Systems Analysis of Zaragoza Urban Water - SWITCH - Managing ...
Systems Analysis of Zaragoza Urban Water - SWITCH - Managing ...
Systems Analysis of Zaragoza Urban Water - SWITCH - Managing ...
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<strong>Systems</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Zaragoza</strong> UWS<br />
Guillermo Penagos<br />
• Population in <strong>Zaragoza</strong> has increased in a 1% average during the last<br />
decade. There is a study about population increase projections, but it ends up<br />
in 2008. Therefore it is not clear the rate <strong>of</strong> population increase in the future<br />
years. Therefore this is an uncertain factor that strongly affects both resource<br />
consumption (water, chemical products, energy, etc) and pollution loads.<br />
4.4.3 Scenario analysis<br />
4.4.3.1 Setting Scenario<br />
Several combinations <strong>of</strong> the 4 factors considered as more uncertain and more<br />
important are possible. Table 6 shows three examples for possible scenarios.<br />
Climate change effects are considered as percentage <strong>of</strong> projected reduction <strong>of</strong><br />
water availability in the Ebro catchment by 2020 (Ayala-Carcedo, 2000).<br />
Table 6. Possible drivers scenarios for Zarzgoza UWS<br />
Scenario<br />
Climate<br />
change<br />
<strong>Water</strong> use<br />
upstream<br />
Population<br />
Classification<br />
Sc1 0% < < best unlikely<br />
Sc2 -6% = = bad unlikely<br />
Sc3 -13% > 10% 1% worst likely<br />
Scenario Sc3 can be considered likely in every aspect since:<br />
• Climate change is expected to reduce water availability in the Ebro basin in<br />
40% to 2060 which means 13% by 2020 if a constant reduction rate is<br />
considered (Ayala-Carcedo, 2000).<br />
• The National Irrigation Plan that is about to be implemented in the years to<br />
come aims to increase 10% <strong>of</strong> current irrigated area in Spain by 2015 (MAPA,<br />
2007), which directly means 10% more water abstraction upstream from<br />
<strong>Zaragoza</strong> because irrigation is already the major water consumer in the Ebro<br />
Catchment.<br />
• <strong>Zaragoza</strong> urbanization plan assumes that city will continue expanding and<br />
therefore it is very likely that population will continue increasing.<br />
4.4.3.2 Assumptions for Scenario analysis<br />
<strong>Zaragoza</strong> sustainability vision will be analyzed for the time horizon 2020 under Sc3<br />
scenario considering climate change and Spanish national policies on water as major<br />
drivers. Due to time constraints, other likely scenarios are not analyzed. Under Sc3<br />
scenario, several assumptions that can be considered realistic are made:<br />
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