July 2010 - Swinburne University of Technology

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swinburne JULY 2010 SUSTAINABILITY 4 Switched-on scholar masters the power game We mostly take electricity for granted, but its delivery, affordability and reliability are constantly challenged, and now comes the puzzle of how to also fit in new ‘green’ technologies BY BRAD COLLIS* Swinburne PhD student Mohammad Hesamzadeh is researching the economics of energy markets. PHOTO: PAUL JONES PhD STUDENT Mohammad Hesamzadeh is already highly regarded as an electrical engineer. He is also building a reputation as an astute, albeit self-taught, energy market economist until he finds time for another degree. Add to that a genius for complex mathematical algorithms and you have a young Swinburne University of Technology researcher who soon may be directly responsible for keeping electricity prices down, vital energygeneration investment up, and the expansion of critical infrastructure such as transmission networks attuned to actual, not estimated, need. These are the sought, but rarely achieved, outcomes from the entwined engineering and economic elements that underpin something we take for granted – electricity at the flick of a switch. But keeping electricity affordable, reliable and sustainable in a deregulated and highly competitive national market, when pressure is also building to make room for new sources of ‘green’ electricity that are not yet economic, is a gargantuan task. In fact, finding the right balance within a system in which demand, supply and price are changing every few minutes, almost amounts to guesswork. The consequence, not surprisingly, is a suspicion that millions of dollars are probably leaking from the economy through inefficient energy match-ups. One of the keys to balancing market competition with sufficient profits to encourage continued industry investment, plus accommodate new resources such as wind and solar farms, is the transmission network that interconnects all players. In the wash-up of electricity market deregulation which took place in the late 1990s, the transmission network remains a monopoly (government) infrastructure used by a spread of highly competitive privatesector generators, wholesalers and retailers. Management and the timely improvement of the transmission network is potentially the best mechanism for ensuring fair, profitable electricity trading, but until Mohammad Hesamzadeh’s work there has been no formula or modelling tool for accurately exercising this control. For example, an issue for the market regulator – the Australian Energy Regulator Key points Electricity market deregulation has increased the complexity of balancing supply, reliability and stable pricing. Numerous engineering and economic factors have to be accommodated in investment and infrastructure planning. All countries with deregulated electricity markets have struggled to find a functional management model. Swinburne PhD student Mohammad Hesamzadeh is researching the economics of energy markets. Power research The Swinburne Power Engineering Group, led by Dr Nasser Hosseinzadeh, focuses on two areas: renewable energy systems, and power system development and economics. The group works closely with the Australian Power Institute, the Australian Energy Market Operator, the CIGRE Australian Panel on System Development and Economics, and the Australian Energy Regulator. (AER) – is the potential for a large generator to actually restrain supply when transmission networks are close to capacity (such as during a heat wave) to drive up spot prices. But how do authorities (who represent consumers) keep transmission capacity one step ahead of such an unpredictable demand-supply scenario? Transmission networks are also critical for efficiently bringing new renewable energy online, but again there is no ready-made formula for accurately planning the capacity, location and timing of new transmission investments.
JULY 2010 swinburne Dr Darryl Biggar, consulting economist at the AER, says this is an issue for deregulated electricity markets around the world. What has been lacking is a tool with sufficient computational power to model all of the components of electricity generation, delivery and consumption and the ability to measure how investment in transmission capacity would affect marketplace competition. The variables that determine this are numerous and require complex computer modelling that can integrate both engineering and economic factors – two quite disparate matrices. This is where Mohammad Hesamzadeh steps in. Though still to formally complete his PhD (on the economics of energy markets) under his supervisor, Dr Nasser Hosseinzadeh, who leads Swinburne’s Power Engineering Research Group, Mr Hesamzadeh has already published 15 research papers, five journal papers and has three others under review, bringing international attention to his groundbreaking work. His achievement has been to develop the first computer model, and future software tool, that can assimilate the engineering parameters of electricity generation, the economics of wholesale and retail electricity markets, and the scale of transmission networks needed to join them all together. The unique aspect of Mr Hesamzadeh’s approach is that he has been able to conceptualise, intuitively, both the engineering and the economic variables and then undertake the painstaking process of developing a mathematical model that melds them into a functional management tool. A measure of just how difficult this has been, and why it has never been previously achieved, is that Mr Hesamzadeh has been working 12 hours a day, seven days a week, for three years on this project, conceiving, writing, testing, reworking and retesting complex mathematical equations. He quips with a wry smile that it has been “brain eating” and that he is exhausted … then adds that the model so far developed has actually really only brought him to another starting point. He feels the progressive introduction of renewable energy from a mix of generation sources will present more challenges for market regulators. He would also like to test his modelling on other complex, environmentdictated markets, such as water. To develop a model able to cope with numerous, fluctuating scenarios Mr Hesamzadeh has drawn on advanced computer algorithms, which draw on ideas from genetics and gaming principles (such as those that allow optimisation based on a sequential-move game to operate concurrently within a simultaneous-move game) to find the best strategies in a complex range of interactions. Electricity producers and sellers effectively become dynamic ‘players’ in a giant multi-faceted market game. And in the real world there is also the unknown impact of the Australian Government’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and Renewable Energy Target. While building the model, Mr Hesamzadeh has worked closely with industry specialists, particularly Dr Darryl Biggar at the AER, testing his model on real-world conditions. Dr Biggar says Mr Hesamzadeh has made an important step towards giving regulators a tool for more accurate cost-benefit analyses of transmission investments and the impact on market competition. “The next step will be to see if what has worked on a comparatively small-scale network of about 20 generators will still work with the added complexities posed by a real world network of 200 generators,” he says. It was the opportunity to work more closely with the AER and Dr Biggar on actual scenarios that encouraged both Mr Hesamzadeh and Dr Hosseinzadeh to move to Swinburne. Both were previously at Central Queensland University, where Mr Hesamzadeh started his research in 2007. His co-supervisor there was Professor Peter Wolfs, now at Curtin University of Technology in Western Australia. Mr Hesamzadeh had earlier graduated (top of class) at Shiraz University in Iran, with a diploma in mathematics, a degree in electrical engineering and a masters degree in science. He came to Australia under an International Postgraduate Research Award. Mr Hesamzadeh hopes the Australian electricity market will soon be the first to benefit from what he has achieved, though Dr Hosseinzadeh points out that others, such as the Californian and European market regulators, are also interested. His long-term ambition is to stay in research. “I have enjoyed the challenge of the past three years. What we have achieved will be good for Australia … and it is rewarding to have created the beginning – a new approach to modelling – that will be good for science,” he says. •• * Brad Collis is author of Snowy – The Making of Modern Australia, the history of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Scheme. CONTACT. . Swinburne University of Technology 1300 275 788 magazine@swinburne.edu.au www.swinburne.edu.au/magazine Fast facts ADVANCED SOLAR FACILITY LAUNCHED • The Victoria-Suntech Advanced Solar Facility (VSASF), launched in Melbourne in June, aims to develop the next generation of solar cells. The facility, a collaborative venture between Swinburne University of Technology and Suntech Power Holdings, one of the world’s leading producers of solar panels, has been partially funded by a $3 million grant under the Victorian Science Agenda Investment Fund. The collaboration will provide a platform for the partners to commercialise NANOPLAS, a nanoplasmonic solar cell technology developed at Swinburne. The new cell technology will allow for the efficient collection of solar energy, which could make them twice as efficient as the current generation of cells and significantly less costly to produce and therefore use. VOTERS AGAINST POPULATION GROWTH • More than two-thirds of Australian voters are against population growth according to new data from the 2009-10 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes. The survey, held from December 2009 to February 2010 and administered by the Australian Social Science Data Archives at the Australian National University, drew on a random sample of 3142 voters. The data, analysed by Swinburne researcher Associate Professor Katharine Betts, shows that 69 per cent of voters believe Australia does not need more people, while 31 per cent believe it does. It also shows that: women are more likely to want a stable population than men (75 per cent compared to 62 per cent); voters living in Queensland are more likely to say no to growth (73 per cent) than voters in other areas; and voters living in the ACT are the least likely to say no to growth (50 per cent). Voters who wanted growth tended to give economic reasons, while those who wanted stability emphasised the need to train our own skilled workers and the need to protect the environment. ‘MISSION CO2’ GAME LAUNCHED • Online energy and water-saving game ‘Mission CO2’ has been launched to encourage people to reduce their impact on the environment. Swinburne and the savewater! ® Alliance teamed up to create the interactive resource aimed at creating real-world behavioural changes in Australian teenagers. ‘Mission CO2’ covers the top 70 energy and water-saving ideas, giving teenagers practical tips to use around the house. The educational resource features seven characters, the ‘Carbon Tradies’, who guide players through a 3-D home setting, saving water and energy, reducing waste and choosing efficient transport. Through online play, users learn tips to help them in conserving resources in daily life. See www.missionco2.com A MILLION WOMEN TO TAKE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE • Swinburne is a major partner in the ‘1 Million Women’ campaign, a national initiative created by the non-profit, non-partisan group Climate Coolers that aims to inspire one million Australian women to take practical action on climate change by cutting one million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the main greenhouse pollutant causing global warming. Women, who make 70 per cent of purchasing decisions in the home, are encouraged to make changes to the way they live, shop, commute, travel and buy to enable them to reduce their emissions by at least one tonne of CO 2 within a year. The website provides guidance on CO 2 saving activities and enables participants to track their progress. Women can join the campaign at www.1millionwomen.com.au 5
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July 2010 - Swinburne University of Technology

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