Systems Analysis of Zaragoza Urban Water - SWITCH - Managing ...

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Systems Analysis of Zaragoza UWS Guillermo Penagos Hydropower Generation Agriculture Climate change Upstream abstraction Upstream pollution Insufficient raw water quantity and quality Population growth People's consumption petterns Aging infrastructure Increased industrialization Limitations of existing technology Drinking Water Treatment Inefficiency Inefficient water use and water losses Insufficient pollution removal from sewage Eficiency Urban Water System Focus problem Excesive resource consumption High pollution loads to the environment Figure 18. An exercise of problem tree analysis for Zaragoza. The core problem would be to improve the effectiveness and the efficiency of the UWS. The drivers identified in figure 18 are classified in figure 19 by a matrix of uncertainty vs importance. The criteria for such classification are described next. Increasing importance More important – less uncertain • Urbanization • Availability of funds • Dependence on fossil fuels • Existing infrastructure Less important – less uncertain • DWT and WWT technologies Increasing uncertainty More important – more uncertain • Climate change • Water abstraction use • Population increase Less important – more uncertain • Storm water Figure 19. Matrix of uncertainty vs importance to classify drivers of Zaragoza UWS sustainability 4.4.1 Criteria for classification of drivers 4.4.1.1 Less important – less uncertain • Introduction of new DWT and/or WWT technologies is not planned for Zaragoza during the next decade since current infrastructure is being upgraded and costs will still be paid in the coming years. 44
Systems Analysis of Zaragoza UWS Guillermo Penagos 4.4.1.2 Less important – more uncertain • According to data analyzed in this report, storm water does not seem to be a determining issue for the environmental performance of Zaragoza UWS, which is also logic considering precipitation and evapotranspiration in this region. Given the erratic precipitation patterns that characterize Zaragoza, the uncertainty level is also high. 4.4.1.3 More important – less uncertain • Urbanization in Zaragoza is increasing, but it is planned, therefore its uncertainty level is low, its importance for the environmental performance of Zaragoza UWS is high. • Availability of funds for improving the system is an important issue, but it is assured for the upgrading plans and the education campaigns that are already in place. • From the data presented here it is evident that the dependency on fossil fuels for electricity production in Spain is still high and it is an important component of the UWS environmental impacts. However Spain has signed the Kyoto protocol and there are already plans to expand the electricity production from renewable sources. Figure 20 shows the expected composition of electric power production market projected by the National Plan on Energy proposed by 2015 in Spain (Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio, 2007). This composition will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and also reduces atmospheric emissions from 436 to 320 ton Gwh -1 . 45
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