On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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96 Chapter 4 easily. Thus, soil moisture data were gathered from the literature, and FORCLIM-E was used to simulate these independent data as a small validation study. A considerable body of data on soil moisture content was found for sites close to Basel, which are characterized by considerable drought occurrence (Tab. 4.1). Monthly temperature and precipitation data for the years where measurements of soil moisture had been made were obtained from the climate station Rheinfelden (SMA 1971-1984). The field capacity parameter (kFC) required by FORCLIM-E was calculated from the data in Tab. 4.2. It should be noted that the extremely large rooting depths at two sites lead to values of kFC that probably are exaggerated; yet the FORCLIM-E model is little sensitive to the value of kFC unless it is below 25 cm. Frequency uAET, Bever 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 uAET uAET, Locarno 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 uAET Fig. 4.1: Frequency distribution of simulated annual actual evapotranspiration rates (uAET, mm·yr -1 ) at the sites Bever (north-facing slope, left) and Locarno (right), taking into account the cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation. Frequency uncorrelated T and P 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 uDrStr correlated T and P 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 uDrStr Fig. 4.2: Frequency distribution of simulated drought stress (uDrStr) at the site Adelboden, where the largest differences occur (cf. Tab. 4.1). Although they look similar, the distributions are significantly different at p = 0.0031 (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Zar 1984).
Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transect in the European Alps 97 600 correlated T and P 500 Frequency 400 300 200 100 0 -.1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 uDrStr Fig. 4.3: Frequency distribution of simulated drought stress (uDrStr) at the site Sion. The time series of soil water content as simulated by FORCLIM-E at these sites (Tab. 4.2) are shown in Fig. 4.4. The Thornthwaite & Mather (1957) model tracks measured soil moisture fairly well. The deviations from the measurements should be interpreted considering both the accuracy of the measurements and their representativeness: The measured soil moisture content is influenced considerably by the water demand of the trees surrounding the measuring devices, whereas the simulated water content corresponds to the average over a larger area. Moreover, it should be kept in mind that the FORCLIM-E model has a monthly time step only, whereas the measurements have a much finer resolution that can not be produced by the model. Generally speaking, FORCLIM-E appears to be capable of simulating realistic time series of soil moisture under conditions of moderate drought. It can be expected that results of a similar quality would be obtained for other sites on the Swiss Plateau because they are characterized by similar drought stress (Tab. 4.1). However, the precision of the calculation for sites with much more drought (e.g. Sion) can not be inferred from the above experiments and would have to be assessed separately. Tab. 4.2: Derivation of the field capacity parameter (kFC) at the sites used for testing the behaviour of the soil water balance model. Site Rooting depth [cm] Field capacity [%] kFC [cm] Observation years Reference Wallbach-Möhlin 350 38 132.3 1971, 1972 Germann (1976) Möhlin 300 38 114.0 1975, 1976 Borer (1982) Kaisten 150 25 37.5 1978, 1979 Vogelsanger (1986) Eiken-Laufenburg 150 25 37.5 1982–1984 Hurst (1988)
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Page 39 and 40: The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
Page 41 and 42: The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
Page 43 and 44: The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
Page 45 and 46: The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
Page 47 and 48: The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
Page 49 and 50: The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
Page 51 and 52: The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
Page 53 and 54: The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
Page 55 and 56: The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
Page 57 and 58: The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
Page 59 and 60: The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
Page 61 and 62: The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
Page 63 and 64: The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
Page 65 and 66: The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
Page 67 and 68: The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
Page 69 and 70: The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
Page 71 and 72: The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
Page 73 and 74: The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
Page 75 and 76: The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
Page 77 and 78: The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
Page 79 and 80: The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
Page 81 and 82: The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
Page 83 and 84: The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
Page 85 and 86: The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
Page 87 and 88: The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
Page 89: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 93 and 94: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 115 and 116: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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153 6 . Model applications Climatic
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Model applications 155 The simulate
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Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
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Model applications 159 simulation s
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Model applications 161 Simulation e
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Model applications 163 At the site
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Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
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Model applications 167 tainty inher
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Model applications 169 scenario cho
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Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
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Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
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Discussion 175 comparably small imp
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Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
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Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
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Conclusions 181 species composition
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References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
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References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
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References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
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References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
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References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
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References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
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References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
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References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
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References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
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Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
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Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
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Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
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Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
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Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
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Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
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Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
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Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
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Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
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Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
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Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
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Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
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Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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Appendix 231 (*********************
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Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
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Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
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Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
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Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
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Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 245 Example of a text file
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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