On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...
On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...
On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...
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ii<br />
Table <strong>of</strong> contents<br />
A BSTRACT..........................................................................................vi<br />
KURZFASSUNG ..................................................................................viii<br />
1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 1<br />
1.1 Climatic change and mounta<strong>in</strong>ous forests ............................................ 1<br />
1.2 Methods for <strong>the</strong> analysis <strong>of</strong> forest ecosystems....................................... 3<br />
1.3 Spatial scales <strong>in</strong> forests and correspond<strong>in</strong>g models ................................. 4<br />
1.4 Forest gap models....................................................................... 7<br />
1.5 Objectives <strong>of</strong> this study................................................................11<br />
2. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING FOREST GAP MODELS ..........................................13<br />
2.1 Model formalism.......................................................................13<br />
2.2 Statistical analysis ......................................................................17<br />
2.2.1 Characteristics <strong>of</strong> model behaviour on a s<strong>in</strong>gle forest patch .............17<br />
2.2.2 Statistical sampl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> stochastic process ..............................23<br />
2.3 Structural sensitivity...................................................................27<br />
2.3.1 Sensitivity to structural simplifications .....................................27<br />
2.3.2 Sensitivity to <strong>the</strong> formulation <strong>of</strong> climatic <strong>in</strong>fluences ......................36<br />
2.4 Summary & conclusion ..............................................................42<br />
3. THE FOREST MODEL FORCLIM ............................................................44<br />
3.1 Structure <strong>of</strong> FORCLIM .................................................................44<br />
3.2 Model assumptions.....................................................................45<br />
3.2.1 Plant submodel: Tree population dynamics ................................45<br />
3.2.2 Soil submodel: Turnover <strong>of</strong> soil organic matter ...........................51<br />
3.2.3 Environment submodel: The abiotic forest environment .................54<br />
3.3 Model equations........................................................................57<br />
3.3.1 FORCLIM-P: A forest gap model <strong>of</strong> tree population dynamics ..........57<br />
3.3.2 FORCLIM-S: A model <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> turnover <strong>of</strong> soil organic matter ............73<br />
3.3.3 FORCLIM-E: A model <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> abiotic environment.........................77<br />
3.4 Parameter estimation ...................................................................83<br />
3.4.1 FORCLIM-P....................................................................83<br />
3.4.2 FORCLIM-S....................................................................86<br />
3.4.3 FORCLIM-E....................................................................87<br />
3.5 Model implementation.................................................................88<br />
3.5.1 Modell<strong>in</strong>g and simulation tools..............................................88<br />
3.5.2 Coupl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> submodels......................................................89<br />
3.5.3 The concepts <strong>of</strong> sites and species........................................92<br />
3.5.4 O<strong>the</strong>r implementational aspects..............................................92<br />
4. BEHAVIOUR OF FORCLIM ALONG A TRANSECT IN THE EUROPEAN ALPS...........94<br />
4.1 FORCLIM-E.............................................................................94<br />
4.2 FORCLIM-S.............................................................................99