196 References Shaver, G.R., Bill<strong>in</strong>gs, W.D., Chap<strong>in</strong>, F.S., Gibl<strong>in</strong>, A.E., Nadelh<strong>of</strong>fer, K.J., Oechel, W.C. & Rastetter, E.B., 1992. Global change and <strong>the</strong> carbon balance <strong>of</strong> arctic ecosystems. Bioscience, 42: 433- 441. Shugart, H.H., 1984. A <strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong> forest dynamics. The ecological implications <strong>of</strong> forest succession models. Spr<strong>in</strong>ger, New York a.o., 278 pp. Shugart, H.H., 1990. Us<strong>in</strong>g ecosystem models to assess potential consequences <strong>of</strong> global climatic change. Trends Ecol. Evol., 5: 303-307. Shugart, H.H. & West, D.C., 1977. Development <strong>of</strong> an Appalachian deciduous forest succession model and its application to assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> chestnut blight. J. Env. Mgmt., 5: 161- 179. Shugart, H.H. & West, D.C., 1979. Size and pattern <strong>of</strong> simulated forest stands. For. Sci., 25: 120-122. Shugart, H.H. & West, D.C., 1980. Forest succession models. Bioscience, 30: 308-313. Shugart, H.H. & Noble, I.R., 1981. A computer model <strong>of</strong> succession and fire response <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> highaltitude Eucalyptus forest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Br<strong>in</strong>dabella Range, Australian Capital Territory. Austr. J. Ecol., 6: 149-164. Shugart, H.H. & Emanuel, W.R., 1985. Carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong>crease: <strong>the</strong> implications at <strong>the</strong> ecosystem level. Plant, Cell and Environment, 8: 381-386. Shugart, H.H. & Urban, D.L., 1989. Factors affect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> relative abundances <strong>of</strong> tree species. In: Grubb, P.J. & Whittaker, J.B. (eds.), Toward a more exact ecology. 30th Symposium <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Ecological Society, Blackwell, Oxford a.o., 249-273. Shugart, H.H. & Prentice, I.C., 1992. Individual-tree-based models <strong>of</strong> forest dynamics and <strong>the</strong>ir application <strong>in</strong> global change research. In: Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R. & Bonan, G.B. (eds.), A systems analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> global boreal forest. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge a.o., 313-333. Shugart, H.H., Crow, T.R. & Hett, J.M., 1973. Forest succession models: a rationale and methodology for model<strong>in</strong>g forest succession over large regions. For. Sci., 19: 203-212. Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R. & Bonan, G.B. (eds.), 1992. A systems analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> global boreal forest. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge a.o., 565 pp. Shugart, H.H., Goldste<strong>in</strong>, R.A., O'Neill, R.V. & Mank<strong>in</strong>, J.B., 1974. A terrestrial ecosystem energy model for forests. Oecologia plantarum, 9: 230-264. Shugart, H.H., Antonovsky, M. Ya., Jarvis, P.G. & Sandford, A.P., 1986. CO 2 , climatic change, and forest ecosystems. In: Bol<strong>in</strong>, B., Döös, B.R., Jäger, J. & Warrick, R.A. (eds.), The greenhouse effect, climatic change and ecosystems. Wiley, Chichester a.o. (SCOPE Vol. 29), 475-522. Shumway, R.H., 1988. Applied statistical time series analysis. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 379 pp. Siccama, T.G., Botk<strong>in</strong>, D.B., Bormann, F.H. & Likens, G.E., 1969. Computer simulation <strong>of</strong> a nor<strong>the</strong>rn hardwood forest. Bull. Ecol. Soc. Amer., 50: 93. Siegenthaler, U. & Oeschger, H., 1978. Predict<strong>in</strong>g future atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Science, 199: 388-395. S<strong>in</strong>clair, T.R., Murphy, C.E. & Knoerr, K.R., 1976. Development and evaluation <strong>of</strong> simplified models for simulat<strong>in</strong>g canopy photosyn<strong>the</strong>sis and transpiration. J. appl. Ecol., 13: 813-829. SMA (Swiss Meteorological Agency), 1901-90. Annalen der Schweizerischen Meteorologischen Anstalt. Swiss Meteorological Agency, Zürich. Smith, F.W., Sampson, D.A. & Long, J.N., 1991. Comparison <strong>of</strong> leaf area <strong>in</strong>dex estimates from tree allometrics and measured light <strong>in</strong>terception. For. Sci., 37: 1682-1688.
References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans, R. & Shugart, H.H., 1992. Sensitivity <strong>of</strong> terrestrial carbon storage to CO 2 - <strong>in</strong>duced climate change: Comparison <strong>of</strong> four scenarios based on general circulation models. Clim. Change, 21: 367-384. Smith, T.M., Shugart, H.H., Urban, D.L., Lauenroth, W.K., C<strong>of</strong>f<strong>in</strong>, D.P. & Kirchner, T.B., 1989. Model<strong>in</strong>g vegetation across biomes: forest-grassland transition. In: Sjögren, E. (ed.), <strong>Forests</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world: diversity and dynamics. Studies <strong>in</strong> Plant <strong>Ecology</strong>, 18: 240-241. Soll<strong>in</strong>s, P., Reichle, D.E. & Olson, J.S., 1973. Organic matter budget and model for a sou<strong>the</strong>rn Appalachian Liriodendron forest. Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome/IBP Publication No. 73/2. Soll<strong>in</strong>s, Ph., Harris, W.F. & Edwards, N.T., 1976. Simulat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> physiology <strong>of</strong> a temperate deciduous forest. In: Patten, B.C. (ed.), Systems analysis and simulation <strong>in</strong> ecology, Vol. 4. Academic Press, New York a.o., 173-218. Soll<strong>in</strong>s, P., Goldste<strong>in</strong>, R.A., Mank<strong>in</strong>, J.B., Murphy, C.E. & Swartzman, G.L., 1981. Analysis <strong>of</strong> forest growth and water balance us<strong>in</strong>g complex ecosystem models. In: Reichle, D.E. (ed.), Dynamic properties <strong>of</strong> forest ecosystems. IBP publication no. 23, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge a.o., 537-565. Solomon, A.M., 1986. Transient response <strong>of</strong> forests to CO 2 -<strong>in</strong>duced climate change: simulation model<strong>in</strong>g experiments <strong>in</strong> eastern North America. Oecologia, 68: 567-579. Solomon, A.M. & Bartle<strong>in</strong>, P.J., 1993. Past and future climate change: response by mixed deciduousconiferous forest ecosystems <strong>in</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn Michigan. Can. J. For. Res., 22: 1727-1738. Solomon, A.M. & Tharp, M.L., 1985. Simulation experiments with late quaternary carbon storage <strong>in</strong> mid-latitude forest communities. In: Sundquist, E.T. & Broecker, W.S. (eds.), The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO 2 : natural variations archean to present. American Geophysical Union, Wash<strong>in</strong>gton D.C. Geophysical Monograph Vol. 32, 235-250. Solomon, A.M. & West, D.C., 1987. Simulat<strong>in</strong>g forest ecosystem responses to expected climate change <strong>in</strong> eastern North America: Applications to decision mak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> forest <strong>in</strong>dustry. In: Shands, W.E. & H<strong>of</strong>fmann, J.S. (eds.), The greenhouse effect, climate change, and U.S. <strong>Forests</strong>. The Conservation Foundation, Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, 189-217. Solomon, A.M. & Shugart, H.H. (eds.), 1993. Vegetation dynamics and global change. Chapman & Hall, New York & London, 338 pp. Solomon, A.M., West, D.C. & Solomon, J.A., 1981. Simulat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> climate change and species immigration <strong>in</strong> forest succession. In: West, D.C., Shugart, H.H. & Botk<strong>in</strong>, D.B. (eds.), Forest succession: concepts and application, Spr<strong>in</strong>ger, New York a.o., 154-177. Solomon, A.M., Delcourt, H.R., West, D.C. & Blas<strong>in</strong>g, T.J., 1980. Test<strong>in</strong>g a simulation model for reconstruction <strong>of</strong> prehistoric forest-stand dynamics. Quat. Res., 14: 275-293. Solomon, A.M., Tharp, M.L., West, D.C., Taylot, G.E., Webb, J.W. & Trimble, J.L., 1984. Response <strong>of</strong> unmanaged forests to CO 2 -<strong>in</strong>duced climate change: Available <strong>in</strong>formation, <strong>in</strong>itial tests and data requirements. DOE/NBB-0053, National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. Comm., Spr<strong>in</strong>gfield, Virg<strong>in</strong>ia, 93 pp. Steffen, W.L., Walker, B.H., Ingram, J.S. & Koch, G.W. (eds.), 1992. Global change and terrestrial ecosystems: The operational plan. IGBP Report No. 21, Stockholm, 95 pp. Stevens, G.C. & Fox, J.F., 1991. The causes <strong>of</strong> treel<strong>in</strong>e. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 22: 177-191. Stra<strong>in</strong>, B.R. & Cure, D. (eds.), 1985. Direct effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g carbon dioxide on vegetation. U.S. Dept. <strong>of</strong> Energy, DO/ER-0238, Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, 286 pp. Swartzman, G.L., 1979. Simulation model<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> material and energy flow through an ecosystem: methods and documentation. Ecol. Modell<strong>in</strong>g, 7: 55-81. Swartzman, G.L. & Kaluzny, S.P., 1987. Ecological simulation primer. Macmillan, New York, 370 pp.
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
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The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
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The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
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The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
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The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
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The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
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The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
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The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
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The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
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The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
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The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
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The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
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The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
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The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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Parameter sensitivity & model valid
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- Page 147 and 148: 153 6 . Model applications Climatic
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- Page 151 and 152: Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
- Page 153 and 154: Model applications 159 simulation s
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- Page 161 and 162: Model applications 167 tainty inher
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- Page 173 and 174: Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
- Page 175 and 176: Conclusions 181 species composition
- Page 177 and 178: References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
- Page 179 and 180: References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
- Page 181 and 182: References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
- Page 183 and 184: References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
- Page 185 and 186: References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
- Page 187 and 188: References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
- Page 189: References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
- Page 193 and 194: References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
- Page 195 and 196: Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
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- Page 207 and 208: Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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- Page 213 and 214: Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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- Page 223 and 224: Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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- Page 227 and 228: Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
- Page 229 and 230: Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
- Page 231 and 232: Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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- Page 235 and 236: Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
- Page 237 and 238: Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)