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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti
Newsweek -,
ZeynoBaran
DECEMBER 4, 2006
TheComing
Coup d'Etat?
YURKEY IS A HAUNTED LAND. TOO OITEN lN ITS HISTORY,
the past has been prologue. It may be so again. Almost 10 years
ago, the Thrkish military ousted a popularly elected Islamist
prime minister. The circumstances that produced that coup are
re-emerging today. Once again, an Islamist is in power. Once again, the
generals are muttering angrily about how his government is undermining
the secular state-the foundation of
modem Thrkey. As 1rate it, the chances of
a military coup in Thrkey occurring in
2007 are roughly 50-50.
1saw the last one coming, thanks to a
conversation with a senior military officer
not long before the events ofFebruary
1997."1asked the Iranian generals after
the 1979 revolution why they had done
nothing to stop it. By the time they realized
how far the Islamists had come, they
replied, it was too late," he told me. "We
will never let that happen in Thrkey." Indeed,
this very principle is enshrined in
the bylaws of the Thrkish General Staff,
which declare that the military is "the sole
protector" ofThrkish secular democracy
and of the "principles of Ataturk."
And so it is now. Though most Thrks
agree that Prime Minister Recep Thyyip
Erdogan is more moderate than his ousted
predecessor, Necmettin Erbakan, he is
nonetheless an Islamist. The outgoing
president Ahmet Necdet Sezer publicly
wams that Erdogan's govemment is
broadening its fundamentalist platform
day by day, and challenging the basic
principles of secularism as defined in the
Thrkish constitution. Pointedly, Sezer reminds
the Thrkish armed forces of their
pledge to serve as its guardians.
The hawkish new chief of the General
Staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, echoes that
theme. ln a speech at the opening of the
academic year at the Thrkish War Academyon
Oct. 2, he asked: "Are there not people
in Thrkey saying that secularism
should be redefined? Aren't those people
occupying the highest seats of the state?
Isn't the ideology of Ataturk under attack?"
Buyukanit went on to declare that an affirmative
answer to any of these questions
would confirm that Thrkey is threatened
with "Islamist fundamentalism."
ln recent weeks 1have spoken with
Thrkey's most senior officers. AlI made
MAN lN THE MIDDLE: Erdogan and the brass
state and mosque are separated and in
which freedom of (as weil as freedom
from) religion is guaranteed for all.
The Thrkish military is especially wary
ofhow the EU is coping with its own Islamic
problem. European govemments
are reaching out to Islamists, ostensibly in
order to transform them into allies against
domestic terrorism. That may work in the
short-run, Thrkish critics say. But a similar
strategy would be intolerable to a majority
ofThrks, who fear that once the
gates open to "moderate" Islamists, more
radical forces will enter and take over.
With Thrkey and the EU so sharply diverging,
the danger is that the Thrkish
military, supported as in 1997 by other
secularist groups, will no longer fee!
bound by the need to keep Thrkey on its
European path. And this time, unlike the
past, the United States is in no position to
restrain them. That's partIy because of
Iraq, and Thrkey's unhappiness with what
it sees as Washington's kid-glove treatment
of Kurdish terrorists operating out
of northem Kurdistan, and partIy because
of its embrace ofErdogan, most literally
Once again, the generals are muttering
angrily about how the government is
undermining the secular state-and Turkey.
clear that, while they would not want to
see an interruption in democracy, the military
may soon have to step in to protect
secularism, without which there cannot be
democracy in a majority Muslim country.
These are no-nonsense people who mean
when he met George w: Bush the same
day that Buyukanit made his remarks in
Thrkey. The United States opposed the
1997 coup, and it will do so again. But as
one senior Thrkish official recently put it:
"If there were a coup, what would the o.S.
what they say.
do-enact sanctions against Thrkey?"
Why is this happening? Chiefly because
of the European Union. Never mind
To be sure, the military may exert its influence
without resorting to force. And if a
Cyprus, or the new human-rights laws coup were to happen, it would not necessarily
Thrkey has willingly passed under European
pressure. The real problem is the
EU's core demand: more civilian control
over the military. That, senior officers say,
translate to a nondemocratic Thrkey.
More likely, it would simply mean the end
ofThrkey's CUITent"Islamist experiment"
and a retum to a more conservative govemment
would inevitably produce an Islamic
-stalwartly secular, yes, but a
Thrkey. As they see it, the nation simply
cannot afford to follow the EU on issues
that would theoretically ensure, but in reality
democracy nonetheless. Ironically, this
Thrkey might ultimately be seen to be a
better member of Europe than today's.
endanger, its future as a secular
democracy-that is, a country in which BARANis a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute.
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