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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti President George W. Bush, let it be said, is not convinced. Put aside for a mo- among the Shiite religious ment the poor Lebanese. The Syrians parties fighting the Sunnis themselves "deserve a government whose in an increasingly vicious legitimacy is grounded in the consent of civil war. "America has two the people, not brute force;' a White different options;' says Syri- House statement declared last week. Bush an author and political anacalled for a regime in Damascus "that Iyst Sami Moubayed. "Either they deal with Syria, fights corruption, respects the rule of law, while excluding Iran, or guarantees the rights of ail Syrians and vice versa. Dealing with works toward achieving peace in the re- " both is impossible and dealgion:' The coterie around Syrian President ing with neither is also im- Bashar al-Assad wouldn't qualifYon a sin- possible." gle count. ln fact, the hope of sorne But the Iraq Study Group's recommen- analysts in Washington and dations for new strategic approaches to the Tel Aviv is that Syria even- Middle East put dialogue with Damascus tually can be pressured and near the top of the list, aqd a parade ofU.S. persuaded to play a less dissenators, including Democrat John Kerry ruptive role. An analogy and Republican ArIen Specter, already is on might be Libya, which rethe way to Assad's palace for grips and nounced terror, gave up grins. Such is the growing international weapons prograrns and consternation about the Iraq debacle's im- made its peace with the pact that any force for regional stability, West in 2003. But the years even a regime run like Al Capone's Chicago, ofboycotts and internationis likely to be asked for help. Syria, it is be- al isolation that finally lieved, could help calm Iraq by closing its forced Libyan leader borders to insurgents who frequently come dictable as it is complex. But can it work? Muammar Kaddafi to come around were and go with impunity. IfLebanon is not to The Iraq Study Group hinges its rec- imposed only after criminal investigations descend into civilwar, Syria'scooperation is ommendation on one key judgment: "No nailed members of the Libyan regime for critical. Ditto for the occupied territories. country in the region will benefit in the blowing up an airliner over Lockerbie, There's even hope that Damascus can be se- long term from a chaotic Iraq:' Yet as Scotland. Then the workings of a special duced away from Iran, countering its hege- Jonathan Paris points out, Syria thrives on tribunal were key to convicting at least one monic ambitions in the greater Middle the level of unrest that exists right now. "If of culprits and forced the Kaddafi govern- East. "Syria is a key partner;' says Syrian you were Bashar, the one thing you would ment to assume sorne of the responsibility. political scientist Marwan Kabalan, "in ail be afraid ofis regional stability," says Paris, The only hope of marshaling the same these regional issues:' "because then Syria's 19 million people kind of pressure on Syria is to nai! the Assad ln fact, "key spoiler" would be a more would ask why they are ruled by this clique regime in a United Nations-backed tribunal 'III :~~~~~~~~::~~K~~:::; "If the Bush administration fails to engage ~~~e:~~~eir~~~:~;:d Syria, it will continue to sink in a quagmire. '7 regime can't fully control any of those threats, but it can make ail of them worse. Syria's foreign policy is essentially a protection racket. To prevent harm, you pay it off. ln a none-too-veiled threat, an editorial in the government-controlled daily Al Baath wamed last week that if the Bush administration fails to engage Syria, "it will continue to wallow and sink in the quagmire and the situation in the region and the world will continue to be subjected to upheavals and instability:' The price of protection can be money, dialogue and, especially, respect-which lends the dictatorship legitimacy. Lebanese opponents of Syria fear their freedom could be part of the bargain, too. And the Israelis see the Iraq Study Group ready to put the future of the Golan Heights on the table. If a dialogue with Washington finally does begin, the wheeling and dealing could be as unpre- of 15 or so who run the country like it is their own bank." Meanwhile, Assad's supposed toolsthe Sunni radicals of Hamas and the Shiite revolutionaries of Hizbullah-have links to Islamist groups that might someday threaten the Assad regime directly. (It's still a capital crime to be a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which nearly overthrew the Syrian regime in the early 1980s. Yet Hamas is nothing more or less than the Palestinian branch of ,the Brotherhood.) Despite an alliance with the mullahs in Iran that goes back more than a quarter century, Syria's secular regime and Assad's minority Alawite sect, seen as heretical by many Islamic fundamentalists, simply do not have the same interests as Tehran's. ln Iraq, for instance, Damascus is linked mainly to ex-Baathist and Sunni tribal leaders, while Iran's strength is investigating the Valentine's Day massacre of ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri and bystanders in Beirut last year, and the other high-profile killings since. That's what the five Lebanese ministers in the Grand Serail are holding out for. And that is precisely why they've been put under siege by Hizbullah and other Syrian allies trying to destroy altogether the government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. "Political assassination is very, very common in Lebanon;' says Ahmad Fatfat, one of the ministers in the Serail. "We need the tribunal to stop this. If we cannot succeed in this project, it is impossible to preserve our democracy:' Indeed, if they cannot succeed, it may be impossible to preserve the shreds of the Bush administration's policies in the Middle East. But the Assad regime, so good at spoiling, so good at surviving, is likely to go on. • 63
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Gzeti Iran's influence spreading to Afghanistan Dy David Rohde j ISLAM QALA, Afghanistan Two years ago, foreign engineers built a new highway through the desert of western Afghanistan, past this ancient trading post and on to the outside world. Nearby, they strung a high-voltage power line and laid a fiber-optic cable, marked with red posts, that provides telephone and Internet access to the region. The modernization comes with a message. Every 8 to 16 kilometers, or 5 to 10 miles, road signs offer quotations from the Koran. "Forgive us, God," dec1ares one. "God is c1ear to everyone," says another. A graceful mosque rises roadside, with a green glass dome and Koranic inscriptions in blue tile. The style is unmistakably Iranian. AlI of this is fruit ofIran's drive to become a bigger player in Afghanistan, as it exploits new opportunities to spread its influence and ideas farther across the Middle East. The rise of Hezbollah, with Iran's support, has demonstrated the extent of Tehran's sway in Lebanon, and the 1 American toppling of Saddam Hussein has allowed it to expand its influence in Iraq. Iran has been making inroads into Afghanistan, as weIL During the tumultuous 1980s and 1990s, Iran shipped money and arms to groups fighting first the Soviet occupation and later the Taliban government. But since the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban in 2001, Iran has taken advantage of the central government's weakness to pursue a more nuanced strategy: part reconstruction, part education and part propaganda. Iran has distributed its largess, more than $200 million in aIl, mostly here in the west but also in the capital, Kabul. It has set up border posts against the heroin trade, and next year will begin work on new road and construction projects and a rail line linking the countries. ln Kabul, its projects inc1ude a new medical center and a water testing laboratory. Iran's ambassador, Muhammad Reza Bahrami, portrayed his government's activities as neighborly good works, with a certain self-interest. Iran, he said, is eager to avoid repeating the calamities of the last 20 years, when two million Afghan refugees streamed over the border. "Our strategy in Afghanistan is based on security, stability and developing a strong central government," he said. "It not only benefits the Afghan people, it's in our national interest." Still, there are indications of other motives. Iranian radio stations ale broadcasting anti-American propaganda into Afghanistan. Moderate Max Becherer/Polaris, for The New York Times A sign inscribed "God is great" posted on a highway in Afghanista!l built by Iran: ¥ • 1f, Afghan subcontractors building a school as part of the reconstruction effort in Herat, near a Iibrary built by Iran. Shiite leaders in Afghanistan say Tehran is funneling money to conser- /vative Shiite religious schools and former wa,rlords with longstanding ties to Iranian intelligence agencies. And as the dispute over Iran's nuc1ear program has escalated, leading the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, Iranian intelligence activity has increased across Afghanistan, Ameriean and Afghan officiaIs say. This has inc1uded not just surveillance and information collection but the recruitment of a network of pro-Iranian operatives who could attack Ameriean targets in Afghanistan. Last week, in London, British officiais charged the interpreter for NATO's commanding general in Afghanistan with passing secrets to Iran. Discerning Iranian motives, however, is notoriously difficult. Government factions often have competing agendas. Even so, the question of Iran's intentions in Afghanistan has come under a microscope in recent weeks amid de- . bate in Washington over whether to deal with Tehran as part of a possible solution in Iraq. Some Ameriean officiais suggest that Iran's seeming cooperation in Afghanistan may be something of a model for Iraq. So far, even as it declines to talk with the Iranians about Iraq, the Bush administration has adopted a posture of uneasy détente over Afghanistan. American officiais say that they are watching c1osely,and no evidence has emerged of recent arms shipments to Iranian proxies, as it did in Iraq, or of other efforts to destabilize the country. Iran's Shiite leaders appear to be maintaining their historie opposition to the Sunni Taliban, who consider Shiites hereties. Iran, they also say,is failing to gain popular support among Afghans, 80 percent of whom are Sunni Muslims. Of far greater concern, according to Ameriean, European and Afghan officiais, is Pakistan, America's ostensible ally against terrorism. They say the Pakistanis have allowed the Taliban to create a virtual ministate and staging base for suicide attacks just across Afghanistan's eastern border. Suicide attacks have quintupled, to 115thfs yea~ from 23 in 2005, killing more than 200 Afghan civilians. Western diplomats say that, at the very least, Iran's goals in Afghanistan are to hasten the withdrawal of American troops, prevent the Taliban from regaining power and keep the Afghan west firmly under Tehran's sway. "Keep this area stable, but make it friendly ~or them," said a senior Euro- 64
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