Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada
Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada
Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada
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Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario<br />
The value of a statistical life estimated by Gunderson and Hyatt is $12.75 million,<br />
expressed in 1988 dollars. Converting this to 2004 dollars using the wage index<br />
described above gives the value of $19.7 million shown in Exhibit III-5. The Gunderson<br />
and Hyatt models do not compute the activity day and severe injury variables that we<br />
plan to use in our modeling. Their overall results indicate that their correction factors<br />
would cause the values to increase by a factor of 5. As a result, we use this factor to<br />
calculate the upper bounds for these variables in Exhibit III-5. The final column of<br />
Exhibit III-5 calculates the mean of the upper and lower bound estimates.<br />
2. Discounted Future Earnings (DFE) Estimates<br />
The discounted future earnings approach measures losses in productive activity in<br />
the workplace and in household activity for those affected by motor vehicle collisions.<br />
Losses through three main types of human consequences are measured: fatalities,<br />
permanent disabilities (total and partial), and temporary disabilities and injuries. More<br />
detail on the DFE approach may be found in Appendix C. Estimates are summarized in<br />
Exhibit III-6.<br />
Exhibit III-6 DFE estimates for human consequences (2004 $)<br />
Injury Severity<br />
Average/case<br />
Fatality<br />
$1.1 million<br />
Permanent Total Disability<br />
$1.1 million<br />
Permanent Partial Disability $189,081<br />
Major Injury* $7,709<br />
Minor Injury* $1,136<br />
Minimal Injury* $36<br />
* Excluding those resulting in permanent disability.<br />
F. VALUATION OF NON-HUMAN CONSEQUENCES<br />
1. Hospital/health care facilities cost<br />
Data from MOH<C record emergency room visits, and days in hospital for<br />
those injured as a result of motor vehicle collisions. A series of studies following a<br />
methodology established by the Health Services Restructuring Committee have been<br />
conducted of costs in Ontario hospitals. The average across 17 such studies 1 for a patient<br />
day is $216.29 and per emergency room visit $84.33 respectively, both in 2000 $. In 2004<br />
dollars these costs are $243 and $95 respectively. These represent costs for use of health<br />
care facilities, equipment and supplies and exclude a value for time by health care<br />
workers.<br />
1 Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Operational Review of Hôpital régional de Sudbury Regional<br />
Hospital, November 1, 2002.<br />
32 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research