Report of the Joint Study Group on the Feasibility of India-Indonesia ...

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13 1994 252.62 283.20 -30.58 1995 500.69 383.67 117.02 1996 569.04 578.35 -9.30 1997 475.93 698.38 -222.45 1998 248.45 804.73 -556.28 1999 290.73 926.38 -635.65 2000 385.80 922.35 -536.55 2001 442.05 1159.33 -717.28 2002 753.80 1294.86 -541.06 2003 1053.10 1936.78 -883.68 2004 1251.22 2412.06 -1160.84 2005 1361.73 2854.61 -1492.88 2006 1279.48 3729.87 -2450.39 2007 1463.28 5438.30 -3975.02 2008* 1,816.07 5,042.00 -3,225.93 Note * Ap-Dec *Source : Ministry <strong>of</strong> Commerceand Industry, Governmet <strong>of</strong> India Source: IMF DOTS Yearbook, February 2009 The above observation is corroborated from figures presented in Table 2 suggesting that mostly exports have been increasing with two digit growth rates, <strong>of</strong>ten registering high growth rate such as 48 per cent (1981) 96 per cent (1989), 85 per cent (1990), 98 per cent (1995) and 70 per cent (2002). On <strong>the</strong> front <strong>of</strong> imports <strong>the</strong> higher levels reached were on account <strong>of</strong> even greater growth rates including 147 per cent (1984), 104 per cent (1986), 225 per cent (1990) and 223 per cent (1994). However, <strong>the</strong>re are several years that are charctersied by negative growth rates both in exports as well as imports. Table 2. Growth <strong>of</strong> India's Bilateral Trade with Indonesia Growth in Exports (Annual % Change) Growth in Imports (Annual % Change) Growth in Exports (Annual % Change) Growth in Imports (Annual % Change) Year Year 1995 98.20 35.48 1981 47.95 -10.21 1996 13.65 50.74 1982 29.07 -28.01 1997 -16.36 20.75 1983 -71.93 7.27 1998 -47.80 15.23 1984 42.77 147.18 1999 17.02 15.12 1985 -72.18 -10.13 2000 32.70 -0.43 1986 54.15 103.95 2001 14.58 25.69 1987 22.36 -33.12 2002 70.52 11.69 1988 25.77 8.87 2003 39.70 49.57 1989 95.87 -5.43 2004 18.81 24.54 1990 85.18 225.09 2005 8.83 18.35 1991 57.29 -61.11 2006 -6.04 30.66 1992 -1.10 9.21 2007 14.36 45.80 1993 39.56 19.42 2008* 24.11 -7.29 1994 26.14 222.85 Note: * Ap-Dec * Source : Ministry <strong>of</strong> Commerceand Industry, Governmet <strong>of</strong> India Source: Calculated from IMF, DOTS Yearbook, February 2009
14 II.2.2. Volatility This fluctuation is more visible in Chart 1. It is very clear for Chart 1 that both exports and imports have shown volatilities in <strong>the</strong>ir patterns between 1981 and 2006. It can also be seen that <strong>the</strong> peaks in import pattern are manifolds higher than exports. Trend in Growth <strong>of</strong> India-Indonesia Bilateral Trade 250 Growth in Export/Import 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Year 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Year Chart 1 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008* Growth in Exports (Annual % Change) Growth in Imports (Annual % Change) Quite <strong>of</strong>ten, an analysis <strong>of</strong> trade patterns and bilateral trade trends ignore <strong>the</strong> merits <strong>of</strong> a stable bilateral trade relation. To underscore this point coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation has been calculated as a measure <strong>of</strong> instability in bilateral linkages between India and Indonesia over 1980-2006. The results are presented in Table 3. Two points needs to be highlighted at this stage. Firstly, both exports and imports display high levels <strong>of</strong> instability and second imports have remained more volatile as compared to fluctuation in exports. Table 3. Instability in India-Indonesia Bilateral Trade Measures Coefficient <strong>of</strong> Variation: Exports Coefficient <strong>of</strong> Variation: Imports Standard Deviation 459.76 965.13 Mean 379.87 690.48 Coefficient <strong>of</strong> Variation 121.03 139.78
Page 1 and 2: 0 Report o
Page 3 and 4: 2 Letter of Transm
Page 5 and 6: 4 4. These estimates were complemen
Page 7 and 8: 6 I. Overview The bilateral relatio
Page 9 and 10: 8 II. Trade in Goods II. 1. Introdu
Page 11 and 12: 10 Box 2 : Indonesia’s Trade Poli
Page 13: 12 Indonesia has stressed that <str
Page 17 and 18: 16 Table 4. Relative Importance <st
Page 19 and 20: 18 Nevertheless, d
Page 21 and 22: 20 II.7.1. Rules of</strong
Page 23 and 24: 22 II. 7. 3. TBT, Sanitary and Phyt
Page 25 and 26: 24 II.8.2. CGE Simulations To compl
Page 27 and 28: 26 Objectives The national steel in
Page 29 and 30: 28 Table 9. Trade Complementarities
Page 31 and 32: 30 Intra industy trade has been bei
Page 33 and 34: 32 India has improved its position
Page 35 and 36: 34 the Government
Page 37 and 38: 36 (D). FDI has been allowed up to
Page 39 and 40: 38 public health safety and securit
Page 41 and 42: 40 Table 11 Portfolio investment fl
Page 43 and 44: 42 event that the
Page 45 and 46: 44 underpinned by high protection a
Page 47 and 48: 46 From August 1991 to December 200
Page 49 and 50: 48 A perusal of <s
Page 51 and 52: 50 III.4.2. Indonesia Indonesia ran
Page 53 and 54: 52 largest Indian investments took
Page 55 and 56: 54 Number Business Field Region/Pro
Page 57 and 58: 56 - identify target areas for tech
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Page 61 and 62: 60 3.10. Construction and Related E
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64 telecommunication services in In
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66 operate international telephone
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68 Banking Architecture (API). API
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70 Under the propo
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72 3. To improve the</stron
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74 IV.4.9.2. India Given India's un
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76 is limited up to 49 per cent. On
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78 • Have substantial sectoral co
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80 • Availability of</str
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82 V. 5.3. Forestry Indonesia has a
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84 V.6. Cooperation in Transportati
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86 countries/ agencies, after signi
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88 For enhancing training and educa
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90 In a partial-equilibrium framewo
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92 VI.4 Trade in Services In respec
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1 Terms of Referen
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3 Table A.I.1 Composition o
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5 Table A.I.2 Composition o
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7 Annexure 2 Table A.II.I Sectors w
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9 Table A.II.I Sectors with Dynamic
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11 Table A.II.2 Sectors with Dynami
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13 Annexure 3 Table A.III.1 Indones
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15 Table A.III.2 Indonesia as an Im
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17 Annexure 4 Table A.IV.1 Potentia
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19 Table A.IV.1 Potential for India
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45 Table A.IV.3 Potential for <stro
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59 Table A.V.1 Items Amenable for I
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75 Annexure 6 HS 6-digit Code Table
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77 HS 6-digit Code Table A.VI.1 Ind
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85 Annexure 7 Table: Macro Economic
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87 Forecasting India’s exports to
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89 POLICY ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTM
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91 (iii) Other ser
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93 vii) viii) ix) x) xi) xii) xiii)
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95 30. Satellites - Establishment a
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97 Investment Incentives Annexure C
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99 India's share in Asia**) 2.46 4.
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101 Fig 6: Comparative Trend in RCA
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