exotic nuclei structure and reaction noyaux exotiques ... - IPN - IN2P3

toe/cap/y
which energy access inequalities are strongly reduced)
together with the limited amount of energy
consumed per year, require that the 2050 rich populations
have in average an energy consumption 27%
lower than the present consumption of the developed
countries. For poor populations, the mean energy
consumption increases by 75%, but still stays under 1
toe/cap.
In a third step, we evaluate the consequences of fossil
energy consumption limited to 4,2 Gtoe/y in 2050
(reduction by a factor 2 of the world CO 2 emissions).
As done previously for energy consumption, we
choose an “inequality key” “F 1 /F 3 ; F 2 /F 3 ; F 3 /F 3 ”
which allocates a fossil energy (with CO 2 emission)
per capita consumption F 1 , F 2 , F 3 to population
groups P 1 , P 2 , P 3 . Since we consider that rich populations
have the capabilities to develop and use new
sources of energy (more expensive and complex) the
inequality key is more restrictive, namely 2 /1.4 / 1
while the present values are 13/2/1 between rich,
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7
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5
4
3
2
1
0
Europe
North Am.
Ex-URSS
Pacific
Fossile fuel with CO2 emission
Energy without CO2 emission
China
India
Asia others
North Afr.
South Afr.
Africa others
emerging and poor countries. This inequality key,
together with the 4.2 Gtoe/y calculated above, gives
F 1 = 0.6 toe/cap/y , F2= 0.42 toe/cap/y, F= 0.3 toe/
cap/y. These firts results are represented on Figure 1.
Figure 1. Energy consumption in the world in 2000 (left
bar) and 2050 (right bar) for the 12 economic entities. Contribution
of fossil fuels with CO 2 emission and alternative
energy sources.
World energy mix
The fourth step in building the 2050 energy mix will
address the available energy sources in 2050 for the
different sectors of consumption (transportation, industry
heat, heat for domestic and services and electricity)
in order to insure the appropriateness of different
kinds of energy to the specific uses. For each
group P 1 , P 2 , P 3 , the sharing of consumed energy per
sector is based on the present sharing for rich ,
emerging and poor countries respectively. Then we
obtain for 2050, an energy demand for each kind of
need or sector: 5 Gtoe/y for transport, 4 Gtoe/y for
industry, 4 Gtoe/y for domestic and services uses,
and 7 Gtep/year for electricity uses. The question we
address now is: how to respond efficiently to this demand
using the potential of different energy sources?
We consider first the fossil energy with CO 2 emission
mainly devoted to the transportation sector and the
renewable energies devoted to transportation and
heat production: bio fuels, thermal and concentrated
solar energy, and geothermal heat (total of 3,2 Gtoe/
y) . At this stage, the renewable energies are not suf-
Lat. Am.
M-O
ficient to satisfy the needs in both sectors. The heat
produced by fossil energies without CO 2 emissions
and nuclear reactors will contribute to covering the
heat needs. The shortages of energy for transport
and heat production are then transferred to electricity.
The total electricity consumption reaches finally
11.5 Gtoe/y and represents more than 50% of the
total energy production. Thus, the electricity need is
much bigger than the potential of renewable energies
(4Gtoe/y). Concerning the capability of CO 2 sequestration,
we have chosen an optimistic estimate
of 16 Gt/y in 2050, which corresponds to 4.8 Gtoe/y
of fossil energy (electricity and heat). The nuclear
contribution (electricity and heat) to the energy mix
represents a bit less than 5 Gtoe/y and a multiplication
by 8 of the present production. It has to be noticed
that nuclear energy is only allocated to P 1 and
P 2 populations (essentially urban).
This construction leads to a use of electricity for 30%
of the transport needs. Concerning the electricity
generation, the ratio between intermittent electricity
(wind, PV) and switchable electricity (hydraulics, fossil
fuels) reaches almost 50%, which demonstrates
that large R&D efforts that must be made on electricity
storage and grid optimization.
Finally, the deployment of nuclear energy by a factor
8 by 2050 (~ 1750 nuclear reactors of EPR type with
1.65 GW elec , i.e. a multiplication by ~5 of the number
of reactors) will not be uniform in the world since it
will be mainly concentrated in Asia (~2 Gtoe/y) and
in OECD countries (~1.6 Gtoe/y). The per capita nuclear
energy production will be the largest in developed
countries with 1 toe/cap/y which has to be compared
to 1.45 toe/cap/y in France at present. In our
representation, except for sub-Saharan Africa, the
share of nuclear energy is rather homogeneous
since it varies from 20% to 25% in the considered
entities in the world to be compared to 35% in
France at present.
Conclusion
The proposed method to describe the world energy
demand in 2050 is based on simple hypotheses,
which are detailed and argued. This method leads to
a quantitative view on a world energy mix constrained
by a total energy production of 20 Gtoe/y
and the reduction by half of CO 2 emissions. This
work shows that a “20 Gtoe/y” scenario requires a
reduction of the energy consumption of the rich
populations, without insuring a significant increase of
the energy consumption of the poorest. The construction
of the energy mix in 2050 demonstrate that
it is necessary to deploy all new energy sources at
their maximum level of potential: renewable energies,
CO 2 mitigation and nuclear power. These results
can provide an order of magnitude of the objective
each technology could reach in the coming decades,
in the framework of a quite sober energy demand
and an effective struggle against climate
change. It can also be a basis of cross disciplinary
work about energy prospective, where every actor
can understand, contradict, analyze or extend the
hypotheses and results.
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