Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

Ontario Model
threatening injury, police investigation, significant damage to MTO property, a full
highway closure lasting more than 30 minutes, significant spill or ramp closure or any
unusual circumstance (ex. school bus, truck losing tire).
A sample of these cases was then selected for detailed analysis of each individual
case. The sample consisted of all recorded Toronto COMPASS incidents recorded in the
first month of each quarter, effectively capturing seasonal variations within the year.
This provided 70 cases that were entered into a spreadsheet showing date, time, location
of the incident and roads and/or lanes affected, as described in the COMPASS incident
reports
These data, in spreadsheet form, were sent to MTO to review and to provide
traffic volume data (24 hour traffic distribution data) at the specific location of each of
these incidents for that road at the specified time during which the stoppages and delays
occurred. We integrated these data with the COMPASS incident report data to estimate
delay and congestion times (in person hours) for each of the incidents. That is, all 70
incidents were analyzed individually to determine hours of delay and then combined with
the 24-hour traffic distribution data to estimate numbers of person subject to the delay
and from that, the total person hours of delay for each incident.
Based on the data described above, three delay measures were derived:
• The sampled Toronto COMPASS area based on our sampled data.
• “All Toronto COMPASS” data calculated using the ratio of 246 to 70 cases to
extrapolate sampled data to an overall total for Toronto.
• All of Ontario as described below.
To move to all of Ontario is a more difficult challenge. The Toronto COMPASS
system includes the 400 series highways around Toronto (400 to Langstaf Rd., 401, and
403 to Highway 10 in Mississauga, Highway 401 information coverage, as shown by
COMPASS reports, extends from Highway 410 to Brock Rd. The Toronto COMPASS
coverage does not include the QEW. While the existing COMPASS system covers
some of the most heavily traveled sections, the major exclusions in our sample, in terms
of the highest traffic volumes in Ontario, appear to be the QEW, Highway 404, DVP,
Gardiner, Highway 400 north of the COMPASS boundary and Highway 401 east and
west of COMPASS system.
Recent Ontario Finance data show that the GTA accounts for 46% of the Ontario
population. Linear extrapolation is not appropriate since traffic volumes (potential
delays) are much higher in the GTA. Collision delays are assumed to be 50% more likely
in the GTA so that the population share of 46% is inflated to 69% (46%*1.5). The
inverse of this is the factor of 1.45 that is used to produce the overall time delay estimate
for Ontario. This population extrapolation method is used because there is no consistent
database of collisions and delays for the entire province.
TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 39