On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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246 Appendix V . Sensitivity analysis: Species parameters and detailed results Tab. A-15 & A-16 list the lower and upper end of the plausibility interval of the species parameters, respectively. For some parameters of some species, it was not possible to derive these values because of the following restrictions: 1) For some parameters of a few species, no measure of variability could be derived from the literature (e.g. kDm and kAm of Pinus montana) 2) It was not possible to determine plausible uncertainty ranges of the kWiT s parameter for those species that have no susceptibility to low winter temperature (kWiT s = N). 3) For parameters whose default value for a given species is already at the lower or upper boundary of the definition range (e.g. sType, kNTol, kBrow, kLy, kLa, kLQ), the sensitivity could not be determined because the definition range of the parameters would have been exceeded 4) For parameters whose default value for a given species is closer to the lower or upper boundary of the definition range than half the size of their plausibility interval (e.g. kLy of Larix decidua), the parameter was set to the minimum or maximum of the definition range, respectively. In the cases 1) to 3) above, no simulation studies were conducted. These cases are marked by empty cells in Tab. A-15 & A-16. Taking into account the above restrictions, it was possible to derive a lower boundary of the plausibility interval for 364 species parameters and an upper boundary for 368 species parameters (Tab. A-15 & A-16). Tab. A-17 & A-18 give the percentage similarity coefficients between the steady state species composition of the FORCLIM-E/P/S model with the default parameter set and the steady states as estimated with each of the parameters changed according to Tab. A-15 and A-16, respectively. In Tab. A-19 & A-120 the change in the biomass of those species whose parameters were lowered or increased are listed. Empty cells denote either missing parameters (cf. Tab. A-15 & A-18) or that no significant change (α = 5%) of the biomass occurred.
Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end of the plausibility interval of the species-specific parameters. Empty cells denote missing values. Species sType kDm kHm kAm kG kDDMin kDDMax kWiT kDrT kNTol kBrow kLy kLa kLQ Abies alba C4 150 45 300 81.9 512.8 2694.6 -8 0.08 1 2 1 1 Larix decidua D1 100 35 300 119 258.4 1395 -13 0.02 1 6 7 2 Picea excelsa C4 100 36 200 119.7 308 1395 0.001 1 1 3 3 2 Pinus cembra C4 105 20 600 80.5 258.4 674.4 -13 0.2 2 4 3 2 Pinus montana C4 15 96.6 348.8 1155 0.2 1 6 7 2 Pinus silvestris C3 100 35 400 83.3 488 1666.2 0.2 1 5 7 2 Taxus baccata C4 50 15 1000 32.9 808.8 2694.6 -7 0.14 1 2 2 1 1 Acer campestre D1 40 9 100 109.2 849.6 2694.6 0.14 1 3 3 1 Acer platanoides D2 100 20 150 99.4 833.6 2860.8 -19 0.08 1 1 2 1 Acer pseudoplatanus D2 200 30 350 87.5 718.4 2694.6 0.08 1 1 2 1 Alnus glutinosa D1 50 19 100 175 718.4 3138 -18 0.001 1 1 3 3 Alnus incana D1 40 10 50 186.2 488 2522.4 0.001 1 1 4 5 Alnus viridis D1 2.5 371.7 217.6 742.2 0.02 1 1 5 5 Betula pendula 60 18 100 194.6 488 2793 0.02 5 7 1 Carpinus betulus D2 50 19 150 123.9 718.4 2793 -11 0.08 1 2 2 1 Castanea sativa D2 100 20 600 99.4 989.6 2866.8 0.14 1 3 3 1 Corylus avellana D2 5 50 66.5 718.4 2793 -19 0.14 1 2 4 4 Fagus silvatica D2 150 30 300 133.7 578.4 2793 -6 0.02 2 1 1 Fraxinus excelsior D1 100 30 250 123.9 784 2694.6 -19 0.02 2 1 2 4 Populus nigra D1 127 30 200 199.5 529.6 3243 0.001 2 2 3 3 1 Populus tremula D1 60 15 100 217 488 2793 0.08 2 4 5 1 Quercus petraea D2 250 30 500 136.5 628 2793 -7 0.08 1 4 5 1 Quercus pubescens D2 16 103.6 808.8 2793 0.14 1 1 5 5 1 Quercus robur D2 200 30 500 136.5 833.6 2793 -19 0.2 1 5 7 1 Salix alba 20 100 194.6 849.6 3243 0.001 2 3 3 1 Sorbus aria D1 40 12 100 57.4 718.4 3205.8 0.14 1 1 4 5 Sorbus aucuparia 30 15 90 116.9 398.4 2522.4 0.14 1 4 5 Tilia cordata D2 100 22 500 79.8 1071.2 2694.6 -23 0.14 1 1 3 3 1 Tilia platyphyllos D2 185 30 500 77 1071.2 2694.6 0.08 1 1 2 1 1 Ulmus scabra D2 100 30 400 107.1 849.6 3138 -18 0.08 2 2 1
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
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The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
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The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
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The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
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The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
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The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
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The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
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The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
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The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
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The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
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The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
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The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
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The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
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The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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153 6 . Model applications Climatic
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Model applications 155 The simulate
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Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
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Model applications 159 simulation s
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Model applications 161 Simulation e
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Model applications 163 At the site
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Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
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Model applications 167 tainty inher
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Model applications 169 scenario cho
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Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
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Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
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Discussion 175 comparably small imp
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Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
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Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
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Conclusions 181 species composition
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References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
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References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
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References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
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References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
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References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
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References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
Page 189 and 190: References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
Page 191 and 192: References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
Page 193 and 194: References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
Page 195 and 196: Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
Page 197 and 198: Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
Page 199 and 200: Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
Page 201 and 202: Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
Page 203 and 204: Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
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Page 207 and 208: Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
Page 209 and 210: Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
Page 211 and 212: Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
Page 213 and 214: Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
Page 215 and 216: Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
Page 217 and 218: Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
Page 219 and 220: Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
Page 221 and 222: Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
Page 223 and 224: Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
Page 225 and 226: Appendix 231 (*********************
Page 227 and 228: Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
Page 229 and 230: Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
Page 231 and 232: Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
Page 233 and 234: Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
Page 235 and 236: Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
Page 237 and 238: Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
Page 239: Appendix 245 Example of a text file
Page 243 and 244: Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
Page 245 and 246: Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
Page 247 and 248: Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
Page 249 and 250: Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
Page 251 and 252: Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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