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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti Blood, tears and still no victory BAGHDAD Mter meeting "the right guy" for Iraq, George Bush mocks the idea of a graceful exit GEORGEBUSH returned to the Middle East this week a diminished figure. At home he has been thumped by the voters. ln Iraq his dreams of an example-setting democracy have trickled away in blood. For aIl the brave words he exchanged with Iraq's prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, in Amman atmid-week, it is widely assumed that his real aim now is simply to arrange a way for America to leave Iraq as soon as it decently canoOnly th en would the Republicans have a chance of retaining the White House in 2008. And only after it has left Iraq will America be able to restore its tattered influence in the wider Middle East. Such, at any rate, is the conventional wisdom. But is it correct? And did anyone tell Mr Bush? The president certainly faces a daunting array of problems in the region. ln this special section we look at four of them: actual civil war in Iraq, potential civil war in Lebanon, the stalemate in Palestine and the hostility of an Iran that seems intent on acquiring nudear weapons. And yet despite aIl that has gone wrong in Iraq, America remains by far the strongest external power in the Middle East-and for the next two years Mr Bush will remain its president. On his way to Amman, Mr Bush did not talk as if he feIt like a weakling. He insisted at a NATO summit in Riga that American troops would not leave the battlefield until the mission in Iraq was complete. And after meeting Mr Maliki in Amman, he promised again that the troops would stay just as long as Iraq's government wanted them to. Liberty had to prevail in the Middle East, the president dedaimed, "and that's why this business about graceful exit simply has no realism to it at all." Realism is in the eye of the beholder. The fact that Mr Bush met Mr Maliki inJordan's capital rather th an in Baghdad highlights how anarchic Iraq has become. Most ofIraq's politicians daim to want the same thing America wants: a united, non-sectarian state and an end to the violence that has killed tens of thousands in the past year alone. But with a diffuse network of Sunni guerrillas pitted against equally disorganised Shia militias, nobody has the authority to deliver. The governments that are party to the conflict, in Iraq and beyond, are several steps removed from the actual killing: aIl they can do is to cajole others to cajole the armed groups. Mr Maliki succeeded in pressing Mr Bush to allow more Iraqi soldiers to come under his direct control. Atpresent most of them answer to the American chain of commando But this will not have a huge impact on the ground. Building up the Iraqi army, which suffers badly from illdiscipline and sectarian tensions but still appears to respond, more or less, to the prime minister's orders, is taking time. "It's not easy for a military to evolve from ground zero," Mr Bush conceded. Another basic problem is the domestic political weakness of Mr Maliki. After their meeting, Mr Bush said that the Shia prime minister was "the right guy" for Iraq and that it was in America's interest to help him. Privately, however, the Americans are increasingly unhappy about supporting a government that does not appear to be making enough effort to restrain Shia militias and reach out to the Sunnis Behind the scenes, Mr Bush probably tried to encourage Mr Maliki to detach himself from Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia deric whose followers are believed to be responsible for a large share of the sectarian killing. Mr Maliki, however, needs Mr Sadr, who is one of the few leaders to have any influence over the Shia sectarian gangs, most of which daim association with his Mahdi Army but in practice operate autonomously. The young firebrand does appear to be doing a bit to restrain his more out-of-control followers. Before the summit, the New Yorh Times ~~ 3
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti ~ published a leaked memo written by Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush's national security adviser, saying of Mr Maliki that he "wanted to be strong but was having difficulty figuring out how to do so". The memo emphasised Mr Maliki's need to put sorne distance between himself and Mr Sadr. Mr Sadr is meanwhile putting pressure on Mr Maliki to distance himself from the Americans. After a triple carbombing in the Mahdi Army's east Baghdad support base of Sadr City killed more than 200 people last week, Sadrist officiais said that the Americans were primarily to blame for failing to provide security. They threatened to pull out of the government if Mr Maliki went through with his meeting with Mr Bush, though in the event, the Sadrists merely "suspended participation", a good step short of a full walk-out. ln Washington, debate is transfixed on the report expected next week from the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan committee promising sagacious advice on how America can best extract itself from the quagmire (see page 45). One much-Ieaked idea is said to be for Amencan talks with Iran and Syria about how they could help calm Iraq, perhaps in the context of a regional peace conference that would touch on Palestme too. But Iran and Syria do not feel they need America's invitation to become involved. Syria established formai ties with Baghdad last week after a break of 25 years. This week, Iraq's president visited Tehran (see next story) while Mr Maliki was packing for Amman. Iraq's neighbours have thelr own mterest in limiting the chaos. That does not make them eager to help America. And nor did Mr Bush say anything in Amman to suggest that he is in the market for that "graceful exit".• The Economist December2nd 2006 Iran and America What hope of a grand bargain? Two countries, never in tune PaR close to three decades America and Iran have had little to say to each other officially except by megaphone. Now George Bush's Democratic critics want him to talk to both Iran and Syria to help find a way out of Iraq. Iran's fiery president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was this week hosting his Iraqi counterpart,]alai Talabani, in Tehran, certainly pretends to the role of regional power-broker: he says America should get out of Iraq. But Iran is not only a player in Iraq's violent politics. It also arms Hizbullah in its face-off with Israel, and funnels cash to militant Palestinian factions, including Hamas. It supports Syria's meddling in Lebanon, and continues to defy UN Security Council demands that it suspend the most dangerous bits of its nuclear programme. What to do about Iran divides the Bush administration in part because the stakes are so high. Mr Ahmadinejad's virulent rhetoric, his desire to see Israel "wiped from the map" and his bid for wider Muslim leadership make an Iranian bomb a nightmare for America, Israel and a Europe soon to be in range of Iran's mIssiles. Sorne Iraman officiais hint that they might consider helping in Iraq only if pressure on the nuc1ear programme is lifted. Americans debate whether a "grand bargam" mlght bury the hatchet. The idea would be to end Iran's support for terransm and c1earup nuc1ear suspicIOns by restonng relatIons, Improving political and trade ties and addressing Iran's security concerns. The trouble is, Iran's interests seldom chime with America's. A bid by sorne in Iran's leadership to open a dIalogue after America's invasion of Iraq in 2003 was rebuffed by the Bush admmlstratIon, whose loudest voices were for "regime change". A missed opportunity? Iran's continued arming of anti- Israeli terrorists, and its refusai to hand over members of al-Qaeda, supposed1y under "house arrest" in Iran but suspected of having planned further attacks, helped kill the proposed talks. Iran's ruling factIOns are likewise divided over how, or whether, to deal with America. Mr Bush's predicament in Iraq has emboldened the hardliners. For now, Iran appears not to want serious talks. ln an effort to strengthen the hand of European diplomats trying to talk Iran out of ItSnuclear ambitions, Mr Bush last year agreed to a package of trade and other incentives, inc1udmg sorne advanced nuclear technology. ln May this year he said America would take part in negotiations, once Iran suspended its suspect nuclear ac- Iraq's president meets Iran's tivities. Each time he took a step towards Iran, it stepped up its nuc1ear work. An offer from America's ambassador m Baghdad to discuss ways of quellmg the violence in Iraq was likewise spurned. With his coffers full of oil money, and Europeans dependent on his oil, Mr Ahmadinejad is confident he can ride out any sanctions. He boasts that with America tied down in Iraq, it is in no position either to try a mihtary strike against Iran's nuc1earfacilities or assist an Israeli one. That could prove a miscalculation. America has been gambling on a diplomatic solution to the nuc1ear issue, with sorne in the administration hoping other talks might follow. But Mr Bush insists that, despite Iraq, ail options are open. ail, meanwhile, is off its peak and increasing Saudi capacity could soon cope with a threatened Iranian oil eut-off. The extent of Iran's military support for Hizbullah in its war with Israel earIier this year alarmed Arab "neighbours. And at home, the economy needs the investrnent that Mr Ahmadinejad's threats scare away. Iran can miss opportunities too .• 4
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