On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ii Table of contents A BSTRACT..........................................................................................vi KURZFASSUNG ..................................................................................viii 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 1 1.1 Climatic change and mountainous forests ............................................ 1 1.2 Methods for the analysis of forest ecosystems....................................... 3 1.3 Spatial scales in forests and corresponding models ................................. 4 1.4 Forest gap models....................................................................... 7 1.5 Objectives of this study................................................................11 2. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING FOREST GAP MODELS ..........................................13 2.1 Model formalism.......................................................................13 2.2 Statistical analysis ......................................................................17 2.2.1 Characteristics of model behaviour on a single forest patch .............17 2.2.2 Statistical sampling of the stochastic process ..............................23 2.3 Structural sensitivity...................................................................27 2.3.1 Sensitivity to structural simplifications .....................................27 2.3.2 Sensitivity to the formulation of climatic influences ......................36 2.4 Summary & conclusion ..............................................................42 3. THE FOREST MODEL FORCLIM ............................................................44 3.1 Structure of FORCLIM .................................................................44 3.2 Model assumptions.....................................................................45 3.2.1 Plant submodel: Tree population dynamics ................................45 3.2.2 Soil submodel: Turnover of soil organic matter ...........................51 3.2.3 Environment submodel: The abiotic forest environment .................54 3.3 Model equations........................................................................57 3.3.1 FORCLIM-P: A forest gap model of tree population dynamics ..........57 3.3.2 FORCLIM-S: A model of the turnover of soil organic matter ............73 3.3.3 FORCLIM-E: A model of the abiotic environment.........................77 3.4 Parameter estimation ...................................................................83 3.4.1 FORCLIM-P....................................................................83 3.4.2 FORCLIM-S....................................................................86 3.4.3 FORCLIM-E....................................................................87 3.5 Model implementation.................................................................88 3.5.1 Modelling and simulation tools..............................................88 3.5.2 Coupling the submodels......................................................89 3.5.3 The concepts of sites and species........................................92 3.5.4 Other implementational aspects..............................................92 4. BEHAVIOUR OF FORCLIM ALONG A TRANSECT IN THE EUROPEAN ALPS...........94 4.1 FORCLIM-E.............................................................................94 4.2 FORCLIM-S.............................................................................99
iii 4.3 Model variants including FORCLIM-P..............................................101 4.3.1 F ORC LIM-P...................................................................101 4.3.2 FORCLIM-E/P ...............................................................103 4.3.3 FORC LIM-E/P/S..............................................................104 4.3.4 Discussion & conclusion..................................................111 4.4 A new method for estimating the equilibrium species composition .............114 4.4.1 Material & methods ........................................................115 4.4.2 Results & discussion.......................................................116 5. PARAMETER SENSITIVITY & MODEL VALIDATION ...................................120 5.1 Sensitivity of species parameters in FORCLIM ....................................120 5.1.1 Range of plausibility for species parameters..............................121 5.1.2 Simulation experiments .....................................................122 5.1.3 Results & discussion.......................................................123 5.1.4 Conclusion....................................................................126 5.2 Choice of data and experiments for model validation.............................127 5.3 Behaviour of FORCLIM in central Europe..........................................129 5.3.1 Derivation of input data .....................................................129 5.3.2 Results & discussion.......................................................132 5.3.3 Conclusion....................................................................142 5.4 Behaviour of FORCLIM in eastern North America ................................143 5.4.1 Tree species and climatic data of eastern North America................144 5.4.2 Simulation experiments .....................................................145 5.4.3 Results & discussion.......................................................145 5.4.4 Conclusion....................................................................151 6. MODEL APPLICATIONS.....................................................................153 6.1 Effects of historical climate anomalies on forest dynamics.......................153 6.1.1 Input data and simulation experiments ....................................153 6.1.2 Results & discussion.......................................................154 6.2 Possible effects of future climatic change on forest ecosystems in the European Alps.........................................................................157 6.2.1 Material & methods ........................................................158 6.2.2 Results & discussion.......................................................161 6.2.3 Conclusion....................................................................168 7. DISCUSSION .................................................................................170 7.1 Analysis of existing forest gap models .........................................170 7.2 Structure and behaviour of FORCLIM ...........................................171 7.3 Parameter sensitivity..................................................................172 7.4 Model validation.......................................................................174 7.5 Possible effects of climatic change on forests in the Alps........................175 7.6 Tools for modelling and simulation.................................................177 8. CONCLUSIONS...............................................................................178 REFERENCES ....................................................................................182
Page 1: Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
Page 6 and 7: iv APPENDIX .......................
Page 8 and 9: vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
Page 10 and 11: viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
Page 13 and 14: 1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
Page 15 and 16: Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
Page 17 and 18: Introduction 5 in a changing climat
Page 19 and 20: Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
Page 21 and 22: Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
Page 23 and 24: Introduction 11 The main advantage
Page 25 and 26: 13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
Page 27 and 28: Analysis of existing forest gap mod
Page 39 and 40: The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
Page 41 and 42: The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
Page 43 and 44: The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
Page 45 and 46: The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
Page 47 and 48: The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
Page 49 and 50: The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
Page 51 and 52: The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
Page 53 and 54: The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
Page 55 and 56:
The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
Page 57 and 58:
The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
Page 59 and 60:
The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
Page 61 and 62:
The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
Page 63 and 64:
The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
Page 65 and 66:
The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
Page 67 and 68:
The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
Page 69 and 70:
The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
Page 71 and 72:
The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
Page 73 and 74:
The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
Page 75 and 76:
The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
Page 77 and 78:
The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
Page 79 and 80:
The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
Page 81 and 82:
The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
Page 83 and 84:
The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
Page 85 and 86:
The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
Page 87 and 88:
The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
Page 89 and 90:
Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
153 6 . Model applications Climatic
Page 149 and 150:
Model applications 155 The simulate
Page 151 and 152:
Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
Page 153 and 154:
Model applications 159 simulation s
Page 155 and 156:
Model applications 161 Simulation e
Page 157 and 158:
Model applications 163 At the site
Page 159 and 160:
Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
Page 161 and 162:
Model applications 167 tainty inher
Page 163 and 164:
Model applications 169 scenario cho
Page 165 and 166:
Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
Page 167 and 168:
Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
Page 169 and 170:
Discussion 175 comparably small imp
Page 171 and 172:
Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
Page 173 and 174:
Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
Page 175 and 176:
Conclusions 181 species composition
Page 177 and 178:
References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
Page 179 and 180:
References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
Page 181 and 182:
References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
Page 183 and 184:
References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
Page 185 and 186:
References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
Page 187 and 188:
References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
Page 189 and 190:
References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
Page 191 and 192:
References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
Page 193 and 194:
References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
Page 195 and 196:
Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
Page 197 and 198:
Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
Page 199 and 200:
Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
Page 201 and 202:
Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
Page 203 and 204:
Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
Page 205 and 206:
Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
Page 207 and 208:
Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
Page 209 and 210:
Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
Page 211 and 212:
Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
Page 213 and 214:
Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
Page 215 and 216:
Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
Page 217 and 218:
Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
Page 219 and 220:
Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
Page 221 and 222:
Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
Page 223 and 224:
Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
Page 225 and 226:
Appendix 231 (*********************
Page 227 and 228:
Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
Page 229 and 230:
Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
Page 231 and 232:
Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
Page 233 and 234:
Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
Page 235 and 236:
Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
Page 237 and 238:
Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
Page 239 and 240:
Appendix 245 Example of a text file
Page 241 and 242:
Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
Page 243 and 244:
Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
Page 245 and 246:
Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
Page 247 and 248:
Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
Page 249 and 250:
Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
Page 251 and 252:
Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
show all

On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?