Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario
Social cost estimates for each jurisdiction were then aggregated to reflect the
social costs of motor vehicle collisions in Canada. Results for 2004 using the willingness
to pay approach and medium scenario are shown in Exhibit VI-7. The Canadian results
indicate a social cost of $63 billion. A total of $55 billion (87%) are related to the human
consequences of the collision while $8 billion (13%) are related to other costs of motor
vehicle collisions.
Totals for Canada are derived from individual estimates of social costs for each
jurisdiction. Exhibit VI-8 presents the distribution of social costs estimated using the
willingness to pay—medium scenario by jurisdiction within the Canadian total. The
distribution of the Canadian population, gross domestic product, passenger kilometres
travelled, and licensed drivers by jurisdiction is also presented for comparison purposes
only. Although there are many determinants of motor vehicle collisions, there are some
interesting findings through a comparison of these distributions. For example, Ontario
represents a smaller share of the total Canadian social costs than its share of all social
indicators.
Exhibit VI-9 illustrates changes to the social costs of human consequences for
Canada if other social cost methods and assumptions are used. Using the discounted
future earnings (DFE) method the cost of human consequences have a value of $5.8
billion for a total social costs including human consequences of $13.7 billion to Canada.
The low and high scenarios using willingness to pay (WTP) result in estimates of human
consequences of $26.5 billion and $83.0 billion respectively. Based on these estimates the
total social cost of motor vehicle collisions in 2004 for Canada are $34.4 billion and
$90.9 billion respectively. The social costs of human consequences for Canadian
jurisdictions assuming other social cost methods and assumptions are presented in
Appendix D.
106 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research