Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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APPENDIX C: THE VALUE OF HUMAN CONSEQUENCES USING DISCOUNTED FUTURE EARNINGS For the most part, the methods used here follow those applied by Ted Miller and described in Appendix D of the 1994 final report. Where more recent or improved data were available, the methods exploited them. Where previous results seemed questionable, the calculations were revised to bring the results into line with reasonable expectations. Some parts of the description that follows have been taken from the Appendix D referred to above. The application of the methods described here occurs in a spreadsheet file called “Discounted Future Earnings.xls”. A. DISCOUNTED FUTURE EARNINGS AND LOST HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION Losses are measured for foregone future earnings in three main types of case: fatalities, permanent disabilities (total and partial), and temporary disabilities and injuries. Fatalities cost people future earnings in the form of their expected wages, fringe benefits, and household production for the lifespan that a life table suggests lay before them in the absence of their fatal collision. Permanent total disabilities have the same effect (although average losses differ because the age and sex distributions for fatal and nonfatal injuries differ). Permanent partial disabilities are assumed to cost an average of 17% of lifetime earnings (Monroe Berkowitz and John Burton Jr., Permanent Disability Benefits in Workers’ Compensation, Kalamazoo MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1987). Probabilities of permanent disability are applied to the numbers of major, minor, and minimal injuries. These probabilities were taken from U.S. data (Ted Miller, Nancy Pindus, John <strong>Douglas</strong>s, and Shelli Rossman, Nonfatal Injury Incidence, Costs, and Consequences: A Data Book, The Urban Institute Press, published in early 1994), as follows: Total Partial Hospitalized .0162 .1493 Other Med Treated .0006 .0115 MTO defines hospitalized injuries as major injuries. Other medically treated injuries closely resemble MTO’s minor-injury category. Injuries not treated at hospital are MTO minimal injuries. We assign one-half the probability of total and partial permanent disability of other medically treated injuries to this group. Our assumption is that some injuries, including neck and back injuries, may not be immediately apparent. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 167
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario They will not be treated at a hospital emergency, but will result in permanent disability. The three types of non-fatal injury were treated as either permanent disabilities (total or partial) or temporary disabilities according to the above probabilities. This appendix first describes the estimation of discounted future lifetime earnings for deaths and permanent disabilities. Then it explains how days lost to temporary disabilities and loss per day were computed. B. LIFETIME EARNINGS Losses are calculated separately for death and non-fatal permanent disability. The relevant equations to estimate these losses are: PV mortality = 99 ∑ Py,s(n) [Ys(n) Es(n) + Y h s(n) E h s(n)] x (l+g) n-y n=y (l+r)n-y where: PV mortality = presented discounted value of loss due to injury death per person Py,s(n) y s n Ys(n) Es(n) Yh s (n) = probability that a person of sex s and age y will survive to age n = age at which the individual was injured = sex of the individual = future age of the individual (years of age over which the individual is deemed to have lost earnings and household production) = mean annual earnings of an employed person of sex s and age n including the value of fringe benefits = proportion of the population of sex s and age n that are employed in the labour market = mean annual imputed value of homemaking services of a person of sex s and age n 168 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
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Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
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Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
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Ontario Model Based on this analysi
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Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
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Ontario Model damaged based on this
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Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
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Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
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Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
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Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WT
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Ontario Model We combine this value
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Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
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Ontario Model individuals who self-
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Ontario Model threatening injury, p
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Ontario Model d) Additional Polluti
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Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TI
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Ontario Model We have no data to gu
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V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
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Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
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Appendix A Detail on Calculations o
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