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• 6 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 261 • December 2006<br />
Minister’s Dawa party.<br />
While the Sunni Arabs are in<br />
agreement with the report’s<br />
assessment, they are not about the<br />
solutions proposed. They consi<strong>de</strong>r<br />
the i<strong>de</strong>a of involving Syria in the<br />
search for a solution particularly<br />
“positive”. However, the solutions<br />
proposed, “are not up to the analysis<br />
of the situation”, <strong>de</strong>plored the<br />
Ulema’s Association, through its<br />
spokesman Sheikh Mohammed<br />
Bashar al-Fayadh. The same tune<br />
from Falah Shanshal, a Shiite<br />
Member of Parliament of the<br />
Sadrist Bloc: “Iraq is capable of<br />
building its own army without the<br />
help of others”, he retorted.<br />
The ISG’s report invites the US<br />
Administration to <strong>de</strong>velop<br />
diplomatic relations with Syria and<br />
Iran to bring stability to Iraq. It<br />
also advocates direct negotiations<br />
between Israel, Syria, the Lebanon<br />
and the Palestinians, consi<strong>de</strong>ring<br />
that a settlement of the Israeli-Arab<br />
conflict would improve the<br />
situation in Iraq. Thus Syria, on 7<br />
December, reacted favourably to<br />
the Baker-Hamilton report,<br />
welcoming the importance the<br />
document gave to settling the<br />
Israeli0Arab conflict and reiterating<br />
Damascus’ <strong>de</strong>termination<br />
to recover the Golan, annexed by<br />
Israel. According to a leading<br />
official of the Foreign Ministry<br />
speaking off the record, but quoted<br />
off by the Syrian official news<br />
agency, the Iraq Study Group’s<br />
report is “positive since it <strong>de</strong>als with<br />
the role of Iraq’s neighbours in<br />
bringing security and stability to<br />
Iraq”. He explained that Damascus<br />
could help ease the situation in<br />
Iraq in exchange of the return to its<br />
sovereignty of the Golan, occupied<br />
by Israel since 1967. “Syria’s<br />
priority is to totally recover the<br />
occupied Arab Golan Plateau”, he<br />
indicated. The US Presi<strong>de</strong>nt had<br />
replied to the ISG’s suggestion of<br />
negotiating with Syria and Iran<br />
that “the countries that take part in<br />
discussions must not finance<br />
terrorism, must help the young<br />
<strong>de</strong>mocracy to survive and must help<br />
the country’s economy”.<br />
Iran reacted cautiously to the ISG’s<br />
proposals. “The United States’<br />
<strong>de</strong>cision to withdraw from Iraq do<br />
not require negotiations with any<br />
other country of the region”,<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>red, on 7 December the<br />
Iranian Foreign Minister, Mr.<br />
Manushehr Mottaki, on the Al-<br />
Jazzier TV channel. “This report<br />
contains certain important points (…)<br />
it seems that certain aspects of<br />
American policy in Iraq are consi<strong>de</strong>red<br />
to be mistakes” he pointed out.<br />
If the ISG’s conclusions intensify<br />
the pressure on the White House in<br />
favour of reorienting the present<br />
policy in Iraq — already<br />
<strong>de</strong>man<strong>de</strong>d by the American<br />
electors in November — George<br />
Bush is not bound to follow its<br />
recommendations. All the more so<br />
as other options are at present<br />
being studied by the Pentagon, the<br />
State Department and the National<br />
Security Council.<br />
Furthermore, according to a report<br />
of the International Crisis Group<br />
(ICG), published on 19 December,<br />
Iraq is on the point of<br />
“disintegrating”. The ICG consi<strong>de</strong>rs,<br />
in particular, that Prime Minister<br />
Nuri al-Maliki’s National Unity<br />
Government is not representative.<br />
“The country and its institutions are<br />
in danger of sinking into chaos”,<br />
threatening the stability of the<br />
whole region, says in alarm the<br />
Chairman of the ICG, Gareth<br />
Evans, in this report. “The Baker-<br />
Hamilton Commission, and the<br />
renewal it represents of American<br />
policy in Iraq, are, a first important<br />
step, but radically insufficient if we<br />
want to avoid the collapse of Iraq and a<br />
regional war”, the ICG consi<strong>de</strong>rs.<br />
“All the Iraqi political actors<br />
involved in violence must be<br />
brought to the negotiating table<br />
and put un<strong>de</strong>r pressure until they<br />
accept a compromise”, the ICG<br />
stresses. “The Iraqi government<br />
and the security forces cannot be<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>red allies that we support:<br />
they are simply part of the many<br />
part of the many actors in the<br />
conflict”, notes the organisation.<br />
The Baker Commission talks about<br />
a “government of national union<br />
representing the Iraqi people” — “this<br />
is not at all true” according to the<br />
ICG, that proposes “a new<br />
multilateral approach that really puts<br />
pressure on the national actors”.<br />
IRAQI KURDISTAN: A PROVISIONAL AGREEMENT WITH<br />
BAGHDAD ALLOWS NEGOTIATION OF CONTRACTS WITH<br />
FOREIGN INVESTORS<br />
O<br />
n 19 December, Iraqi<br />
lea<strong>de</strong>rs reached a<br />
provisional agreement<br />
regarding a draft law on<br />
the country’s oil<br />
resources, which allow the regions<br />
to negotiate contracts with foreign<br />
investors but leave the last word<br />
with the central government,<br />
according to sources close to the<br />
negotiations. The Kurdistan region,<br />
for its part, has accepted to reexamine<br />
the contracts that it has<br />
already ma<strong>de</strong> with foreign oil<br />
companies regarding its oil fields,<br />
to check their conformity with the<br />
law. Amongst these companies is<br />
the Norwegian DNO.<br />
Iraq has great need of foreign<br />
investment to put back on its feet a<br />
very sick economy that remains