On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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148 Chapter 5 W U Michigan (E/P) 250 Ulmus spp. 200 Tsuga canadensis Thuja, Juniperus, Larix Biomass (t/ha) 150 100 Quercus spp. (N) Populus spp. Pinus strobus Pinus spp. Picea mariana/rubens Picea glauca 50 Fagus grandifolia Betula spp. Acer spp. 0 0 400 Year 800 1200 Abies spp. Fig. 5.11: Simulation results from FORCLIM for Western Upper Division, Michigan. grandifolia, which in reality is subject to considerable drought stress here, and Quercus macrocarpa (making up most of the northern oaks in Fig. 5.11), a very fire resistant and relatively shade intolerant species which is more typical of the oak savanna towards the prairie-forest border of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The increase of both species diversity and total above-ground biomass simulated by FORCLIM appears to be realistic (DeAngelis et al. 1981), and the species composition simulated by this model agrees more with the descriptions of near-natural forests of the area (Rowe 1972, Küchler 1975, Frelich & Lorimer 1991) than the FORENA simulations (Solomon 1986). NORTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN DECIDUOUS FOREST Fig. 5.12 gives an overview of the steady-state species composition along a gradient from the northern to the southwestern deciduous forests; the climate is characterized by strongly increasing temperature and precipitation, but at the same time also increasing drought stress. The forest simulated at Central Lower Michigan (Fig. 5.12) is in the transition zone from the sugar maple-eastern hemlock forests typical of locations in the north (Fig. 5.11) to the oak-hickory forests characteristic of locations further south (Fig. 5.12 & 5.13). Comparing these results to the ones from Western Upper Michigan
Parameter sensitivity & model validation 149 Northern & western deciduous forests Biomass (t/ha) 300 200 100 0 C L Michigan W C Ohio W Missouri S C Arkansas Site Tsuga canadensis Tilia spp. Quercus spp. (S) Quercus spp. (N) Juglans spp. Ilex opaca Fraxinus spp. Fagus grandifolia Celtis laevigata Castanea dentata Carya spp. Betula spp. Acer spp. Fig. 5.12: Species composition of northern and western deciduous forests in eastern North America as estimated by the FORCLIM-E/P model. (Fig. 5.11), major differences are (1) the disappearance of Thuja, Picea, and Abies species; (2) a strong decrease of Acer saccharum; (3) an increase in the biomass of Fagus grandifolia and northern oaks; (4) the appearance of southern genera, such as Carya, Fraxinus, Juglans, Juniperus, and Tilia. The FORCLIM model succeeds well simulating these transition forests (Küchler 1975). The forest simulated for West Central Division, Ohio, is dominated by northern oaks and hickory species (Fig. 5.12). Chestnut (Castanea dentata) attains some importance, whereas the abundance of hemlock decreases with decreasing latitude; in fact, it should be less abundant here than simulated by FORCLIM, if not absent entirely. FORENA and FORCLIM agree to a large extent on the composition of near-natural forests of this area (Solomon 1986). The Western Missouri area is characterized by open, almost woodland structured forests, a feature that is due to moisture stress, which is not simulated with the generous assumption of 30 cm field capacity (Fig. 5.12). Thus, total biomass increases compared to the Ohio area, which is not realistic. Possibly for the same reason FORCLIM simulates Fagus grandifolia, which is absent from this area. Moreover, FORCLIM produces small amounts of Tsuga canadensis although the species should be absent at these latitudes and longitudes. However, the dominance of oak, hickory, and chestnut, including the exact
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
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The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
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The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
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The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
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The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
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The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
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The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
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The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
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The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
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The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
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The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
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The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
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The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
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The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
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Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 91 and 92: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 115 and 116: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 141: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 147 and 148: 153 6 . Model applications Climatic
Page 149 and 150: Model applications 155 The simulate
Page 151 and 152: Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
Page 153 and 154: Model applications 159 simulation s
Page 155 and 156: Model applications 161 Simulation e
Page 157 and 158: Model applications 163 At the site
Page 159 and 160: Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
Page 161 and 162: Model applications 167 tainty inher
Page 163 and 164: Model applications 169 scenario cho
Page 165 and 166: Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
Page 167 and 168: Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
Page 169 and 170: Discussion 175 comparably small imp
Page 171 and 172: Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
Page 173 and 174: Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
Page 175 and 176: Conclusions 181 species composition
Page 177 and 178: References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
Page 179 and 180: References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
Page 181 and 182: References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
Page 183 and 184: References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
Page 185 and 186: References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
Page 187 and 188: References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
Page 189 and 190: References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
Page 191 and 192: References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
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References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
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Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
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Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
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Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
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Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
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Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
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Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
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Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
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Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
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Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
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Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
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Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
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Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
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Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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Appendix 231 (*********************
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Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
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Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
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Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
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Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
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Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 245 Example of a text file
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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