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Revue <strong>de</strong> Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro <strong>de</strong> la Prensa-Basm Ozeti<br />
..December9th 2006<br />
Turkey and the European Union<br />
The ever lengthening road<br />
ISTANBUL<br />
The obstacles in the way of Turkey's membership<br />
more daunting<br />
"FIRST they tied our arms, now they<br />
are going to tie our legs." The words<br />
of a top Turkish officiaI sum up the gloom<br />
in Ankara as European Union lea<strong>de</strong>rs prepare<br />
for next week's summit in Brussels,<br />
where they will once again argue over Turkey.<br />
Whatever the outcome, Turkey's prospects<br />
of being the EU'Sfirst mainly Muslim<br />
member have never seemed so bleak.<br />
Turkey's long-<strong>de</strong>layed membership<br />
talks opened almost 15months ago amid<br />
much fanfare. "HelIo Europe" read one<br />
newspaper headline. But the talks soon<br />
ran into trouble over Turkey's rejection of<br />
the EU'S<strong>de</strong>mand that it fulfil its legal obligation<br />
to open its ports and airports to<br />
traffic from Cyprus (ie, the internationally<br />
recognised Greek-Cypriot republic). The<br />
Turks rebuffed a <strong>de</strong>adline of December<br />
6th, insisting that they will not give way<br />
until the Europeans fulfil their own promise<br />
to end the tra<strong>de</strong> embargo on Turkish<br />
northern Cyprus.<br />
The European Commission has proposed<br />
the suspension of eight of the 35<br />
chapters in the membership talks. This<br />
week the French presi<strong>de</strong>nt,Jacques Chirac,<br />
and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel,<br />
endorsed this plan, and also called for<br />
a full review of Turkey's progress in early<br />
2009. "We don't want to set any kind of ultimatums,"<br />
said Ms Merkel, who wants<br />
Turkey to accept a "privileged partnership",<br />
not full membership. "But we want<br />
the commission to say to us what has been<br />
achieved and how we could proceed."<br />
Late into the week, negotiations continued<br />
un <strong>de</strong>r the Finnish EU presi<strong>de</strong>ncy. A<br />
Turkish offer to open one port and one airport<br />
to Cyprus seems unlikely to work as it<br />
is <strong>de</strong>arly <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt on a reciprocal offer<br />
by the Greek-Cypriots. If no compromise<br />
is found, little progress will be ma<strong>de</strong>. Rela-<br />
of the European Union get ever<br />
tions will worsen if Nicolas Sarkozy becornes<br />
France's presi<strong>de</strong>nt next spring: unlike<br />
Mr Chirac, he is fiercely against Turkish<br />
membership.<br />
Turkey's hopes are now pinned on the<br />
Americans. Presi<strong>de</strong>nt Bush is expected to<br />
embark on a round ôf telephone diplomacy<br />
this week. He may secure a reduction<br />
in the number of frozen chapters.<br />
But regardless of their number, suspen<strong>de</strong>d<br />
chapters -can be reopened only with the<br />
unanimc:l8.s approval of all EU members.<br />
This "leaves the door open for them to impose<br />
further intolerable conditions on us,"<br />
comments the top Turkish official.<br />
Most Turks believe that Turkey's <strong>de</strong>tractors<br />
simply do not want a large, Muslim<br />
country in their midst. Their aim is to wear<br />
down Turkey's resistance and induce it to<br />
walk away. Yet the mildly Islamist prime<br />
minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says he<br />
will not fall into that trap. "Forcing Turkey<br />
to abandon the [negotiating] table would<br />
be a dreadful mistake; Europe, not Turkey<br />
would stand to lose," he said this week. He<br />
ad<strong>de</strong>d that Turkey would pursue its membership<br />
goal with <strong>de</strong>termination and,<br />
moreover, that it had a plan Band C.<br />
Nobody seems to know what such<br />
plans might entail, but government<br />
sources hint that consultations with the EU<br />
over, say, Afghanistan and Iraq, or on<br />
drugs and human trafficking, may be<br />
slowed down. Instead Turkey will try to repair<br />
relations with America that remain<br />
fraught over Iraq, especially over the<br />
increasingly autonomous Kurds in northern<br />
Iraq. It will also build up its role in the<br />
Middle East, the Caucasus and the oil-rich<br />
former Soviet central Asian countries.<br />
Cocking a snook at the Europeans<br />
could help Mr Erdogan's AK party to win<br />
votes in parliamentary elections due next<br />
November. Public support for the EU has<br />
aiready dropped to weIl below 50%,down<br />
from highs of 80% or more two years ago.<br />
Mr Erdogan will also take heart from the<br />
economy, which has grown by an annual<br />
average of 7%since 2001, four times as fast<br />
as the EU'S.The markets seem unfazed by<br />
the rows over EUmembership; the Turkish<br />
lira rose against the dollar this week.<br />
But economic progress hinges on<br />
whether Mr Erdogan sticks with his IMFimposed<br />
reforms. It may also <strong>de</strong>pend on<br />
whether he <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>s to become presi<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
when the incumbent, Ahmet Nec<strong>de</strong>t Sezer,<br />
retires in May. Turkey's militantly secular<br />
generals recoil at the thought of both the<br />
presi<strong>de</strong>ncy and the government being run<br />
by Islamists. How far they might go to stop<br />
this remains a vexing question. The EU<br />
membership talks have provi<strong>de</strong>d the most<br />
effective rein on the generals so far.<br />
Just as ominously, Mr Erdogan's daim<br />
that he will continue with political reforms,<br />
regardless of what happens over<br />
the EU,is beginning to look shaky. Article<br />
301 of the penal co<strong>de</strong>, un<strong>de</strong>r whicl:!Orhan<br />
pamuk, Turkey's best-known novelist, was<br />
prosecuted last year, remains on the<br />
books. Human-rights abuses against the<br />
country's 14m Kurds have been curbed but<br />
by no means stopped altogether.<br />
MeanwhIie, Mr Erdogan's tired assertion<br />
that rejecting Turkey would provoke a<br />
"clash of civilisations" by sending a message<br />
to the Muslim world that the EU is a<br />
Chnstian club, is exaggerated. "Turkey has<br />
no real connection to the Arab world, so<br />
whether Turkey gets into Europe or not<br />
doesn't really matter to the ordinary guy in<br />
Amman or Riyadh," says Yusuf AISharif, a<br />
Palestinian commentator. "There isn't<br />
even an Arab cultural centre in Turkey."Mr<br />
Erdogan's overtures to Iran and Syria (he<br />
vislted both countries thlS week) have less<br />
to do with Muslim solidanty th an wlth a<br />
common <strong>de</strong>sire shared by aIl three to prevent<br />
the emergence of an in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
Kurdish state in Iraq.<br />
ln short, both si<strong>de</strong>s in this dispute need<br />
to regain sorne perspective. Turkey is right<br />
to feel cheated over Cyprus (the Greek-<br />
Cypriots won EU membership even<br />
though they voted in April 2004 against<br />
the UN'SAnnan plan to reunite the island,<br />
whereas the Turkish-Cypriots remain isolated<br />
even though they voted in favour).<br />
But It must also show that it is sincere<br />
about pursuing Eu-inspired reforms. If the<br />
EUis to regain its moral authority with the<br />
mIllions of Turks who long to have a fullblown<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>rn <strong>de</strong>mocracy, it needs to<br />
prove that membership of its club is not<br />
only the best way to achieve that goal-but<br />
also one that is still genuinely on offer.•<br />
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