Environment Risk Analysis - Indian Coast Guard
Environment Risk Analysis - Indian Coast Guard Environment Risk Analysis - Indian Coast Guard
• Two separate model runs were used to calculate the trajectories for this statistical report. – 9-year (1986-1994) simulation performed by Dynalysis of Princeton (Herring, et al., 1999) – 7-year period, 1993-1999, performed by Princeton University (Oey, et al.,2004) for and the results were saved at 1-hour intervals. • The statistics for the contacts by the trajectories forced by the two model runs were combined for the average probabilities. • The ocean model simulations were extensively skillassessed with many observations from the GoM (Herring et al., 1999; Oey, et al., 2005) and a good determination of the model’s veracity was made. 10 th NOS-DCP Meeting 32 Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi
Results from GoM Oil Spill Risk Analysis • As one might expect, the environmental resource locations closest to the spill sites had the greatest risk of contact. • Due to the climatology of the wind, the spring season had the higher average probabilities of contact (the highest being 8 percent), and the fall season had the lowest (none greater than 0.5 percent). • With increased travel time, the complex patterns of wind and ocean currents produce eddy-like motions of the oil spills and multiple opportunities for a spill to make contact with any given environmental resource. 10 th NOS-DCP Meeting 33 Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi
- Page 1 and 2: THE TENTH NATIONAL OIL SPILL DISAST
- Page 3 and 4: MAJOR OIL SPILL INCIDENTS Year Plac
- Page 5 and 6: Stages of Risk Analysis Hazard Iden
- Page 7 and 8: 2. Frequency Analysis i.e. Assessme
- Page 9 and 10: 4. Risk Calculation: Broadly risk c
- Page 11 and 12: CASE STUDIES 10 th NOS-DCP Meeting
- Page 13 and 14: Background of the Analysis • Cret
- Page 15 and 16: Map of Crete 10 th NOS-DCP Meeting
- Page 17 and 18: • As per priorities of significan
- Page 19 and 20: • The combined Risk Units for eac
- Page 21 and 22: Results from Crete Oil Spill Risk A
- Page 23 and 24: Risk Combination for Tourist zones,
- Page 25 and 26: METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW • Hazard ide
- Page 27 and 28: Location of Gulf of Mexico Counties
- Page 29 and 30: • At about 11 km intervals in the
- Page 31: • The model counts the occurrence
- Page 35 and 36: 10 th NOS-DCP Meeting 35 Prof. Manj
- Page 37 and 38: • The remotely sensed data as spa
- Page 39 and 40: • The GIS based system can be use
- Page 41 and 42: CONCLUSIONS • A schematic risk as
Results from GoM Oil Spill <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong><br />
• As one might expect, the environmental resource<br />
locations closest to the spill sites had the greatest risk<br />
of contact.<br />
• Due to the climatology of the wind, the spring season<br />
had the higher average probabilities of contact (the<br />
highest being 8 percent), and the fall season had the<br />
lowest (none greater than 0.5 percent).<br />
• With increased travel time, the complex patterns of<br />
wind and ocean currents produce eddy-like motions of<br />
the oil spills and multiple opportunities for a spill to<br />
make contact with any given environmental resource.<br />
10 th NOS-DCP Meeting<br />
33<br />
Prof. Manju Mohan<br />
CAS, IIT Delhi
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