July 2010 - Swinburne University of Technology

JULY 2010 swinburne
Dr Darryl Biggar, consulting economist at
the AER, says this is an issue for deregulated
electricity markets around the world. What
has been lacking is a tool with sufficient
computational power to model all of the
components of electricity generation, delivery
and consumption and the ability to measure
how investment in transmission capacity
would affect marketplace competition.
The variables that determine this are
numerous and require complex computer
modelling that can integrate both engineering
and economic factors – two quite disparate
matrices.
This is where Mohammad Hesamzadeh
steps in. Though still to formally complete his
PhD (on the economics of energy markets)
under his supervisor, Dr Nasser Hosseinzadeh,
who leads Swinburne’s Power Engineering
Research Group, Mr Hesamzadeh has already
published 15 research papers, five journal
papers and has three others under review,
bringing international attention to his groundbreaking
work.
His achievement has been to develop the
first computer model, and future software
tool, that can assimilate the engineering
parameters of electricity generation, the
economics of wholesale and retail electricity
markets, and the scale of transmission
networks needed to join them all together.
The unique aspect of Mr Hesamzadeh’s
approach is that he has been able to
conceptualise, intuitively, both the
engineering and the economic variables and
then undertake the painstaking process of
developing a mathematical model that melds
them into a functional management tool.
A measure of just how difficult this has
been, and why it has never been previously
achieved, is that Mr Hesamzadeh has been
working 12 hours a day, seven days a week,
for three years on this project, conceiving,
writing, testing, reworking and retesting
complex mathematical equations.
He quips with a wry smile that it has been
“brain eating” and that he is exhausted …
then adds that the model so far developed has
actually really only brought him to another
starting point. He feels the progressive
introduction of renewable energy from a mix of
generation sources will present more challenges
for market regulators. He would also like to test
his modelling on other complex, environmentdictated
markets, such as water.
To develop a model able to cope
with numerous, fluctuating scenarios
Mr Hesamzadeh has drawn on advanced
computer algorithms, which draw on ideas
from genetics and gaming principles (such
as those that allow optimisation based
on a sequential-move game to operate
concurrently within a simultaneous-move
game) to find the best strategies in a complex
range of interactions.
Electricity producers and sellers
effectively become dynamic ‘players’ in a
giant multi-faceted market game. And in the
real world there is also the unknown impact
of the Australian Government’s proposed
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and
Renewable Energy Target.
While building the model, Mr Hesamzadeh
has worked closely with industry specialists,
particularly Dr Darryl Biggar at the AER,
testing his model on real-world conditions.
Dr Biggar says Mr Hesamzadeh has made
an important step towards giving regulators a
tool for more accurate cost-benefit analyses
of transmission investments and the impact
on market competition.
“The next step will be to see if what
has worked on a comparatively small-scale
network of about 20 generators will still work
with the added complexities posed by a real
world network of 200 generators,” he says.
It was the opportunity to work more
closely with the AER and Dr Biggar on
actual scenarios that encouraged both
Mr Hesamzadeh and Dr Hosseinzadeh to
move to Swinburne. Both were previously
at Central Queensland University, where
Mr Hesamzadeh started his research in
2007. His co-supervisor there was Professor
Peter Wolfs, now at Curtin University of
Technology in Western Australia.
Mr Hesamzadeh had earlier graduated
(top of class) at Shiraz University in Iran,
with a diploma in mathematics, a degree in
electrical engineering and a masters degree
in science. He came to Australia under an
International Postgraduate Research Award.
Mr Hesamzadeh hopes the Australian
electricity market will soon be the first to
benefit from what he has achieved, though
Dr Hosseinzadeh points out that others, such
as the Californian and European market
regulators, are also interested.
His long-term ambition is to stay in
research. “I have enjoyed the challenge of
the past three years. What we have achieved
will be good for Australia … and it is
rewarding to have created the beginning – a
new approach to modelling – that will be
good for science,” he says. ••
* Brad Collis is author of Snowy – The
Making of Modern Australia, the history of
the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Scheme.
CONTACT. .
Swinburne University of Technology
1300 275 788
magazine@swinburne.edu.au
www.swinburne.edu.au/magazine
Fast facts
ADVANCED SOLAR FACILITY LAUNCHED
• The Victoria-Suntech Advanced Solar Facility (VSASF), launched in
Melbourne in June, aims to develop the next generation of solar cells.
The facility, a collaborative venture between Swinburne University of
Technology and Suntech Power Holdings, one of the world’s leading
producers of solar panels, has been partially funded by a $3 million grant
under the Victorian Science Agenda Investment Fund. The collaboration will
provide a platform for the partners to commercialise NANOPLAS,
a nanoplasmonic solar cell technology developed at
Swinburne. The new cell technology will allow for the efficient collection
of solar energy, which could make them twice as efficient as the
current generation of cells and significantly less costly to produce and
therefore use.
VOTERS AGAINST POPULATION GROWTH
• More than two-thirds of Australian voters are against population growth
according to new data from the 2009-10 Australian Survey of Social
Attitudes. The survey, held from December 2009 to February 2010 and
administered by the Australian Social Science Data Archives at the Australian
National University, drew on a random sample of 3142 voters. The data,
analysed by Swinburne researcher Associate Professor Katharine Betts,
shows that 69 per cent of voters believe Australia does not
need more people, while 31 per cent believe it does. It also shows
that: women are more likely to want a stable population than men (75 per
cent compared to 62 per cent); voters living in Queensland are more likely to
say no to growth (73 per cent) than voters in other areas; and voters living
in the ACT are the least likely to say no to growth (50 per cent). Voters who
wanted growth tended to give economic reasons, while those who wanted
stability emphasised the need to train our own skilled workers and the need
to protect the environment.
‘MISSION CO2’ GAME LAUNCHED
• Online energy and water-saving game ‘Mission CO2’ has been launched to
encourage people to reduce their impact on the environment. Swinburne and
the savewater! ® Alliance teamed up to create the interactive resource aimed
at creating real-world behavioural changes in Australian teenagers. ‘Mission
CO2’ covers the top 70 energy and water-saving ideas, giving teenagers
practical tips to use around the house. The educational resource
features seven characters, the ‘Carbon Tradies’, who
guide players through a 3-D home setting, saving water and energy,
reducing waste and choosing efficient transport. Through online play, users
learn tips to help them in conserving resources in daily life.
See www.missionco2.com
A MILLION WOMEN TO TAKE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
• Swinburne is a major partner in the ‘1 Million Women’ campaign, a
national initiative created by the non-profit, non-partisan group Climate
Coolers that aims to inspire one million Australian women to
take practical action on climate change by cutting one
million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the main greenhouse
pollutant causing global warming. Women, who make 70 per cent of
purchasing decisions in the home, are encouraged to make changes to the
way they live, shop, commute, travel and buy to enable them to reduce their
emissions by at least one tonne of CO 2 within a year. The website provides
guidance on CO 2 saving activities and enables participants to track their
progress.
Women can join the campaign at www.1millionwomen.com.au
5