Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Appendix A—Detail on Calculations of the Ontario Model incidents were analyzed individually to determine hours of delay and then combined with the 24-hour traffic distribution data to estimate numbers of person subject to the delay and from that, the total person hours of delay for each incident. Based on the data described above, Exhibit A-22 shows estimated costs for each of the three categories and a total congestion cost. These are shown for the sample, for all of the Toronto COMPASS area and for Ontario. The “ Toronto COMPASS” data use a ratio of 246 to 70 cases to develop the overall total for Toronto. To move to all of Ontario is a more difficult challenge. The Toronto COMPASS system includes the 400 series highways around Toronto (400 to Langstaff Rd., 401, 403 to Highway 10). . Highway 401 information coverage, as shown by COMPASS reports, extends on Highway 401 from Highway 410 to Brock Road. The Toronto COMPASS coverage does not include the QEW. While the existing COMPASS system covers some of the most heavily traveled sections, the major exclusions in our sample, in terms of the highest traffic volumes in Ontario, appear to be the QEW, Highway 404, DVP, Gardiner, Highway 400 north of the COMPASS boundary and Highway 401 east and west of COMPASS. The next step is to extrapolate these data to all of Ontario. This represents a major challenge and would be a major research study on its own. The preliminary Ontario congestion cost estimate that we have developed in this report is derived as follows. Recent Ontario Finance data show that the GTA accounts for 46% of the Ontario population. Linear extrapolation is not appropriate since traffic volumes (potential delays) are much higher in the GTA. Collision delays are assumed to be 50% more likely in the GTA so that the population share of 46% is inflated to 69% (46%*1.5). The inverse of this is the factor of 1.45 that is used to produce the overall Ontario total cost estimate of $501.8 million shown in Exhibit A-22. This population extrapolation method is used because there is no consistent database of collisions and delays for the entire province. Exhibit A-22 Estimated Congestion Costs due to Collisions: 2004 ($ Millions) Extra time Extra fuel Additional pollution Total Costs COMPASS Sample All Toronto COMPASS $49.1 $4.1 $45.2 $98.5 $172.9 $14.5 $158.8 $346.1 Ontario $250.7 $21.0 $230.2 $501.9 We have no data to guide our allocation of traffic delay cost across collision severity. We assume that on average injury collisions involve 10 times the delay of PDOs and fatal collisions involve 100 times the delay of injury collisions (1000 times the delay TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 155
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario for PDOs). Given the disproportionate share of PDO collisions this allocation results in 48%, 41% and 11% of traffic delay cost being applied to fatal, injury and PDO collisions respectively. 156 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
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Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
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Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
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Ontario Model Based on this analysi
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Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
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Ontario Model damaged based on this
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Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
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Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
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Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
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Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WT
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Ontario Model We combine this value
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Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
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Ontario Model individuals who self-
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Ontario Model threatening injury, p
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Ontario Model d) Additional Polluti
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Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TI
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Ontario Model We have no data to gu
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V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
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Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
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Page 113 and 114: Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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Page 200 and 201: APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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