Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

Appendix A—Detail on Calculations of the Ontario Model
Exhibit A-8
Probabilities of Total and Partial Permanent Disability by
Injury Severity
Incidence of permanent
disability
Total Partial
Injuries:
Major 0.0162 0.1493
Minor 0.0006 0.0115
Minimal 0.0003 0.0058
Source: Databook on Nonfatal Injury: Incidence, Costs and Consequences by Ted R. Miller, Nancy M.
Pindus, John B. Douglass, Shelli B. Rossman, May 1995:
Using these probabilities we estimate the number of total and partial permanent
disabilities by severity of injury and collision severity. Results for 2004 are provided in
Exhibit A-9. Note that the exhibit identifies fractional total disabilities within a year. In
the case of 0.3 total disabilities from minimal injuries under the fatal category this should
be interpreted as one total disability approximately each three years (1 injury/0.3 injury
per year =3.3 years).
2. Number of activity-days and work-days lost
We estimate the days of lost activity from motor vehicle collisions from data from
the Passenger Car Survey (PCS) of Transport Canada. The data are for the period 1984
to 1989 inclusive for all of Canada and measure days of work lost including those days
lost by persons engaged in household work. The PSC was discontinued in the early
1990s. Data discussed in this section was originally used in our 1994 study. More detail
on the survey methods can be found in this earlier report.
Our estimates of average days lost differ depending on whether the analysis is for
our DFE or WTP analysis. This is as a result of the underlying rationale of the DFE and
WTP approaches.
TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 129