On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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162 Chapter 6 400 Bever 400 Gotthard II Biomass (t/ha) 200 Biomass (t/ha) 200 0 Today IPCC Kienast DS Scenario 0 Today IPCC Kienast Scenario 400 Davos 400 Airolo Biomass (t/ha) 200 Biomass (t/ha) 200 0 Today IPCC Kienast DS Scenario 0 Today IPCC Kienast Scenario 400 Bern 400 Sion Biomass (t/ha) 200 Biomass (t/ha) 200 0 Today IPCC Kienast DS Scenario 0 Today IPCC Kienast Scenario Alnus viridis Acer pseudoplatanus Acer platanoides Pinus silvestris Pinus cembra Picea excelsa Larix decidua Abies alba Ulmus scabra Tilia platyphyllos Quercus robur Quercus petraea Populus nigra Fraxinus excelsior Fagus silvatica Castanea sativa
Model applications 163 At the site Bever (Fig. 6.5), there is hardly any agreement among the simulated forests under climatic change. The projections under the various climate scenarios range from spruce-maple (Picea excelsa – Acer spp.) forests under the regionalized scenario, which resemble those typical of today's montane belt (Ellenberg & Klötzli 1972), to species compositions as surprising as silver fir-chestnut-oak (Abies alba – Castanea sativa – Quercus spp.) forests under the IPCC scenario. However, there is one pattern that is common to all scenarios of future climate: All these steady-state species compositions differ radically from the species composition simulated under current climatic conditions, which is also typical of the actual vegetation at Bever. Thus, sites like Bever are likely to undergo drastic changes, but it appears to be impossible to give an indication of what the exact changes will be, even if we optimistically assume that the forest model does not contain any uncertainties. At the site St. Gotthard (Fig. 6.5), both scenarios agree (1) that the timberline will rise and this area would become afforested, and (2) that spruce (P. excelsa) would come to dominate these forests. However, the two scenarios produce slightly diverging results concerning the abundance of species such as silver fir (A. alba) and larch (Larix decidua). Comparing these findings to the results published by Kienast (1991), who used the FORECE model, a large discrepancy becomes evident: In the Kienast study, Pinus cembra was abundant after the first 100 years of climatic change, which most probably represents an anomaly (cf. section 5.3). Moreover, the forests simulated in that study had very low biomass (around 100 t/ha) irrespective of the magnitude of climatic change, whereas FORCLIM simulates an aboveground biomass of almost 300 t/ha (Fig. 6.5). The low biomass obtained from FORECE probably is an artifact of the aboveground carrying capacity that was not adjusted, thus producing inconsistent results under climatic change (cf. section 2.3.2). At the site Davos (Fig. 6.5), all three climate scenarios induce a shift from the subalpine spruce (P. excelsa) forests prevailing today to forests where silver fir (A. alba), spruce, and beech (Fagus silvatica) are abundant. Thus, the model predicts an invasion of species that are typical of today's montane belt (Ellenberg & Klötzli 1972). Again, there are some differences among the various scenarios concerning the abundance of single species. Fig. 6.5 (facing page): Steady-state species composition simulated by the FORCLIM-E/P model under various climate scenarios at six locations along a climate gradient in the European Alps. The scenarios of future climate are described in more detail in Tab. 6.2. Symbols: Today – Current climate; IPCC – IPCC scenario of climatic change; Kienast – Climate scenario as used by Kienast (1991) for the year 2100; DS – Regionalized climate scenario obtained by the downscaling methodology (Gyalistras et al. 1994).
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
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The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
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The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
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The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
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The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
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The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
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The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
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The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
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The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
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The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
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The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
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The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
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The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
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The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
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Page 105 and 106: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 115 and 116: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 147 and 148: 153 6 . Model applications Climatic
Page 149 and 150: Model applications 155 The simulate
Page 151 and 152: Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
Page 153 and 154: Model applications 159 simulation s
Page 155: Model applications 161 Simulation e
Page 159 and 160: Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
Page 161 and 162: Model applications 167 tainty inher
Page 163 and 164: Model applications 169 scenario cho
Page 165 and 166: Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
Page 167 and 168: Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
Page 169 and 170: Discussion 175 comparably small imp
Page 171 and 172: Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
Page 173 and 174: Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
Page 175 and 176: Conclusions 181 species composition
Page 177 and 178: References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
Page 179 and 180: References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
Page 181 and 182: References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
Page 183 and 184: References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
Page 185 and 186: References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
Page 187 and 188: References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
Page 189 and 190: References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
Page 191 and 192: References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
Page 193 and 194: References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
Page 195 and 196: Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
Page 197 and 198: Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
Page 199 and 200: Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
Page 201 and 202: Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
Page 203 and 204: Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
Page 205 and 206: Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
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Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
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Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
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Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
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Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
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Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
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Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
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Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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Appendix 231 (*********************
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Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
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Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
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Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
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Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
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Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 245 Example of a text file
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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