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• 8 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 261 • December 2006 expected to take at least 10 to 15 years). They also decided not to finalise any other chapter so long as Turkey fails to accept to open its sea and air ports to Greek Cypriot traffic — its refusal on this point being the source of the sanction by the 25. They also found a compromise “if necessary” for the annual evaluations till 2009 of such progress as Turkey may have made. Finally, they agreed to “thaw out” the suspended chapters “at any moment” in the event of Turkish progress. On December 13, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, described the freezing of negotiations as “a credible and equitable decision”. This decision “taken unanimously by the Foreign Ministers of the E.U. countries, is a credible and equitable decision because it (the E.U.) sends a very strong signal to the Turks — that obligations must be observed”, was his analysis. “It is a strong signal, but a signal that is not intended to close the door on Turkey. It is not only a matter of not opening the eight chapters, but of not finalising any of the 35 chapters until Turkey respects its obligations”, he pointed out. In reaction, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, denounced an “injustice”. “Despite all our good will, the decision of the E.U. Council of Ministers is, unfortunately an unjust one”, he declared to his Justice and Development Party’s Parliamentary group. “Relations between the E.U. and Turkey are going through a harsh trial, despite all our efforts to resolve the blockage”, Mr. Erdogan added. The Turkish Prime Minister nevertheless declared that Turkey was determined to continue putting into practice the reforms needed for its entry into the European Union. “In the coming period, we know full well that we have to carry out our reforms with the same determination” he pointed out. For his part, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, deplored “the lack of vision” of his European opposite numbers. As for the Turkish press, the present situation is not the worst scenario since the 25 are agreed to unfreeze the chapters in the event of Turkish progress. “The European train has braked” headlined the daily Radikal, while for Zaman (moderate Islamic) “the E.U. train is continuing on its way”. The Turkish authorities refuse to allow ships or planes to enter their sea or airports that come from the Cyprus Republic, which occupies the Greek part of the island, divided since the Turkish invasion in 1974. They demand that the E.U. first end the economic isolation of the “Turkish Republic of North Cyprus” — that is recognised by Ankara only. TEHERAN: THE FIRST ELECTORAL SETBACK FOR MAHMUD AHMEDINJAD A ccording to the final results made public on 21 December by the Iranian Ministry of the Interior, the opponents of the Iranian President have taken the lead in the municipal elections and in the Assembly of Experts, thus making a first electoral setback for Mahmud Ahmedinjad. The electors had top elect over 113,000 local councillors out of 235,000 candidates. Overall, the participation in these elections was about 60%, that is, 26 million of 46.5 million Iranian electors, according to the government. The two previous local elections in Iran’s history, following their being set up in 1999 by the then president Mohammed Khatami, had drawn between 50% and 55% to the polls. However, four years ago less than 12% had taken part in the Teheran municipal elections. According to the final results, the winners were essentially “moderate conservatives” opposed to the present very radical President, followed by reformers. These results may well embarrass Mahmud Ahmedinjad, whose anti- Israeli rhetoric and inflexible stand on the nuclear issue have provoked condemnation in the West. The two polls on 15 December were a test for President Ahmedinjad, who has already lost the support of many conservatives, who considered that he was spending too much time in confrontations with the West at the expense of the economic question. The Iranian President, for whom these elections were considered to be a first test of popularity, since taking office in 2005, avoided any fundamental analysis of these first results. Mr. Ahmedinjad simply declared: “The people have won”. In Teheran, supporters of President Mahmud Ahmedinjad, former Mayor of the city, where he built up his popularity, arrived last in the municipal elections, behind both the conservatives and the reformers, according to the State television. Four “reformist” candidates are also due to join the Council, whereas the reforming camp, which had controlled the municipality, was completely eliminated at the 2003 elections. Only two candidates of the ultraconservative “The good odour of service” list were amongst the first fifteen. One of these was the
n° 261 • December 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 9• President’s sister, Parvine Ahmedinjad, who was placed 10th. The second candidate came 14th. Several Iranian women came at the top in several important provincial cities. This was particularly the case in Shiraz (Southern Iran), with a 25-year-old student, Fatemeh Hushmand, close to the reformists, and also in Arak (Centre) and Ardebil (Northwest). Regarding the elections to the Assembly of Experts, a body of 86 clerics responsible for watching over the Supreme Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the presidents opponents were also very much in the lead. Former President Hashemi Rasfanjani, beaten by Mr. Ahmedinjad in the 2005 presidential elections, was easily elected. On the other hand, his main rival, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, generally seen as Mahmud Ahmadinjad’s spiritual mentor, only just managed to get elected. The latter’s list, called “The experts of the Theological Schools and Universities” failed completely in the Holy City of Mashhad. The Assembly, where the supporters of Ayatollah Mezbbah Yazdi will only be a handful, remains dominated by the “Association of Fighting Clergy”, the conservative block loyal to the Supreme Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The electiosn for the Assembly of Experts took place at provincial level in each proivince. In Teheran Province, there were 16 seats. The candidates chose in which one of the 30 provinces they wanted to stand. Teheran draws the most eminent public figures. During the previous election for this body, in 1998, the electoral turnout was 42.5 %. This time, its being held at the same time as the municipals encouraged the greater turn out. Otherwise, the Iranian authorities have blocked access to the web site for sharing videos on line, YouTube.com. The free press organisation Reporters sans Frontières expressed its concern at this measure, that it perceived as an intensification of Internet censorship by the regime. Net surfers who tried to log on to this site were greeted by the following message: “On the basis of the laws of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this site is not authorised”. This same explanation also appears in the place of sites that are pornographic or run by the country’s political opposition groups. The Iranian government regularly blocks Web sites and blogs, and this banning message has been appearing more and more over the last year. It is mainly used to counter messages from opposition groups, but also Iranian pop music clips that YouTube.com puts on line. According to Reporters sans Frontières, the New York Times Web site is also blocked, as is the English language version of the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. The Iranian authorities refuse to discuss the matter. Reporters sans Frontières also recalls that the Iranian authorities banned broadband access to the news from the Western in October. The authorities deny these news items. GEORGE BUSH CONSULTS WITH THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT’S COALITION PARTNERS TO FORM A MODERATE BLOCK WHILE THE PRIME MINISTER LAUNCHES A NATIONAL RECONCILIATION CONFERENCE IN BAGHDAD B ecause of the persistent discontent at the failure to suppress the violence, the principal partners of the coalition governing Iraq are examining, in the wings, ways of getting rid of Prime Minister Nur al-Maliki. Discussions aimed at forming a new parliamentary block, enabling the replacement of the present government and excluding the supporters of the radical Shiite Imam, Moqtada al-Sadr, are mentioned. The new alliance could be led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who met US President George W. Bush on 4 December. He is unlikely to claim the position of Prime Minister, preferring to remain above the day-to-day concerns of office. One of the key people in such a possible alliance, the Vice-President Tariq al- Hashemi, of Sunni denomination, went to Washington on 10 December to meet George W. Bush, three weeks earlier than planned. The other Vice-President, the Shiite Adil Abdul-Mehdi, who had been suggested before ht emergence of Nuri al-Maliki, is said to be in the running for the Premiership. On 13 November, George W. Bush particularly consulted the Kurds before taking time to think about a new strategy. Telephone discussions with the Iraqi President, Jalal Talabani and the President of Kurdistan, Massud Barzani, confirmed that his agenda was still fluid and that one of his working hypotheses was the formation of a “moderate block” to strengthen Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki’s fragile political base. “Over the last few days we talked about a moderate block that would include Sunni leaders, Shiites and Kurds” (the three main Iraqi communities) and Messrs Talabani and Barzani “enter this moderate block (…) not only by contributing a
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