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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti Newsweek -, ZeynoBaran DECEMBER 4, 2006 TheComing Coup d'Etat? YURKEY IS A HAUNTED LAND. TOO OITEN lN ITS HISTORY, the past has been prologue. It may be so again. Almost 10 years ago, the Thrkish military ousted a popularly elected Islamist prime minister. The circumstances that produced that coup are re-emerging today. Once again, an Islamist is in power. Once again, the generals are muttering angrily about how his government is undermining the secular state-the foundation of modem Thrkey. As 1rate it, the chances of a military coup in Thrkey occurring in 2007 are roughly 50-50. 1saw the last one coming, thanks to a conversation with a senior military officer not long before the events ofFebruary 1997."1asked the Iranian generals after the 1979 revolution why they had done nothing to stop it. By the time they realized how far the Islamists had come, they replied, it was too late," he told me. "We will never let that happen in Thrkey." Indeed, this very principle is enshrined in the bylaws of the Thrkish General Staff, which declare that the military is "the sole protector" ofThrkish secular democracy and of the "principles of Ataturk." And so it is now. Though most Thrks agree that Prime Minister Recep Thyyip Erdogan is more moderate than his ousted predecessor, Necmettin Erbakan, he is nonetheless an Islamist. The outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer publicly wams that Erdogan's govemment is broadening its fundamentalist platform day by day, and challenging the basic principles of secularism as defined in the Thrkish constitution. Pointedly, Sezer reminds the Thrkish armed forces of their pledge to serve as its guardians. The hawkish new chief of the General Staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, echoes that theme. ln a speech at the opening of the academic year at the Thrkish War Academyon Oct. 2, he asked: "Are there not people in Thrkey saying that secularism should be redefined? Aren't those people occupying the highest seats of the state? Isn't the ideology of Ataturk under attack?" Buyukanit went on to declare that an affirmative answer to any of these questions would confirm that Thrkey is threatened with "Islamist fundamentalism." ln recent weeks 1have spoken with Thrkey's most senior officers. AlI made MAN lN THE MIDDLE: Erdogan and the brass state and mosque are separated and in which freedom of (as weil as freedom from) religion is guaranteed for all. The Thrkish military is especially wary ofhow the EU is coping with its own Islamic problem. European govemments are reaching out to Islamists, ostensibly in order to transform them into allies against domestic terrorism. That may work in the short-run, Thrkish critics say. But a similar strategy would be intolerable to a majority ofThrks, who fear that once the gates open to "moderate" Islamists, more radical forces will enter and take over. With Thrkey and the EU so sharply diverging, the danger is that the Thrkish military, supported as in 1997 by other secularist groups, will no longer fee! bound by the need to keep Thrkey on its European path. And this time, unlike the past, the United States is in no position to restrain them. That's partIy because of Iraq, and Thrkey's unhappiness with what it sees as Washington's kid-glove treatment of Kurdish terrorists operating out of northem Kurdistan, and partIy because of its embrace ofErdogan, most literally Once again, the generals are muttering angrily about how the government is undermining the secular state-and Turkey. clear that, while they would not want to see an interruption in democracy, the military may soon have to step in to protect secularism, without which there cannot be democracy in a majority Muslim country. These are no-nonsense people who mean when he met George w: Bush the same day that Buyukanit made his remarks in Thrkey. The United States opposed the 1997 coup, and it will do so again. But as one senior Thrkish official recently put it: "If there were a coup, what would the o.S. what they say. do-enact sanctions against Thrkey?" Why is this happening? Chiefly because of the European Union. Never mind To be sure, the military may exert its influence without resorting to force. And if a Cyprus, or the new human-rights laws coup were to happen, it would not necessarily Thrkey has willingly passed under European pressure. The real problem is the EU's core demand: more civilian control over the military. That, senior officers say, translate to a nondemocratic Thrkey. More likely, it would simply mean the end ofThrkey's CUITent"Islamist experiment" and a retum to a more conservative govemment would inevitably produce an Islamic -stalwartly secular, yes, but a Thrkey. As they see it, the nation simply cannot afford to follow the EU on issues that would theoretically ensure, but in reality democracy nonetheless. Ironically, this Thrkey might ultimately be seen to be a better member of Europe than today's. endanger, its future as a secular democracy-that is, a country in which BARANis a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute. 5
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti DECEMBER 4. 2006 Ofthe ,, l' J 4 \~ i:;JJJ;~f.,;m"'Iraq { 1F"'.g .... ;o, • - ':.'~";';;:"~E'WAYTO UNDERSTAND ,.Moqtada al-Sadr is to think ofhim às a young Mafia don. He aims for ,~~~bility, and is willing to kill Todt. Yetthe extent ofhis power ..b~'i-!!~'(,.N'" -" " ':J.' ls»'t obvious to the untrained eye. ....,.,..;s~:h~ ~,,~""" "'}'" )i"~~ , , ~~~~aS:ù~~sfa.zarmy or policeforce, and the Mah~i Annygumnen he employs have no tanks Qttl,ircraft.Y'éU cotùd mistake him-at your peril-:-f~r*:èOmmo~thug or gang leader. And if ,h~ or h1~j>èoplewere to kill YOll for Y0uf igno- ,rari'Ge, '\1~~uldn't daim credit. But the mes- (~:~qjl@'9,~clear to those who understand 'tlle:brutaUanguageofthe lraqi Street. Ameri~h sbldiers who patrol Sadr's turfin l}ll)tJ1~a~hfta({têtand. ,Theycan spot his men. "Tnéy'lqq){ like thêy're pulling security;' says ~U R.rtHartley, a 25-year-oldwho plays '- cat and mouse with the Mahdi Army in the Iraqi capitaL The Sadrists use children and young men as lookouts. When GIs get out SUNW AND SHIITE of their Humvces to patrol on foot, one of the watchcrs will fly a kite, or releasc a POPulATION. 2006 f10ck of pigeons. Some of Sadr's people have even infiltrated top ranks of the Iraqi lN THE MIDDLE EAST police. CapL Tom Kapla, 29, says he knows who they are: "They look at you, and you can tell they want to kill you." Shiile Sadr is a unique force in Iraq: a leader 37.5% Sunni from the majority Shiites who has resisted 62.5% i\merican occupation from the start. He's a populist, a nationalist and an Islamic radical rolled into one, Part ofhis power is simply Total 253 million GLOBALLY that he's powerful. Large numbers of impoverished Shiites view Sadr as their guardian- the one leader who is willing not just to stand up for them but to strike back on their behalf. "People count on the militias," says Lieutenant Hartley, who deals with Sadr's thugs on a regular basis, "It's like the mob-they keep people safe," The longer Sadr has survived, the Total: 1,385 billion greater his prestige has grOWI1.lraqis and foreigners who meet him are impressed by Oil Revenues, 2005 the transformation. He's more diplomatie ln $ billions. and eommands more respect, He used to _Sa_ud_1 A_rab!~!!!1~~~ greet visitors at his Najaf office sitting on pillows on the £loor.Now he has a couch set. Iran --"
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