Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

REVUE DE PRESSE~PRESS REVIEW~BERHEVOKAÇAPÊ~RIVISTA STAMP~~DENTRO DE LA PRENSA~BASIN ÖZETi
INTE&.~ATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, TUESDAY, MAY 2,1995
D.S.Calls On AUies
To Join Ban on Iran
OilPrices
RiseonNews
Of Boycott
By Youssef M. Ibrahim
New York Times Service
PARIS - The ban on commercial dealing
wlth Iran will trigger disruptions in .
world oil markets that may raise energy
costs worldwide, particularly if the United.
States pursues its use of oil as ~ weapon
with Libya and Nigeria to extract political
.concessions or extends its boycott to for- .
eign companies doing business fn Iran.
Oil prices rose moderatelyon Monday.
.On the New York Mercantile Exchange,
crude oil for delivery ip June was trading'
late in the day at $20.50 a barrel, up 12
cents from Friday, after initially gaining as
much as 42 cents to $20.80 a barrel, the
highest level since last August. .
In London, North Sea Brent Blend
crude for June delivery was quoted in late
trading at $19.17 a barrelon the Interna-
.tional Petroleum Exchange, up Il cents
.from Friday, afterrising as high as $19.38
a barrel earlier in the day. Brent crude is.
J1e benchmark oil from the North Sea.
lf Japanjoins the boycott of Iranian oil,.
:pearly 40 percent of Iran's oilexports of
2.5 million barrels a day wouldbe blocked
out of world markets, energy experts in
IEurope estimate. A prolonged action
would deprive Tehranof about $4 billion,
or about a .third of its annual hard-currency
revenue.
Japanese oil industry officials said Mon-.
day that the United States already had
asked the Japanese Foreign Ministry to
lobby 'for a suspension of the daily p'urchases
of 600,000 barrels of Iranian oil.
."It will be more than a thorn in their
side," said Peter Gignoux, head of the.
energy desk at Smith Barney in London:
But experts say the policy would create
pardships for American companies as the
places they can operate in the Middle East .
.iU'e.becoming fewer, American oil compani;es
an: no~ banned from. operating in.
a day toMIf' that amount currently. As a
result, Russian oil exports have been un-.
stable.
Experts say the embargo comes at a time
.when the balance between oil supplies and
consumption is precarious.
Demand for oil has been increasing, as
the newly industrialized economies of India,
China and Southeast Asia expand ..
Since 1990, world oil markets have been
deprived of about 3 million barrels a day
that Iraq exported before sanctions were
imposed by the United Nations. Iran is.
.currently exporting 2.5million barrels a:
day, of which about 1 million barrels going
.to U.S. and Japan~e buyers may be sus-.
pended; .
"There is a limit to how much oil you
can keep out of the market without pushing
prices up," said John Lichtblau, president
of ~e ~etroleum Industry Research
Foundation ln Manhattan. "It's lilce a
. 'Cateh-22' situation: The mOre .
successful U.S. policy is, the ..
price of oil is likely to increase
by several dollars."
. .International oil companies
sald the overall impact of the
American boycott would be-
. come clearer after 30 days,
when the executive order takes
force.
The president of a major oil
trading company, based in .
Monte Carlo,. which handles
shipping for a substantial
amounts of Iranian crude oil,
said: "If the Americans are
very, very firm in their pressure
it will create real difficulties f0;
I~an 'in dealingwith third ,par- •
tIes, to(). No one wants to;defy.
America today."
Third parties, like indepen-
Appeal
.
Comes.:
.
After Clinton
Cuts Off Trade .
!-lbya, p-anl!Pd;I.raq; tpeyare reStricted to'. By Paul F. Horvitz
ilsm~resenœ1D~a,aad ~e at risk in,
International Herald Tribune
AJaenllf,If ~k ~~ PO~4cal groups:
,u~,the~mpameSa1sowillbebanned' WASHINGTON -The United States
ki:JIn N~$Cria:toforce the'Nigerian military :denounced Iran on Monday and sternly
to'retum to democracy. . .. declared. to its allies and to Russia and
....The ban on American oilpurchases . China thatthere were no longer any "ex-.
from Libya began in 1986, and, from Iraq, cuses" for maintaining commercjal ties
iliI99O.Simultaneously, Russian produc- with Tehran's Islamic re~me.
tion has droppe4 steadily, coming down in. ,The messagewas delivered at a news
the past foUr Years from 12 million barrels. briefing by Secretary of State Warren M
12
derit"cJiltraders ana öllsl1ïpping
companies, will playa .major
role as Iran tries to bypass the
boycott and resell oil through
'themback to America and'to
.other markets.
One' of the crucial factors to
ponder, experts say, is whether
the fe~ oil producers with~pare
capacity and reserves, lik~ Saudi
Arabia, would moveto make
up ,an~ shorÙlgé by pumping
more oil. ..
The general consensusin Europe
is that Saudi Arabia's economic
and political sense dictates
that it refrain from
replacing the Iranian oil.
"I don't think the Saudis will
b~dge on production," said Mr.,
. GIgnoux of. Smith Barney.
",Trus is a trade embargo deslgPled
to send a political message
to Tehran, with which Sau.,
.di Arabia agrees." . .
.• Other experts agreed that
Saudi Arabia, which already'
.produces 8 million barrels a
.day, would opt for higher pricet
rather than more production m
keep prices stable. 1
Oil industry experts in Eu.'
'rope said the U.S. boyc.oif
would require extensive poliC".,
ing, as Iran rushed to find inde.
pendent traders to market its,
oil.
Some Europeans have argued.
that the United states will facé
renewed pressure from Russiai:
China and .France to end thê
sanctionsimposed by the Unit ..
ed Nations that ban Iraq frorr:.
selling oil in order to ease an)/
supply crisis. .
. At the moment, most experq
believe no crisis is looming:
Those .interviewed Monday said
the embargo remained largely Ii
p~nal.tyupon American compa'
rues.
"The use of oil as a weapon ü
costly. It can cut both ways,'
said a former Algerian oil min.
ister, . Nordine Ait-Laoussine
"At the moment it is Americar
oil companiès who cannot wod
ill Libya; or Iraq or Iran. Other:
are,' and Iran will disCount it:
oil te:>s~llit."
Christopliér' one day afterPresident Bill
. Clinton announced a total ban on U.S.
trade and investment with Iran. .
The secretary srecifically called on oth-
.er nations to "end all of their concessionary
credits, which allow Iran to divert
scarce resources to militaryprograms and
'to sponsoring terrorism.:' .
. The president'sbade ban comes a week.
before Mr. Clinton flies to Moscow, where
he is expected to renew pressure-on President
Boris N. Yeltsin to reverse the
planned sale of two nuclear reactors to
Iran.
In Tehran, state radio and television
called Mr. Clinton's sanctions "disgrace-
• ful" and suggested that only U.S. companies
would p~y .a price, Reuters reported.