Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

V
ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCIAL COSTS
This chapter describes the modeling and estimation of social costs of motor
vehicle collisions in four Ontario sub-models:
• Drinking and driving collisions defined as collisions associated with alcohol
consumption by one or more involved drivers—not necessarily where alcohol was
the cause.
• Collisions involving pedestrians where one or more of those involved was a
pedestrian.
• Large truck 1 collisions defined as involving one or more vehicles qualifying as
large truck.
• Motor vehicle collisions on freeways (or 400 series highways).
A. RAW DATA AND REVISIONS
Raw data for each model were extracted from ORSAR (2004). These data for the
four sub-models are presented in Exhibit V-1.
Similar to the Ontario model, vehicles with unknown damage were assigned to
other vehicle damage categories based on the proportions of vehicles in these known
damage severity categories.
In the core Ontario model extra fatalities and injuries were first allocated among
collision severities based on the number of demolished vehicles. Then fatalities among
injury collisions and injuries among PDOs were transferred to either fatal crashes or
injury crashes respectively along with the corresponding number of collisions and their
characteristics.
In the Ontario sub-models extra fatalities and injuries were calculated and
correctly assigned by collision severity based on the overall results observed in Ontario.
To determine how many collisions and vehicles to transfer from injury collisions to fatal
collisions and from PDOs to injury collisions the model calculates the number of extra
fatalities and injuries that would have occurred in injury and PDO collisions. This
calculation was based on the proportion of demolished vehicles in these collision types.
1 Large truck is defined according to the following selected values under Vehicle types in the MTO data set:
8 truck- open (flatbed); 9 truck- closed (box, van); 10 truck- tank; 11 dump truck; 12 truck- car carrier;
13 truck- tractor; and 98 truck- other (cement mixer, crane, etc.)
TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 55