exotic nuclei structure and reaction noyaux exotiques ... - IPN - IN2P3

Simplified construction of a world energy mix in 2050:
how to make up with climate constraint and human needs?
IPNO Participation: S. Bouneau, S. David, O. Méplan
Collaboration : J.-M. Loiseaux (LPSC Grenoble)
L’étude réalisée résulte d’une réflexion menée sur le paysage énergétique mondial de 2050. Il ne s’agit pas
d’un travail de prospective, mais d’une construction du bouquet énergétique en 2050, basée sur des données
et des hypothèses globales explicitées (consommation d’énergie, répartition mondiale, émission de
CO 2 ). Les résultats permettent de dégager des tendances pertinentes et d’apporter des informations quantitatives
sur le monde énergétique de 2050, du point de vue des besoins, des sources d’énergie et des
grandes régions mondiales. Nous montrons par exemple que doubler la consommation d’énergie au niveau
mondial tout en réduisant les inégalités de consommation entre populations riches et pauvres demandera
aux populations les plus favorisées de réduire leur consommation d’énergie de 30% en moyenne d’ici
2050. Ces efforts ne permettront pas pour autant une augmentation significative de la consommation des
plus pauvres (moins d’un facteur 2). Par ailleurs, répondre à la contrainte climatique conduit à une modification
importante du bouquet énergétique mondial en 2050 : 20% d’énergies fossiles avec émission de
CO 2 (contre 80% aujourd’hui), 25% de fossiles avec captage et séquestration de CO2, 30% d’énergies
renouvelables et 25% de nucléaire. Enfin, nous mettons en évidence un manque de source productrice de
chaleur, qui se traduit par un report massif sur l’électricité dans tous les secteurs de consommation : transport,
industrie et résidentiel/tertiaire.
Introduction
At the world scale, the energy needs are presently
fulfilled for 80% by fossil energies, but by now, it is
well established that anthropogenic green-house
gas emission (GHGE) and mainly CO2 emitted by
fossil fuel use are responsible for climate warming.
Though global warming cannot be prevented, a
significant reduction of GHGE may limit the mean
temperature rise to + 2°C.
Energy consumption is very unequally distributed
in the world. Although the population of rich countries
represents only 20% of the world population,
they consume more than 50% of the total energy
produced. However, the economic development of
some emerging countries such as China and India
allows a part of their population to considerably
raise their standard of living and consequently their
energy consumption. Nevertheless, an important
part of the world population, mainly in poor and
emergent countries and particularly rural populations,
has an extremely low energy consumption
level. In the coming years, the population of today’s
rich countries will not increase while the
population of emergent and poor countries will rise
significantly up to 2050 at least.
The goal of this study is to build a representation of
the world energy demand in 2050 taking into account
in a simple but realistic way all the relevant
parameters on which it depends: population, total
energy consumption, climate constraint, potential
of available energy sources, appropriateness of
these sources to the needs. The initial assumptions
for 2050 are a human population of 9 billion,
a total energy consumption limited to 20 Gtoe/y,
and a cut by a factor 2 of the CO 2 emissions which
Repartition of the world energy consumption requires
a fossil fuel consumption with CO 2 emissions limited
to 4,2 Gtoe/y.
Repartition of the world energy consumption
In order to take into account the large spread of
per capita energy consumption, inside the poor
and developing countries, we choose to divide
their populations into 3 groups called P 1 , P 2 , P 3 ,
corresponding to 3 consumption levels C 1 , C 2 , C 3
(high, medium and low). This approach implies that
C 1 , C 2 , C 3 have the same value everywhere in the
world. The world has been divided in 12 economic
entities. In a first step, the present rich countries’
population is classified in the P 1 group. For the
other entities, the 2050 population distribution between
P 1 , P 2 , P 3 groups is done on the basis of
their present state of development and their level
of urbanisation in 2050.
The second step of our analysis consists in a
quantification of the 3 levels C 1 , C 2 , C 3 of energy
consumption per capita by defining the following
ratios “C 1 /C 3 ; C 2 /C 3 ; C 3 /C 3 ” in 2050. Convinced
that a fair and more equitable access to energy for
the entire world and that a common will to avoid a
climate disruption, are necessary conditions to a
more pacified world able to overcome the energy
and climate challenges, we took the option of reducing
significantly the present disparities. The
“inequality key” “C 1 /C 3 ; C 2 /C 3 ; C 3 /C 3 ” in 2050 has
been chosen to be 4/2/1 in 2050 instead of about
10/2/1 today between rich, emerging and poor
countries. This choice and the above distribution in
P 1 , P 2 , P 3 groups give immediately the following
equation:
P1 C1 P2 C2 P3 C
3
= 20 Gtoe/y
World World World
and C 1 = 3.5 toe/cap/y, C 2 = 1.75toe/cap/y, C 3 =
0.87 toe/cap/y. The inequality key choice (with
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