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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti ..December9th 2006 Turkey and the European Union The ever lengthening road ISTANBUL The obstacles in the way of Turkey's membership more daunting "FIRST they tied our arms, now they are going to tie our legs." The words of a top Turkish officiaI sum up the gloom in Ankara as European Union leaders prepare for next week's summit in Brussels, where they will once again argue over Turkey. Whatever the outcome, Turkey's prospects of being the EU'Sfirst mainly Muslim member have never seemed so bleak. Turkey's long-delayed membership talks opened almost 15months ago amid much fanfare. "HelIo Europe" read one newspaper headline. But the talks soon ran into trouble over Turkey's rejection of the EU'Sdemand that it fulfil its legal obligation to open its ports and airports to traffic from Cyprus (ie, the internationally recognised Greek-Cypriot republic). The Turks rebuffed a deadline of December 6th, insisting that they will not give way until the Europeans fulfil their own promise to end the trade embargo on Turkish northern Cyprus. The European Commission has proposed the suspension of eight of the 35 chapters in the membership talks. This week the French president,Jacques Chirac, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, endorsed this plan, and also called for a full review of Turkey's progress in early 2009. "We don't want to set any kind of ultimatums," said Ms Merkel, who wants Turkey to accept a "privileged partnership", not full membership. "But we want the commission to say to us what has been achieved and how we could proceed." Late into the week, negotiations continued un der the Finnish EU presidency. A Turkish offer to open one port and one airport to Cyprus seems unlikely to work as it is dearly dependent on a reciprocal offer by the Greek-Cypriots. If no compromise is found, little progress will be made. Rela- of the European Union get ever tions will worsen if Nicolas Sarkozy becornes France's president next spring: unlike Mr Chirac, he is fiercely against Turkish membership. Turkey's hopes are now pinned on the Americans. President Bush is expected to embark on a round ôf telephone diplomacy this week. He may secure a reduction in the number of frozen chapters. But regardless of their number, suspended chapters -can be reopened only with the unanimc:l8.s approval of all EU members. This "leaves the door open for them to impose further intolerable conditions on us," comments the top Turkish official. Most Turks believe that Turkey's detractors simply do not want a large, Muslim country in their midst. Their aim is to wear down Turkey's resistance and induce it to walk away. Yet the mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says he will not fall into that trap. "Forcing Turkey to abandon the [negotiating] table would be a dreadful mistake; Europe, not Turkey would stand to lose," he said this week. He added that Turkey would pursue its membership goal with determination and, moreover, that it had a plan Band C. Nobody seems to know what such plans might entail, but government sources hint that consultations with the EU over, say, Afghanistan and Iraq, or on drugs and human trafficking, may be slowed down. Instead Turkey will try to repair relations with America that remain fraught over Iraq, especially over the increasingly autonomous Kurds in northern Iraq. It will also build up its role in the Middle East, the Caucasus and the oil-rich former Soviet central Asian countries. Cocking a snook at the Europeans could help Mr Erdogan's AK party to win votes in parliamentary elections due next November. Public support for the EU has aiready dropped to weIl below 50%,down from highs of 80% or more two years ago. Mr Erdogan will also take heart from the economy, which has grown by an annual average of 7%since 2001, four times as fast as the EU'S.The markets seem unfazed by the rows over EUmembership; the Turkish lira rose against the dollar this week. But economic progress hinges on whether Mr Erdogan sticks with his IMFimposed reforms. It may also depend on whether he decides to become president when the incumbent, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, retires in May. Turkey's militantly secular generals recoil at the thought of both the presidency and the government being run by Islamists. How far they might go to stop this remains a vexing question. The EU membership talks have provided the most effective rein on the generals so far. Just as ominously, Mr Erdogan's daim that he will continue with political reforms, regardless of what happens over the EU,is beginning to look shaky. Article 301 of the penal code, under whicl:!Orhan pamuk, Turkey's best-known novelist, was prosecuted last year, remains on the books. Human-rights abuses against the country's 14m Kurds have been curbed but by no means stopped altogether. MeanwhIie, Mr Erdogan's tired assertion that rejecting Turkey would provoke a "clash of civilisations" by sending a message to the Muslim world that the EU is a Chnstian club, is exaggerated. "Turkey has no real connection to the Arab world, so whether Turkey gets into Europe or not doesn't really matter to the ordinary guy in Amman or Riyadh," says Yusuf AISharif, a Palestinian commentator. "There isn't even an Arab cultural centre in Turkey."Mr Erdogan's overtures to Iran and Syria (he vislted both countries thlS week) have less to do with Muslim solidanty th an wlth a common desire shared by aIl three to prevent the emergence of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq. ln short, both sides in this dispute need to regain sorne perspective. Turkey is right to feel cheated over Cyprus (the Greek- Cypriots won EU membership even though they voted in April 2004 against the UN'SAnnan plan to reunite the island, whereas the Turkish-Cypriots remain isolated even though they voted in favour). But It must also show that it is sincere about pursuing Eu-inspired reforms. If the EUis to regain its moral authority with the mIllions of Turks who long to have a fullblown modern democracy, it needs to prove that membership of its club is not only the best way to achieve that goal-but also one that is still genuinely on offer.• 19
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti Rtralb;':L~ribttnt December 9-10, 2006 Iraqis near a draft law on dividing oil revenue Measure, if pa~sed, could help narrow political divisions By Edward Wong BAGHDAD: A group of Iraqi politicians and ministers is close to finishing a draft of a national oillaw that, if enacted, would be the most significant legislation passed by the government so far and help narrow some of the country's major politieal schisms, Iraqi and American officiaIs say. The officiaIs said the authors have reached agreement on one of the most divisive issues in Iraq: How revenues from the oil industry should be distributed The working draft ca11s for the central govemment in Baghdad to collect oil revenues and distribute them to provinces or regions based on population, the officiaIs say.The measure could calm some Sunni Arabs who oppose regional autonomy because of fears that Sunnis would be exc1uded from a fair share of oil wealth, whieh is concentrated in Shiite and Kurdish regions. The law could also encourage foreign investment in the oil industry, although security would remain a major concem for companies operating outside the relatively safe region of Iraqi Kurdistan. The national oillaw lies at the heart of debates about the future ofIraq, particularly the issue of having a strong central govemment or robust regional governments. The question of oil has also exacerbated sectarian tensions, because of the worries of Sunni Arabs, who are leading the insurgency, over the potentiaUy lopsided distribution of oil wealth. General George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander here, and Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador, have urged Iraqi politicians to put the oillaw at the top of their agendas, saying it must be passed before the year's end The report released this week by the Iraq Study Group said an equitable oil law was a necessary cornerstone to the process of national reconciliation, and thus to endin~ the war. A final stieking point over approval of oil contracts remains, so there is a chance that parts of the working draft could be scrapped. But a deal could be reached within days, according to officiaIs involved in the writing. The law would then go to the 'cabinet and Parliament for approval. The Kurds, who already have an autonomous region in the north, had put up a fight to have regional govemments co11ect and redistribute oil revenues, partieularly ones from oil fields yet to be exploited. They had also proposed that revenues be shared among the regions based on both population and crimes committed against people under Saddam Hussein's rule. That would give the Kurds and Shiites a share of the oil wealth larger than the proportions of their populations. But the Kurds on the drafting committee have shelved those demands, said Barham Salih, a deputy prime minister who is a Kurd and chairman of the committee. "Revenue sharing is an accepted principle by a11 the constituent elements of the Iraqi government, including the Kurds, and that is the unifying element that we're a11hoping for in the oillaw," Salih said in an interview. An Ameriean officiaI here who has tracked the negotiations said the Kurds . were willing to make concessions because a national oil law could attract more foreign oil companies to exploration and development in Kurdistan. A large fQreign oil company would have more confidence in signing a contract with the Kurds if the company were to operate under the law of a sovereign country rather than just the law of an autonomous region, the officiaI said on the condition of anonymity. Furthermore, the officiaI said, some Kurdish leaders believe that the concessions are a worthwhile priee to pay for having a stake in the much larger revenue pool of the entire country's oil industry. The southem fields of Basra accounted for 85 percent of total Iraqi crude production last year, partIy because northem production was hampered by insurgent sabotage. The south has an estimated 65percent of the country's 115billion barrels of proven reserves. But the Kurds are still holding out on the issue of oil contracts. They insist that the central govemment should not have final approval over contracts signed by the regions to develop future oil fields, Ameriean and Iraqi officiaIs said. The Kurds, who have recentIy discovered two new fields in the north after signing exploration contracts with a Turkish company and a Norwegian company, argue that the Constitution guarantees the regions absolute rights over such contracts. "There are those among us who say we cannot go back to the former days of centralization, which were not conducive to good business practice and to the idea of federalism that is enshrined in the Constitution," Salih said. OfficiaIs met Thursday night to try to resolve the issue, but could not reach an agreement. The committee includes politicians and ministers representing the major Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish blocs in government. A possible compromise floated by the Kurds is to aUow a proposed body ca11ed the Federal Petroleum Council, whose mission would be to set oil policy, to reject a regional contract only if it can mus ter a two-thirds vote, and only if the contract does not meet very specific criteria. "The Kurds are afraid that if they left the contracting up to the central govemment rather than themselves, the center might defer contracts," said the Ameriean who is tracking the law. "For example, the govemment might find it easier to contract for production in the south or develop only the fields there." As for revenue distribution by population, the American officiaI said a national census expected to be taken next year should determine the share of revenue that goes to each province or region. But the proposed census and any talk of demographies are volatile issues here - Sunni Arabs often claim they are at least 60 percent of the population, not the 20 percent that is often cited, and so have the right to rule over the Shiites ana. Kurds. The Shiites are generaUy estimated to be 60 percent of the population, and the Kurds 20 percent. If doing a census next year is too politically fraught, or if security conditions prevent it, then revenue percentage could be determined by the household counts recorded in roUs used by Saddam Hussein's govemment to distribute rations in the 1990s. 20
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