On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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134 Chapter 5 FORECE Picea excelsa T (°C) P (mm/yr) FORC LIM-E/P FORC LIM-E/P/S T (°C) T (°C) P (mm/yr) P (mm/yr) Fig. 5.4: Contour plot of Picea excelsa biomass [t/ha] as simulated by FORECE (top), FORCLIM-E/P (bottom left), and FORCLIM-E/P/S (bottom right). Comparing the distribution of several dominating tree species from Fig. 5.1 with the simulated biomass distributions, it becomes evident that extremely steep gradients are characteristic of FORECE: In this model, P. excelsa is excluded from the area where T l < 2 °C although it should approach the upper timberline in moist areas (Fig. 5.4). There is a similarly steep gradient of its biomass when approaching 5 °C. In both FOR- CLIM variants, the species grows up to the alpine timberline (Fig. 5.4) and decreases more smoothly towards higher temperatures, conforming to the phytosociological expectations (Fig. 5.1). However, both FORECE and FORCLIM run into difficulties in the area centered around 6 °C and 700 mm, where P. excelsa should dominate; both models exclude this species due to the occurrence of strong droughts, which may be unrealistic. It should be noted that FORECE predicts the occurrence of P. excelsa somewhat further into
Parameter sensitivity & model validation 135 FORECE Pinus cembra T (°C) P (mm/yr) FORC LIM-E/P FORC LIM-E/P/S T (°C) T (°C) P (mm/yr) P (mm/yr) Fig. 5.5: Contour plot of Pinus cembra biomass [t/ha] as simulated by FORECE (top), FORCLIM-E/P (bottom left), and FORCLIM-E/P/S (bottom right). this area; however, neither model corresponds well to the scheme in Fig. 5.1. The major difference between FORCLIM-E/P and FORCLIM-E/P/S is that the biomass of P. excelsa is reduced to some extent when soil nitrogen availability is treated explicitly (Fig. 5.4), because this species is not tolerant of the low nitrogen availability simulated during certain phases of the gap dynamics cycle (cf. section 4.3). The FORECE model suggests that P. cembra dominates under all precipitation regimes when T l is less than 2 °C (Fig. 5.5), although P. excelsa should approach the alpine timberline in moist regions (Fig. 5.1). With both FORCLIM variants P. cembra is abundant in the dry (continental) subalpine zone, and it is codominant close to the alpine timberline in the other areas (Fig. 5.5), a pattern also supported e.g. by Renner (1982).
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
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The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
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The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
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The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
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The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
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The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
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The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
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The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
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The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
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The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
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The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
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The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
Page 77 and 78: The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
Page 79 and 80: The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
Page 81 and 82: The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
Page 83 and 84: The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
Page 85 and 86: The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
Page 87 and 88: The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
Page 89 and 90: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 115 and 116: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 127: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 147 and 148: 153 6 . Model applications Climatic
Page 149 and 150: Model applications 155 The simulate
Page 151 and 152: Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
Page 153 and 154: Model applications 159 simulation s
Page 155 and 156: Model applications 161 Simulation e
Page 157 and 158: Model applications 163 At the site
Page 159 and 160: Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
Page 161 and 162: Model applications 167 tainty inher
Page 163 and 164: Model applications 169 scenario cho
Page 165 and 166: Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
Page 167 and 168: Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
Page 169 and 170: Discussion 175 comparably small imp
Page 171 and 172: Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
Page 173 and 174: Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
Page 175 and 176: Conclusions 181 species composition
Page 177 and 178: References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
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References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
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References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
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References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
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References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
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References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
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References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
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References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
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References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
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Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
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Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
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Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
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Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
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Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
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Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
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Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
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Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
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Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
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Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
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Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
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Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
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Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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Appendix 231 (*********************
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Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
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Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
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Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
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Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
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Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 245 Example of a text file
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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