Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

Appendix A—Detail on Calculations of the Ontario Model
incidents were analyzed individually to determine hours of delay and then combined with
the 24-hour traffic distribution data to estimate numbers of person subject to the delay
and from that, the total person hours of delay for each incident.
Based on the data described above, Exhibit A-22 shows estimated costs for each
of the three categories and a total congestion cost. These are shown for the sample, for
all of the Toronto COMPASS area and for Ontario. The “ Toronto COMPASS” data use
a ratio of 246 to 70 cases to develop the overall total for Toronto. To move to all of
Ontario is a more difficult challenge. The Toronto COMPASS system includes the 400
series highways around Toronto (400 to Langstaff Rd., 401, 403 to Highway 10). .
Highway 401 information coverage, as shown by COMPASS reports, extends on
Highway 401 from Highway 410 to Brock Road. The Toronto COMPASS coverage
does not include the QEW. While the existing COMPASS system covers some of the
most heavily traveled sections, the major exclusions in our sample, in terms of the highest
traffic volumes in Ontario, appear to be the QEW, Highway 404, DVP, Gardiner,
Highway 400 north of the COMPASS boundary and Highway 401 east and west of
COMPASS.
The next step is to extrapolate these data to all of Ontario. This represents a major
challenge and would be a major research study on its own. The preliminary Ontario
congestion cost estimate that we have developed in this report is derived as follows.
Recent Ontario Finance data show that the GTA accounts for 46% of the Ontario
population. Linear extrapolation is not appropriate since traffic volumes (potential
delays) are much higher in the GTA. Collision delays are assumed to be 50% more likely
in the GTA so that the population share of 46% is inflated to 69% (46%*1.5). The
inverse of this is the factor of 1.45 that is used to produce the overall Ontario total cost
estimate of $501.8 million shown in Exhibit A-22. This population extrapolation method
is used because there is no consistent database of collisions and delays for the entire
province.
Exhibit A-22 Estimated Congestion Costs due to Collisions: 2004
($ Millions) Extra time Extra fuel Additional
pollution
Total Costs
COMPASS
Sample
All Toronto
COMPASS
$49.1 $4.1 $45.2 $98.5
$172.9 $14.5 $158.8 $346.1
Ontario $250.7 $21.0 $230.2 $501.9
We have no data to guide our allocation of traffic delay cost across collision
severity. We assume that on average injury collisions involve 10 times the delay of PDOs
and fatal collisions involve 100 times the delay of injury collisions (1000 times the delay
TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 155