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TDP Experience Perth - Tourism Western Australia

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Notably, the direction of the curve after the period of stabilisation (and ultimate<br />

lifecycle of a tourism destination) is open to several possibilities:<br />

• Successful redevelopment of man-made or natural tourism assets could result<br />

in renewed growth and expansion (see curve A).<br />

• Minor modification and adjustment to capacity levels, and continued<br />

protection of resources, could allow continued growth at a much reduced<br />

rate (see curve B).<br />

• A readjustment to meet all capacity levels could create a more stable level of<br />

visitation to be maintained in the longer term after an initial readjustment<br />

downwards (see curve C).<br />

• Continued unsustainable overuse of natural tourism resources, nonreplacement<br />

of aging tourism product and infrastructure, and decreasing<br />

competitiveness relative to other tourism destinations would result in a<br />

marked decline (see curve D).<br />

• The intervention of various shock factors, such as war, disease, major<br />

environmental damage or other catastrophes could result in an immediate<br />

and rapid decline in visitor numbers from which it may be extremely difficult<br />

to recover (see curve E).<br />

Although a consistent evolution of tourism destinations can be placed in a broad<br />

theoretical model such as that proposed by Richard Butler, it must be emphasised<br />

that not all areas experience the stages of the cycle as clearly as others. Specifically,<br />

the shape of the curve must be expected to vary for different areas, reflecting<br />

variations in such factors as the rate of development, numbers of visitors,<br />

accessibility, government policies and numbers of similarly competing areas.<br />

80<br />

<strong>Experience</strong> <strong>Perth</strong><br />

<strong>Tourism</strong> <strong>Western</strong> <strong>Australia</strong> | <strong>Tourism</strong> Development Priorities

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