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National Freight Demands Study - Ministry of Transport

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<strong>National</strong> <strong>Freight</strong> <strong>Demands</strong> <strong>Study</strong><br />

2.5 Evolution <strong>of</strong> the freight sector and changes in the level <strong>of</strong> demand<br />

The surveys also sought to identify the way in which the freight sector is likely to evolve<br />

over the future in relation to changing patterns <strong>of</strong> demand and changes in the way in<br />

which freight might be handled and any constraints and issues which might impinge on<br />

this process. In developing future forecasts, these views <strong>of</strong> the respondents were<br />

combined with an appreciation <strong>of</strong> the data on recent trends and likely developments to<br />

produce estimates <strong>of</strong> future output and transport requirements for each <strong>of</strong> the major<br />

commodity groups identified. Forecasts for each <strong>of</strong> the commodities identified were<br />

produced for the short term (five years), medium term (10 years), and longer term (25<br />

years), and overall longer-term forecasts were produced for movements by rail and<br />

coastal shipping. These combined forecasts <strong>of</strong> the total growth <strong>of</strong> the sectors identified<br />

with an assessment <strong>of</strong> the way in which the rail or coastal shipping share might change<br />

over time, either in response to specific developments or to general changes in the<br />

modal position.<br />

The results <strong>of</strong> this forecasting exercise were then been compared with forecasts<br />

produced by other sources in particular the MoT 8 and <strong>Transport</strong> Engineering Research<br />

New Zealand (TERNZ) 9 .<br />

2.6 Other qualitative issues<br />

As indicated above, the interviews and surveys covered a number <strong>of</strong> other issues<br />

affecting the freight sector, including the ways in which the sector might develop in the<br />

future and the constraints that those involved in the movement <strong>of</strong> freight faced now or<br />

might face subsequently. We also used the information from the surveys and<br />

discussions to identify a number <strong>of</strong> the key issues affecting freight mode choice.<br />

A key part <strong>of</strong> our work was investigating the data that is available to assist those with<br />

interests in the sector, either by being involved directly or indirectly in the movement <strong>of</strong><br />

goods or in developing strategies and policies for the sector. In the course <strong>of</strong> the study.,<br />

it became clear that the level <strong>of</strong> information which was readily accessible on a regular<br />

basis was very limited. This is made clear in the <strong>Transport</strong> Monitoring Indicator<br />

Framework 10 recently published by MoT. In this framework, the information on the<br />

whole freight task is limited to aggregate estimates <strong>of</strong> the tonne-kms carried by road and<br />

includes nothing on any other modes or on any disaggregation <strong>of</strong> movements by road.<br />

While the current study provides a snapshot <strong>of</strong> the current position for all the major<br />

modes, this needs to be supplemented by regular and more detailed data collection to<br />

ensure that it provides a reliable foundation for on-going future action. We have<br />

therefore made recommendations about the level <strong>of</strong> information which might be<br />

regularly collected and disseminated in order to assist the development <strong>of</strong> an efficient<br />

freight sector.<br />

8 Unpublished research by MoT.<br />

9 Prediction <strong>of</strong> New Zealand‟s <strong>Freight</strong> Growth by 2020, TERNZ 2006.<br />

10 <strong>Transport</strong> Monitoring Indicator Framework 2008 Version 1, MoT.<br />

10

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