On the Ecology of Mountainous Forests in a Changing Climate: A ...

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112 Chapter 4 Botkin 1993), but most of them include a stochastic weather generator (one prominent exception is FORSKA-2, Prentice et al. 1991, 1993). At the sites Bever and Sion, the availability of nitrogen simulated by FORCLIM-S does not have a strong influence on the simulated species composition. At the other two sites, the simulated effect of nitrogen availability on forest succession is debatable: At Davos, the biomass peak of 600 t/ha, which is made up mainly of L. decidua, appears little plausible for a subalpine site that should be characterized by low-biomass forests (Fig. 4.10). At the site Bern, the simulated nitrogen availability leads to a considerable increase of the biomass of Quercus spp. (Fig. 4.11), which may be questionable because Quercus spp. should reach large biomass only under warm and dry conditions, for which the site Bern is not characteristic (Ellenberg & Klötzli 1972). Based on these considerations it is concluded that the model variant FORCLIM-E/P/S is not more trustworthy than the model variant FORCLIM-E/P and does not offer clear advantages over the variant E/P. Thus, in the subsequent investigations the variant FORCLIM-E/P will be used as the standard model setup. The steady-state species compositions simulated by this model variant at all the sites along the transect in the European Alps are given in Fig. 4.12. Typical examples of the transient behaviour of FORCLIM- E/P at subalpine sites are given in Fig. 4.8 (Bever, Davos). Fig. 4.13 shows the transient behaviour of the model at the montane site Airolo, which will be used in the sensitivity analysis of FORCLIM. The behaviour typical of low-elevation sites is given in Fig. 4.9 (Bern) together with that of a dry central alpine site (Sion, Fig. 4.9). The steady-state species composition simulated at the insubrian site Locarno (Fig. 4.12) does not differ strongly from the one simulated at the site Bern, which may be questionable (Ellenberg 1986). The same goes for the species composition simulated at the site Montana (Fig. 4.12). The reasons for this behaviour will be elaborated in detail in section 5.3. Finally, it may be concluded that the FORCLIM model produces species compositions that are as plausible as the ones obtained from its predecessor model FORECE (Kienast 1987). At low-elevation sites (e.g. Bern), the FORCLIM simulation results are even more plausible (Ellenberg & Klötzli 1972, Ellenberg 1986). Further tests of the performance of both models will be conducted in section 5.3.
Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transect in the European Alps 113 Site Zone Species composition Elev. T P (m) (°C) (cm/yr) Cleuson Bever south Bever north Davos S S S S 2166 1.3 101.7 1712 1.5 84.1 1712 1.5 84.1 1590 3.0 100.7 Adelboden Airolo M M 1325 5.5 135.1 1149 6.1 161.6 Huttwil Bern Schaffh'n Basel L L L L 639 8.1 128.7 570 8.4 100.6 457 8.6 88.2 317 9.2 78.4 Montana Sion C C 1495 5.8 92.9 542 9.7 59.7 Locarno I 379 11.8 184.6 0 100 200 300 400 Biomass (t/ha) Abies alba Larix decidua Picea excelsa Pinus cembra Pinus silvestris Acer platanoides Acer pseudoplatanus Castanea sativa Fagus silvatica Fraxinus excelsior Populus nigra Quercus petraea Quercus robur Tilia platyphyllos Ulmus scabra Fig. 4.12: Steady-state species composition as simulated by the model FORCLIM-E/P along a transect in the European Alps. Zones are S – subalpine, M – upper montane, L – colline (Swiss Plateau), C – central alpine, I – insubrian (Ellenberg 1986). “Elev.” denotes the elevation of the sites, “T” stands for the long-term annual mean temperature, and “P” for the long-term annual precipitation sum at the sites. The steady states were calculated by averaging the output from 200 patches between the years 1000 and 1200.
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Diss. ETH No. 10638 On the Ecology
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ii Table of contents A BSTRACT.....
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iv APPENDIX .......................
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vi Harald BUGMANN, 1994: On the eco
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viii Harald BUGMANN, 1994: Aspekte
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1 1 . Introduction 1.1 Climatic cha
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Introduction 3 1.2 Methods for the
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Introduction 5 in a changing climat
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Introduction 7 Their integrative ca
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Introduction 9 (1984) provides a mo
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Introduction 11 The main advantage
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13 2 . Analysis of existing forest
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Analysis of existing forest gap mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 45 carbon
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The forest model FORCLIM 47 TREE GR
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The forest model FORCLIM 49 gBFlag
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The forest model FORCLIM 51 Disturb
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The forest model FORCLIM 53 decay o
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The forest model FORCLIM 55 the est
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The forest model FORCLIM 57 3.3 Mod
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The forest model FORCLIM 59 Light a
Page 55 and 56: The forest model FORCLIM 61 Overall
Page 57 and 58: The forest model FORCLIM 63 D (cm)
Page 59 and 60: The forest model FORCLIM 65 a) b) c
Page 61 and 62: The forest model FORCLIM 67 Growth
Page 63 and 64: The forest model FORCLIM 69 Stress-
Page 65 and 66: The forest model FORCLIM 71 Tab. 3.
Page 67 and 68: The forest model FORCLIM 73 3.3.2 F
Page 69 and 70: The forest model FORCLIM 75 where k
Page 71 and 72: The forest model FORCLIM 77 NITROGE
Page 73 and 74: The forest model FORCLIM 79 peratur
Page 75 and 76: The forest model FORCLIM 81 of degr
Page 77 and 78: The forest model FORCLIM 83 microcl
Page 79 and 80: The forest model FORCLIM 85 Tab. 3.
Page 81 and 82: The forest model FORCLIM 87 3.4.3 F
Page 83 and 84: The forest model FORCLIM 89 All the
Page 85 and 86: The forest model FORCLIM 91 The mas
Page 87 and 88: The forest model FORCLIM 93 FORCLIM
Page 89 and 90: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 105: Behaviour of FORCLIM along a transe
Page 115 and 116: Parameter sensitivity & model valid
Page 147 and 148: 153 6 . Model applications Climatic
Page 149 and 150: Model applications 155 The simulate
Page 151 and 152: Model applications 157 6.2 Possible
Page 153 and 154: Model applications 159 simulation s
Page 155 and 156: Model applications 161 Simulation e
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Model applications 163 At the site
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Model applications 165 Bever Biomas
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Model applications 167 tainty inher
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Model applications 169 scenario cho
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Discussion 171 Finally, the analysi
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Discussion 173 bitrarily chosen par
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Discussion 175 comparably small imp
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Discussion 177 end of the 21st cent
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Conclusions 179 Ecological factors
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Conclusions 181 species composition
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References 183 Begon, M., Harper, J
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References 185 Burger, H., 1951. Ho
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References 187 Faber, P.J., 1991. A
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References 189 Huntley, B. & Birks,
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References 191 Leemans, R. & Prenti
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References 193 Olson, J.S., 1963. E
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References 195 Rudloff, W., 1981. W
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References 197 Smith, T.M., Leemans
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References 199 Whittaker, R.H., 195
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Appendix 201 II. Derivation of para
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Appendix 203 Tab. A-4: Tree species
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Appendix 205 Tab. A-7: Values for m
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Appendix 207 The minimum winter tem
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Appendix 209 Tab. A-11: Shade toler
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Appendix 211 Tab. A-14: Climatic pa
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Appendix 213 IV. Source code of the
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Appendix 215 FROM SimBase IMPORT De
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Appendix 217 END; (* IF *) prevDay
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Appendix 219 PROCEDURE InitializeFW
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Appendix 221 InstallSeparator( fMen
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Appendix 223 FROM FCPFileIO IMPORT
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Appendix 225 modelSp^.p.kHm := sens
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Appendix 227 DeclMV( meanLitt[leafS
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Appendix 229 Swiss Federal Institut
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Appendix 231 (*********************
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Appendix 233 BEGIN WITH sp^ DO d :=
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Appendix 235 Definition module FCPB
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Appendix 237 Purpose Simulation mod
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Appendix 239 END Immobilization; PR
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Appendix 241 CONST lem = 3; VAR ef:
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Appendix 243 Purpose Provides the b
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Appendix 245 Example of a text file
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Appendix 247 Tab. A-15: Lower end o
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Appendix 249 Tab. A-17: Percentage
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Appendix 251 Tab. A-19: Significant
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Appendix 253 VI. Derivation of para
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Appendix 255 Tab. A-21: Species-spe
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Appendix 257 Tab. A-22 (continued)
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