and</strong> one-year leagues. ~ Expect 32G 43A 12PPG 7GWG<br />
83
Decliner :<br />
Martin St.Louis<br />
Let me start by saying that I really didn’t want to put Martin<br />
under this heading but I think age may finally start to hamper<br />
his play. I know he is only 37 <strong>and</strong> several other successful<br />
players have had careers well into their 40’s but how many<br />
of them are only 5’8”?<br />
Speaking of height, or should I say lack thereof, until last<br />
season Martin had 8 consecutive 80pt seasons. Impressive to<br />
say the least <strong>and</strong> even last year’s 77 games is nothing to<br />
sneeze at but I think you will see that total get lower as each<br />
season wears on.<br />
If you’ve been reading this so far <strong>and</strong> are thinking … “Wow, this guy must be on another planet. Don’t<br />
worry when my passport expires I’ll return” but my point is this. I have never owned him <strong>and</strong> I never<br />
will, not in a keeper league anyway.<br />
With that being said do I think he will drastically reduce next year, probably not but once you have him<br />
on your roster it will be extremely tough getting good value for him in a trade.<br />
Like Purcell, you won’t get many PIM or a decent Plus/Minus rating out of St.Louis<br />
My recommendation - Points only, one-year league ONLY. ~ Expect 19G 47A 6PPG 1GWG<br />
With new additions to mentor the extremely talented young core of the Tampa Bay Lightning, <strong>and</strong> a<br />
beast of a goalie in Anders Lindback (I think he’s the starter before too long), the Bolts will be back in the<br />
playoffs. They may even secure another Stanley Cup before Stamkos can grow a proper playoff beard.<br />
84
y Tyler Kerdman<br />
Following a disappointing end to the 2011-12 NHL season, the expectations for the Toronto Maple Leafs<br />
in the st<strong>and</strong>ings aren’t all too high. However, a lack of wins does not consequently make players on the<br />
Buds statistically worthless. In fact, many players on the Leafs are intriguing options for any fantasy<br />
hockey team in 2012/13. Let’s look at the which Toronto Maple Leafs you should look towards heading<br />
into the new season. One is fairly obvious, one is a risk, <strong>and</strong> the two others are perfect c<strong>and</strong>idates to<br />
acquire before they bounce back to form:<br />
Count on Kessel<br />
Despite receiving an unhealthy amount of criticism last season for no apparent reason, Phil Kessel is<br />
without a doubt Toronto’s top player <strong>and</strong> fantasy contributor. Kessel has scored 30 goals in each of his 3<br />
years in the blue <strong>and</strong> white, <strong>and</strong> broke the elusive 80-point mark late last season. For the upcoming<br />
season, Kessel should score goals at just under a 0.5 ppg mark, <strong>and</strong> should record points at an average<br />
of about 1 every game.<br />
However, Kessel is not a dynamite player in all fantasy situations. Aside from his awful +/- (due to<br />
playing in Toronto), Kessel never hits <strong>and</strong> barely takes penalties. He also can go on cold streaks with few<br />
goals in few games, which can be very infuriating to fantasy owners in head-to-head leagues. Aside from<br />
that, Kessel is a reliable fantasy option who can help even the smallest of teams in the smallest of<br />
leagues.<br />
85
Potential, but Just Very Risky<br />
The most shocking move of the Leafs’ offseason to date was swapping top draft choice Luke Schenn for<br />
top draft choice James Van Riemsdyk. Van Riemsdyk, otherwise known as JVR, had a short stint in<br />
Philadelphia with glimmers of promise s<strong>and</strong>wiched by unfortunate injuries. But those glimmers of<br />
promise were very exciting to watch. JVR looked strong in the offensive zone with a wicked shot <strong>and</strong><br />
good vision, qualities which attracted the Leafs to the 23-year-old forward.<br />
In Toronto, JVR is lined up as the number 1 centre on the depths chart. This would slot him in between<br />
Kessel <strong>and</strong> Lupul, the two most efficient Maple Leafs last season. If Van Riemsdyk (who has not played<br />
centre since entering the NHL) is able to find his niche down the middle, his numbers could skyrocket.<br />
The worst case scenario is that he is “demoted” to second line winger <strong>and</strong> plays beside Mikhail<br />
Grabovski. If JVR can stay healthy (which is a very big “if”), he will put up great numbers in the blue <strong>and</strong><br />
white.<br />
The Buy-Low C<strong>and</strong>idate<br />
On the Toronto Maple Leafs this season, there is one player that can be a fantastic addition to many<br />
fantasy teams for a cheap price (due to his underwhelming campaign last season). That player is forward<br />
Nikolai Kulemin, who saw his goal total drop from 30 to 7 in one year. On the surface, it seems that the<br />
30-goal year was merely an outlier <strong>and</strong> a fluke. However, Kulemin is an extremely gritty <strong>and</strong> talented<br />
forward who, unfortunately, just got really unlucky last season. Posts were hit, shots were robbed, <strong>and</strong><br />
pucks seemed to bounce off of his stick throughout the 82 game season. The highest indication that he<br />
can return to form is by looking at his shooting percentage. It regressed from 17% down to 6%. If<br />
Kulemin can take higher percentage shots <strong>and</strong> pick his corners, he could be a fantastic addition to even<br />
the shallowest of hockey pools. He can be picked up for dirt cheap, making him a very low risk selection<br />
with high potential.<br />
86
y Ryan Goddard<br />
One thing that st<strong>and</strong>s out for the Vancouver Canucks is how they can benefit from a lockout. Yes,<br />
they’re more than a year removed from their long haul to the seventh game of the Stanley Cup finals.<br />
But with the weight of a “contender” title on their shoulders <strong>and</strong> a rushed return for Ryan Kesler after<br />
off-season shoulder surgery, it was clear the team was playing a catch-up game throughout the season.<br />
With plenty of time to rest after a first round playoff loss to the eventual cup winners (has to be<br />
mentioned, it makes me feel better) a few of the players have taken a new approach to their off-season<br />
preparation. I was lucky enough to sit down with a couple Canucks <strong>and</strong> ask them how they spent their<br />
summers putting so much heartbreak behind them <strong>and</strong> how they’ve managed to plan for an inevitable<br />
cut to their salaries.<br />
“It’s tough,” stated Daniel, from a hazy corner of the Amsterdam café he has been employed at since<br />
late May.<br />
“Dealing with glaucoma, I mean” he says with a slightly devilish grin <strong>and</strong> a quick wink that could easily<br />
be mistaken for a twitch.<br />
“No, I yoke, but it has been tough trying to forget that we lost the cup. It was ours. I feel, <strong>and</strong> my<br />
brother Henrik does too, that the cup really belonged to us that day. It was tough to recover, physically<br />
<strong>and</strong> mentally, <strong>and</strong> find the desire to score so many goals to get to the cup finals again. I actually decided<br />
I was going to score a few less goals this year <strong>and</strong> share some with my brother, Henrik, <strong>and</strong> even Ryan<br />
Kesler, who I play on the same team with. I think I messed up a bit though, because I forgot to tell them I<br />
was sharing, <strong>and</strong> so they didn’t score so many – <strong>and</strong> I think they should have. I don’t really think I should<br />
have had to tell them either. I am not a coach, I am a goal shooter. I am not a GM either, so I cannot<br />
find new players to score goals. Mike does that, <strong>and</strong> he really kinda…” Daniel giggles a bit nervously<br />
here, <strong>and</strong> gazes out the through the condensation on the picture window of the quaint café.<br />
“Well,” he continued “he really kinda fucked that up with David. We heard David likes shooting, like me,<br />
<strong>and</strong> I thought I would like him a lot. Really, though, he’s kinda strange <strong>and</strong> I think he thinks when he<br />
shoots in summer time it’s the only time he needs to be accurate.” Daniel shakes his head solemnly. He<br />
sighs, <strong>and</strong> stares intensely at the server as she passes by our table.<br />
“Henrik would have known that meant I wanted a bacon pannenkoeken.” Daniel stares down at the<br />
table. “I miss Henrik,” he says.<br />
This appears to be an invitation so I ask him about Henrik. “Hey, Daniel?” I say.<br />
His response was heavy <strong>and</strong> lacked personality. “Yes?”<br />
“Where is Henrik Sedin, your brother?”<br />
Daniel sits up from his slouched position <strong>and</strong> a little bit of light seems to shine behind those icy-blue<br />
eyes.<br />
87
“At our farm!” he exclaims.<br />
“Farm?” I ask curiously.<br />
“Yes! Our farm!”<br />
He sits back <strong>and</strong> crosses his arms over his concave, hairless chest.<br />
“We know we may have to lose money when the new CBA comes. This is sad to me <strong>and</strong> to my brother<br />
Henrik too. We won’t let it stop us though - from being rich I mean. From being rich <strong>and</strong> living like kings,<br />
but not showing it because that’s how we do. So we came up with a plan.”<br />
Daniel, at this point, has lit up like an Amsterdam customer.<br />
“We invested our money into a stor (stor is the Swedish word for “big”) carrot farm! We love carrots. I<br />
think, <strong>and</strong> my brother Henrik thinks, that all the people in the world will always eat carrots. It feels very<br />
safe to us, <strong>and</strong> so we invested money, along with our good friend, Ryan Kesler, into very nice carrot<br />
farms in California!” Daniel pounds his fist into the massively thick wooden table we sit at <strong>and</strong> stares at<br />
me in a sort of defiant “we did it” type gaze. At this point I feel like I’ve lost an argument to my younger<br />
sister over something she doesn’t even underst<strong>and</strong>.<br />
“You did this with Ryan Kesler?” I ask.<br />
“Yes. Our teammate, Ryan Kesler. Since he didn’t want to share so many<br />
goals with me last year, we thought it would be nice to learn sharing <strong>and</strong><br />
have his money, my money <strong>and</strong> my brother Henrik’s money invested all<br />
in one place!”<br />
Daniel puts his h<strong>and</strong>s to his temples <strong>and</strong> makes a low gurgling sound.<br />
“Daniel?” I ask.<br />
“Yeesss?” Daniel hisses through gritted teeth.<br />
“Are you O.K.?”<br />
At this point, Daniel st<strong>and</strong>s up, shakes his head slightly <strong>and</strong> shuffles off to the kitchen muttering<br />
something about a headache. Realizing I wasn’t about to get any more from Daniel today, if ever, I figure<br />
that the best way to continue would be to find Ryan Kesler <strong>and</strong> talk a bit with him about his business<br />
endeavours, relationship with the carrot-farming twins <strong>and</strong> how he’s spent his summer.<br />
So I’m in California. And I’m on a beach. Not really what I expected, but I guess Ryan Kesler did just have<br />
surgery – again.<br />
“Hi, Ryan Kesler.”<br />
“Hi,” Ryan grins, lying on a giant towel depicting Jesus taking a wrist shot on Dan Cloutier from center<br />
ice. His body is taut, <strong>and</strong> glistens from a half-bottle of Coppertone tanning lotion that lies, cap open,<br />
beside him.<br />
88
“So, is this how you generally spend your off-season?” I ask.<br />
“Yea, I love beaches. I’ve always loved beaches. Wanna know what I love about beaches?” Without<br />
waiting for a reply he continues. “There are so many different kinds of beaches. They come in all<br />
different shape, sizes <strong>and</strong> colors. I love to lie on beaches. Sometimes I cover my entire body in s<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
just let the damn beach lie on me.” He grins again <strong>and</strong> places his h<strong>and</strong>s behind his head, completely<br />
relaxed.<br />
“God, I love me a good beach. Have you ever seen the movie Phat Beach? One of my faves, dude. Check<br />
it out. I actually own it on VHS <strong>and</strong> DVD. You can’t borrow it though, really, just ‘cus I like it so much. I’d<br />
be pissed if something happened to it.”<br />
At this point I’m wondering to myself if I’m actually doing an interview or if I’m just going to end up<br />
sitting <strong>and</strong> listening to Ryan Kesler talk.<br />
“I’m going for a swim,” Ryan states all of a sudden. “Wanna come? I’m just going out to that dock for a<br />
bit.” I follow the finger he’s pointing with <strong>and</strong> my eyes rest upon a dock, about 50 feet out, teeming with<br />
bodies.<br />
“I’ll watch,” I say.<br />
“Pussy,” sneers Ryan.<br />
“Do you like diving off the dock?” I ask mockingly as I allow a half-smile to creep onto my face.<br />
“Pffffft,” he sprays as he heads down the beach “I get people to push me. I like it when people push me<br />
off <strong>and</strong> I fall in the water.” He takes off towards the dock <strong>and</strong> leaves me sitting on the beach, watching<br />
while 6 <strong>and</strong> 7 year old kids scream <strong>and</strong> giggle as they effortlessly toss Ryan Kesler off the dock over <strong>and</strong><br />
over again.<br />
“So,” says Ryan as he dries off <strong>and</strong> re-oils after his escapade in the water, “I heard you were talking to<br />
Danny? He called. I let it go to voicemail, though, but he told me he told you about the carrot farms we<br />
invested in to make sure we have prosperity in the future. We try to keep it on the D.L., but if he trusted<br />
you I can trust you a bit too… I guess.” Ryan sits up, leaning on one elbow, <strong>and</strong> looks at me over top of<br />
his Ray-Ban sunglasses.<br />
“You see, it’s pretty lucrative. The carrot business – have you ever heard of someone, or met someone,<br />
who’s in the carrot business? Doubt it. We are, though. We think it’s gonna be pretty good for us. Best<br />
part is, so many carrots are farmed in California. You might think other places, but that’s just not the<br />
case. Here. California. Cal-eee-phone-ya.” Ryan does his best Schawrzenegger impression <strong>and</strong> laughs so<br />
hard that spittle begins to cake my forehead. I wipe it away with my forearm.<br />
“Hot, isn’t it?” questions Ryan, though he really isn’t looking for an answer. “You’re sweating… here,”<br />
<strong>and</strong> he h<strong>and</strong>s me a dried-up, somewhat crusty b<strong>and</strong>anna in the form of the American flag. I take it<br />
politely, but cast it aside as Ryan lies back down.<br />
“Can I ask you a question, Ryan Kesler?” I say as I shuffle my butt a few feet away from Ryan’s blanket.<br />
89
“Sure, dude”<br />
“Well, with all due respect, I’m just a bit curious as to how you will approach the up-coming season,<br />
what with another surgery <strong>and</strong> all the talk that GM Gillis thinks you may be able to come back earlier<br />
than expected.”<br />
I watch Ryan’s face carefully <strong>and</strong> see a frown begin to crease his<br />
forehead.<br />
“There is speculation that, maybe, you came back a little bit early last<br />
year <strong>and</strong> that hurt your production – namely your wrist shot,” I<br />
continue.<br />
“You don’t like my wrist shot?” Ryan retorts accusingly.<br />
“Um, no, actually I love your wrist shot. I’m just wondering what you’re going to do to make sure it’s<br />
going to come back.”<br />
“Well, do you know anything about hockey?” Ryan asks. “It’s like riding a bike, dude. My wrist shot will<br />
be just fine. You ask weird questions.”<br />
“O.K., well, do you have some sort of plan or training strategy that will make sure you come back 100%,<br />
<strong>and</strong> at the right time?”<br />
Ryan Kesler sits up <strong>and</strong> appears to stare at me through those ultra-dark Ray-Ban sunglasses. “Yes,” he<br />
says, “I do.” He st<strong>and</strong>s, rolls up his giant towel - which takes approximately two <strong>and</strong> a half<br />
uncomfortable, awkward minutes, <strong>and</strong> turns to face me. “It was great to meet you,” he says, his voice<br />
dripping with sarcasm. He sticks out his right h<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> before I can meet his with mine, he gives a quick<br />
air-shake <strong>and</strong> turns to leave.<br />
“I’m going to find me a beach that doesn’t talk so much.”<br />
90
y Eric Daoust<br />
Surprises :<br />
• Nicklas Backstrom<br />
Only two seasons removed from scoring 101 points, Backstrom is<br />
primed for a return to form. With new coach Adam Oates in the<br />
mix, Backstrom st<strong>and</strong>s to benefit <strong>and</strong> has a strong foundation to<br />
work from considering that he had 44 points in 42 games last<br />
season. The concussion does present a small risk though.<br />
• John Carlson<br />
Many poolies have been waiting for the day that Carlson delivers on the hype surrounding his<br />
name. His first two full seasons produced 37 <strong>and</strong> 32 points, both very respectable totals.<br />
However, talent will eventually take him to the next level <strong>and</strong> there is a good chance that he<br />
takes a step forward this season. There is too much talent up front for him not to benefit.<br />
• Roman Hamrlik<br />
Last season, Hamrlik scored just 13 points but in the four prior campaigns in Montreal he<br />
averaged about 30 points per season. He is getting older but still has good hockey left in him.<br />
With a lot of talent at forward <strong>and</strong> a renewed emphasis on scoring, it will be interesting to see if<br />
Hamrlik can revisit the 30-point plateau.<br />
Disappointments :<br />
• Alex<strong>and</strong>er Ovechkin<br />
It is very reasonable to assume that Ovechkin will improve upon last season’s<br />
(relatively) poor 65 point output. However, some people could be banking on<br />
a return to 60 goals <strong>and</strong> 110 points. It would be wise to be a bit cautious<br />
because there are fewer goals in the NHL today than there were a few years<br />
ago <strong>and</strong> a player’s confidence does not necessarily return overnight.<br />
• Mike Green<br />
Much like Ovechkin, Green is in a great position to relive some past glory this upcoming season.<br />
But again, confidence is not always regained immediately <strong>and</strong> the emergence of youngsters<br />
Carlson <strong>and</strong> Dmitri Orlov could mean that there are fewer points to roll around. A 40-point<br />
season is a safer projection until he proves that he can stay healthy.<br />
• Braden Holtby<br />
Last spring’s playoff hero enters this season projected to be the team’s starting goaltender.<br />
However, players <strong>and</strong> especially goaltenders experience bumps in the road during their<br />
development. Holtby will not be immune to such growing pains. He will be effective, but Michal<br />
Neuvirth is a very capable goaltender himself <strong>and</strong> will earn a lot of starts. Expect a split in<br />
playing time, with Neuvirth perhaps winning out this season.<br />
91
y Anthony Capocci<br />
The Winnipeg Jets will be, if not already, a very deep team for fantasy purposes in 2012-13 <strong>and</strong> years<br />
beyond. Goals, assists, points, <strong>and</strong> other important categories are covered. The Jets have <strong>and</strong> will have<br />
players ranging from top goal scorers to top playmakers. Their talent <strong>and</strong> depth makes the Jets one of<br />
the most promising young teams in the NHL.<br />
If you’re looking for the next best player, you might find him coming out of Winnipeg. If you’re looking<br />
for the next big sleeper that everyone will be trying to nab, you might find him coming out of Winnipeg.<br />
And if you’re looking to dig deep in a deeper league on a desperate attempt to fill the void of an injury,<br />
trade, or any type of replacement, well you might just find that diamond in the rough coming out of<br />
Winnipeg.<br />
Regardless of how your league is structured, whether it is a one-year league or a multi-year league, the<br />
Jets have players suited for everyone. From the 12-team leagues to the 30-team leagues, no matter how<br />
far you have to dig, the Jets will be one of the teams to keep an eye on this season.<br />
With all the good coming out of Winnipeg, there are bound to be some letdowns as well. And a letdown<br />
might not occur because that player is considered “bad”. Some players just don’t fit in right now or it<br />
may not be their time just yet. In this article, I’ll tell you who you must have, who to keep an eye on, <strong>and</strong><br />
who to avoid in the coming season.<br />
MUST HAVES<br />
Ev<strong>and</strong>er Kane<br />
Don’t let the contract negotiations discourage you. Ev<strong>and</strong>er Kane will still be Ev<strong>and</strong>er Kane when the<br />
season starts. The young power-forward is one of the up-<strong>and</strong>-coming elites. The 21-year-old has only<br />
just begun to get his feet wet.<br />
Kane has progressed each season <strong>and</strong> topped previous season totals in each of his three seasons. After a<br />
30-goal performance last season, look for Kane to make his way up the ranks as a mid to high 30 goal<br />
scorer in 2012-13.<br />
Blake Wheeler<br />
If you think Blake Wheeler is a one-year wonder, you need to think again<br />
<strong>and</strong> again until you buy into his game. Wheeler was arguably the most<br />
impressive Jets forward last season with a career-high of 64 points. From<br />
his offensive game to his defensive game, to his speed, size, <strong>and</strong> frame,<br />
Wheeler is one of the most dominant players on the Jets roster.<br />
Ever since he was acquired by this franchise in 2010-11, Wheeler found a home on a line with Andrew<br />
Ladd <strong>and</strong> Bryan Little. Look for the same combination to occur this season. Look for Wheeler to build off<br />
of last season as he becomes a year older <strong>and</strong> a year wiser.<br />
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Dustin Byfuglien<br />
The most valuable position to own a superstar as far as fantasy owners are concerned is defense. With<br />
that, Dustin Byfuglien is as superstar as it gets when it comes to fantasy hockey. In a season in which he<br />
missed 16 games due to injury, Byfuglien was still able to put up 12 goals <strong>and</strong> 53 points last season. The<br />
defense may not be there just yet, but the offensive side of his game should never be questioned.<br />
No, his 2011-12 season with the Atlanta Thrashers wasn’t a fluke. Byfuglien posted 20 goals <strong>and</strong> 53<br />
points that year <strong>and</strong> than many people jumped ship the following season thinking it wasn’t going to last.<br />
However, it lasted, <strong>and</strong> Byfuglien would have set a new career-high in points with ease if he didn’t miss<br />
the 16 games. There is no doubt that Byfuglien will still be one of the best fantasy defenseman in the<br />
entire league.<br />
LETDOWNS<br />
Alex Burmistrov<br />
This one is tricky. Alex Burmistrov is a very talented young center with skills to become a nice fantasy<br />
player one day. But for now, it seems the Jets are relying on Burmistrov to be more of a defensive-type<br />
center even though he’s already shown glimpses that he can be a great one. There’s no questioning his<br />
ethic <strong>and</strong> his desire to compete. I’d like to think there’s no questioning the potential he has on the<br />
offensive side of things, but I have to question it based off of management decisions.<br />
Until Burmistrov is seeing time with capable players around him, he’ll have to be written off for fantasy.<br />
It’s not a knock on him or the players that he’s playing with, but let’s face it, Burmistrov is not going to<br />
excel as a threat on the third <strong>and</strong> fourth line. For his first two seasons as an NHLer, Burmistrov’s put up<br />
decent numbers. But until the Jets figure out with they’re going to do with him, he can’t be trusted as a<br />
fantasy producer.<br />
Zach Bogosian<br />
Kyle Wellwood<br />
Kyle Wellwood had a very impressive season in 2011-12 setting a careerhigh<br />
in points with 47, <strong>and</strong> tying his career-high in goals with 18. However,<br />
if you have any expectations for him to match or succeed what he did last<br />
season, you’ll be in for quite the disappointment. Wellwood is a capable<br />
NHLer, but unless he really found himself in the past year, he’ll go back to<br />
being a 20-25-point player at best.<br />
Just as it looked like things were starting to come along, Zach Bogosian will be sidelined for at least four<br />
months after a successful surgery on his wrist just a couple of weeks ago. When Bogosian eventually<br />
returns to action at some point down the road, there will be the “unknown” factor. And many fantasy<br />
players dislike the unknown.<br />
This doesn’t mean to give up on Zach just yet. To be honest, Bogosian still has plenty of time to live up to<br />
his potential of a third-overall draft pick. It just won’t come this season, unfortunately. Bogosian was<br />
coming off of a 30-point season which was a new career-high for him.<br />
93
SURPRISES<br />
Paul Postma<br />
If you’re looking to dig deep in an attempt to find the ultimate sleeper, you may have just found him.<br />
Paul Postma is going to see plenty of ice time this season for him to become an offensive machine<br />
especially with Zach Bogosian missing time. For those who don’t know, Postma is known for his<br />
offensive prowess at the defensive position. The challenge will be for him to convert his production to<br />
the NHL level.<br />
Postma was a seventh-round draft pick in 2007. However, he was drafted from the Swift Current<br />
Broncos of the WHL after coming off of a 24-point season. It wasn’t until he was traded to the Calgary<br />
Hitmen the following year which propelled him to break out. Postma scored 14 goals <strong>and</strong> 42 points in his<br />
first year with the Hitmen. In the ensuing year, Postma set single-season team records for goals <strong>and</strong><br />
points by a defenseman, scoring 24 times <strong>and</strong> posting 84 points. He’s been a consistent 40-point getter<br />
in the AHL as well as 12 to 15 goals a season.<br />
Bryan Little<br />
I don’t know how much of a surprise it would be because Bryan Little is an already established player,<br />
even when it comes to fantasy hockey, but expect a solid season here. Little is a one-time 30-goal<br />
scorer, <strong>and</strong> last season, Little found his way back into the 20-goal territory for the first time in two years<br />
as he netted 24 goals. For the past two seasons, Little’s been hovering around the high 40s in terms of<br />
points.<br />
Little’s overshadowed by other players on his line <strong>and</strong> team, but he cannot be forgotten about. If there<br />
were to be a surprise 30-goal scoring coming out of Winnipeg, look for it to be Little.<br />
Ondrej Pavelec<br />
Is this the year Ondrej Pavelec becomes a full-fledged fantasy stud? He’s usually a part-time stud with a<br />
good stretch of games here <strong>and</strong> a good stretch of games there. But he’s always a full-time competitor<br />
<strong>and</strong> anchor for the Jets. His compete level cannot be questioned even if the numbers don’t add up. It’s<br />
not exactly a great situation as far as defense goes in Winnipeg. Many times Pavelec had to be up to the<br />
task with little help in front.<br />
When looking at his numbers, they don’t resemble<br />
that of even a fantasy starter let alone a top-20<br />
fantasy goalie. It’s an odd situation because<br />
Pavelec is one of the promising young netminders<br />
in this league. He won’t be able to do it all by<br />
himself, but with never really having any help in<br />
front, he’s groomed to be a goalie without much<br />
reliance on defense. Obviously, he’s going to need<br />
some help, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see<br />
Pavelec take the next level in 2012-13, especially<br />
after signing a new contract in the offseason.<br />
94
GMG’s Final Words<br />
A Game Within the Game…<br />
When dealing with fellow GMs, there is much more to assets than their pound to pound value. The<br />
initial reaction poolies get when looking at a certain player dictates a strong percentage of their net<br />
worth. That worth is surely different to every GM. It is your duty to find your asset’s true value. Now<br />
place them at the center of balanced scale. When the trade game comes up, <strong>and</strong> it will, you should<br />
know without hesitation if the offer at h<strong>and</strong> topples the scale in either direction. Act accordingly.<br />
In essence, perceived value holds a lot more weight than production value. Winning GMs can build their<br />
dynasties simply by playing the game within the game. It is an underlying art that can make or break<br />
fantasy teams. In order start carrying out a sound offensive game, a strong defensive foundation needs<br />
to be established first. No exceptions.<br />
In each following editions of the <strong>Roto</strong> Guide, this section will delve deeper into helping poolies become<br />
better fantasy GMs by 1) strengthening a vulnerable defence <strong>and</strong> 2) eventually tackle various offensive<br />
strategies with detailed scenarios. If you are new to the game, or looking to join a keeper league, take<br />
note. As for the most seasoned of veterans, use it as a refresher course. Little nuggets of information<br />
may leave you thinking differently about certain situations when challenged at the trade table. If<br />
anything, it is always beneficial to build upon the book of fantasy hockey knowledge <strong>and</strong> beyond.<br />
Oh <strong>and</strong> the <strong>Roto</strong> PDF mailbag is now open! Send in your keeper league rotisserie questions, comments<br />
or concerns <strong>and</strong> potentially have them answered in next month’s PDF <strong>Exclusive</strong>.<br />
Lastly, I would like to express my thanks to all of the contributors who made this Volume 3.0 kick off a<br />
smashing success. I am very fortunate to have a group of guys that have stepped up <strong>and</strong> delivered more<br />
than what I could have asked for. This PDF was truly built by the DobberHockey community. Hope<br />
everyone enjoyed this massive edition of the <strong>Roto</strong> Guide. With good feedback, future projects <strong>and</strong><br />
collaborations with this stellar crew may become reality.<br />
Best,<br />
Gates Imbeau<br />
Assistant Manager - DobberSports.com<br />
Writer - Fantrax.com<br />
Email: gates@dobbersports.com<br />
Twitter: @gm_gates<br />
95
Who are the Black Aces?<br />
NHL Team Coverage -<br />
Shakedown - Chicago Blackhawks<br />
TK12555 - Toronto Maple Leafs<br />
littleranger - New York Rangers<br />
donions - Edmonton Oilers<br />
Big Ev - Ottawa Senators<br />
ericdaoust - Montreal Canadiens<br />
dmvincent - Detroit Red Wings<br />
Vincent Vega – New York Isl<strong>and</strong>ers<br />
Flyer Fan - Philadelphia Flyers<br />
AtlantaSportsFan - Winnipeg Jets<br />
tgraveline - San Jose Sharks<br />
Bomm Bastic - Buffalo Sabres<br />
ridinryan44 - Vancouver Canucks<br />
newper - New Jersey Devils<br />
4T2 - Boston Bruins<br />
mapletreemarty - Colorado Avalanche<br />
jeffl97 - Anaheim Ducks<br />
First Round Pick - Calgary Flames<br />
Keytolife - Florida Panthers<br />
mounD – Pittsburgh Penguins<br />
uofmehockey –Nashville Predators<br />
InnocentByst<strong>and</strong>er - St. Louis Blues<br />
Fast Tony DeNiro - Columbus Blue Jackets<br />
Fighting Emu – Carolina Hurricanes<br />
NoWayOut – Dallas Stars<br />
sixh<strong>and</strong>s – Washington Capitals<br />
Ross the Boss Palmer – Minnesota Wild<br />
T.B.D / Open - Tampa Bay Lightning<br />
T.B.D / Open - Los Angeles Kings<br />
T.B.D / Open - Phoenix Coyotes<br />
2011-12 DobberHockey Studs & Duds Crew -<br />
Regular Season<br />
Steve Laidlaw - @SteveLaidlaw<br />
Eric Daoust - @DH_EricDaoust<br />
Mac Vincent - @MacVincent1<br />
Br<strong>and</strong>on Cheung - @b0ndon<br />
Tyler Kerdman - @T_Kerdman<br />
Michael Amato - @amato_mike<br />
Br<strong>and</strong>on L<strong>and</strong>ry - @thel<strong>and</strong>shock<br />
2012-13 DobberHockey Studs & Duds Crew -<br />
T.B.D<br />
Studs & Duds Weekly Recap via Fantrax.com -<br />
Gates Imbeau - @GM_Gates<br />
2011-12 Pengwin7’s Depth Charts<br />
Interested in joining the NHL Team Coverage,<br />
Newsfeed <strong>and</strong>/or Studs & Duds crew for the 2012-<br />
13 season? Send me an email at the contact<br />
information below.<br />
The roto mailbag is now open. Send in your roto<br />
questions <strong>and</strong> have them answered in next<br />
month’s PDF <strong>Exclusive</strong>.<br />
PDF Editor : Gates Imbeau<br />
Email – gates@dobbersports.com<br />
Twitter – @GM_Gates<br />
96