National Freight Demands Study - Ministry of Transport

National Freight Demands Study
5.3.8 Operations ....................................................................................... 148
5.4 Developments in ports and international shipping patterns .......................... 149
5.4.1 Current patterns of port and airport operations ................................... 149
5.4.2 Background and development in the port sector to the late 1980s ......... 151
5.4.3 Developments after the late 1980s ..................................................... 153
5.4.4 Particular developments at ports ........................................................ 155
5.4.5 Pressures from outside New Zealand .................................................. 159
5.4.6 The response of ports ....................................................................... 160
5.5 Coastal shipping ..................................................................................... 160
5.5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 160
5.5.2 Cook Strait traffic ............................................................................. 161
5.5.3 Development and decline of coastal-shipping services .......................... 161
5.5.4 Current patterns of services ............................................................... 162
5.5.5 Main domestic movements ................................................................ 165
5.5.6 The future ....................................................................................... 166
5.6 Air freight ............................................................................................... 167
6 Other identified constraints ................................................................... 169
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 169
6.2 Issues affecting road-haulage services ...................................................... 169
6.3 Issues affecting rail operations ................................................................. 170
6.4 Issues affecting coastal shipping .............................................................. 171
7 Trends in freight handling and logistics ................................................. 173
7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 173
7.2 Increases in the cost of fuel ..................................................................... 173
7.3 Changes in logistics patterns .................................................................... 173
7.3.1 Increasing use of distribution centres (DCs) ........................................ 173
7.3.2 Changes in importing patterns ........................................................... 174
7.4 Changes in costs of road transport and the availability of services................ 174
7.5 Changes in the position for rail and possible effects of the government purchase
of the rail network ............................................................................................ 175
7.6 Changes in shipping patterns ................................................................... 176
7.7 Growth in specialist logistics firms............................................................. 177
7.8 Overall impacts of the changes ................................................................. 177
8 Drivers of freight mode choice ............................................................... 179
8.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 179
8.2 Key drivers ............................................................................................. 179
8.2.1 Price ............................................................................................... 179
8.2.2 Service speed, reliability and flexibility ................................................ 180
8.2.3 Modal connectivity or its absence ....................................................... 180
8.2.4 Security and potential for damage ...................................................... 181
8.2.5 Ease of intermodal transfer ............................................................... 181
8.2.6 Requirement for specialised handling facilities ..................................... 181
8.2.7 Provision of value-added activities in the supply chain .......................... 182
8.2.8 Environmental and sustainability issues .............................................. 182
8.2.9 Personal and industry relationships .................................................... 182
8.3 Key issues .............................................................................................. 182
8.3.1 A possible framework ........................................................................ 182
8.3.2 Application of the framework to selected commodities ......................... 183
8.4 Overall assessment ................................................................................. 185
9 Future growth in freight demand ........................................................... 186
9.1 Recent growth in freight demand ............................................................. 186
9.2 Forecasts of the freight task by other parties ............................................. 186
9.3 Background population and economic forecasts ......................................... 187
9.4 Forecasts by commodity: introduction ....................................................... 189
9.5 Liquid milk and manufactured dairy products ............................................. 189