Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Ontario Model Based on this analysis, we estimate 58,822 minimal injuries that are HTA reportable. Using this number we derive the factor (1.49) used for 2004 and later years to adjust ORSAR data to reflect the number of minimal injuries attributable to HTA reportable motor vehicle collisions. The 2004 number and adjustment factor are identified in Exhibit III-2. e) Allocation of additional fatalities and injuries among collision severities This section presents information on how the additional fatalities and injuries are allocated among motor vehicle collisions. Based on this allocation some of the extra fatalities occur in injury only collisions and some of the extra injuries occur in PDO collisions. The section next presents how collisions are re-allocated among collision severity categories to maintain the intended coverage of these categories. Additional fatalities identified through the analysis and resulting from a HTA reportable motor vehicle collision are assumed to occur among those identified by police as having been admitted to hospital (major injuries). We reduce the number of major injuries found in ORSAR to reflect the number of extra deaths identified through the Coroner’s Office. Major injuries recorded in ORSAR occur in both fatal and injury collisions. We distribute the number of major injuries transferred to fatalities according to the share of major injuries in these collision severity categories. This is illustrated in the hypothetical example below. Major injuries are distributed such that 10% are in fatal and 90% are in injury collisions. With 10 extra fatalities to distribute, 1 is assigned to fatal collisions and 9 to injury collisions. As a result of the distribution of the additional fatalities, major injuries reduce by 1 in fatal collisions and by 9 in injury collisions. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 19
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario Step 2 Allocate additional fatalities based on proportion of major injuries Collision Severity Fatal Injury ORSAR data Additional Fatalilties 50 Fatalilties 10 Major injuries 10 90 Fatalilties 50 + 1 9 Major injuries 10 - 1 90 - 9 Fatalilties 51 9 Major injuries 9 81 The additional injuries (over ORSAR estimates) identified through the MOH&LTC data and the Chipman re-analysis are allocated among collisions severity categories based on the proportion (adjusted to allocate vehicles with unknown damage) of demolished vehicles. This is illustrated in the hypothetical example below where 10%, 50% and 40% of the additional injuries are allocated to fatal, injury and PDO collisions to reflect the proportion of demolished vehicles in these collision severity groups. We believe injuries are highly correlated to vehicle damage and have therefore chosen this allocation mechanism for additional injuries. 20 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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Page 3 and 4: APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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Page 8: ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
Page 11 and 12: Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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